All Politics Voices

After a bruising battle with a tea party primary rival, GOP Sen. Pat Roberts looked set to hold his seat. But the momentum now appears to be with Independent Greg Orman, who is backed by Democrats and disaffected Republicans.

Top election forecast models put Democratic chances at keeping their Senate majority at from 33 percent to 56 percent. But don't place too much stock in such variations. Take a look under the hood of the models.

Presidents may understand the consequences of acting – and not acting – better than their advisers. Consider FDR's tussles with his Cabinet over a response to Hitler in the summer of 1941.

Journalists are taking a second look at how political scientists view American politics. One reason: the data on national elections and congressional votes is rich and accessible.

The 1968 race riots helped to recast the politics of the country. But what happened in Ferguson was not a partisan issue, and it won't be fixed by helping Democrats keep control of the Senate.

When we look at the data, veteran lawmakers represent their constituents in much the same way as 'new' lawmakers.

If President Obama's acting on his own on immigration before the election prompts more Republican voters to go to the polls in swing states, it could end up costing the Democrats the Senate. That's why he may put off executive action.

Jesse Benton, who also managed Ron Paul's 2008 and '12 presidential campaigns, said that he did not want to become a 'distraction' in Mitch McConnell's reelection bid.

Sam Wang gives Democrats a 72 percent chance of keeping control of the Senate. It's not a widely held view, but he did accurately predict every Senate race in 2012. Here's why the pundits may be underestimating Democrats this year.

Twitterverse explodes after President Obama's 'no strategy' gaffe of gaffes. Good to know that journalists covering the presidency are not the types to exaggerate an incident for the sake of wooing viewers or increasing site visits.

Even Republican women lawmakers seem to have difficulty communicating with women voters – and for the Republican Party, there don't appear to be any easy fixes.

The Islamic State is an unexpected challenge for the Obama White House. Still, presidents are not supposed to admit that they don't have a strategy for dealing with a huge national security problem.

If NATO reports are true, it would appear that Russia has decided to significantly ramp up its involvement in the rebellion in eastern Ukraine. Vladimir Putin apparently isn't fazed by economic sanctions. It's not clear what the West can do to deter him.

President Obama's statement that 'we don't have a strategy yet' for dealing with the Islamic State fired up critics. But if a more comprehensive military response is needed, Congress needs to be part of the discussion.

Data show that voters' opinions of Bill Clinton have a significant impact on their opinions of Hillary Clinton, and the connection is strongest among independents and Republicans.

According to one calculation, the United Kingdom would be the second-poorest US state. More than that, Americans are richer at almost every income level. The US just has more money.

The steady increase of US airstrikes against Islamic State targets in northern Iraq raises the prospect of a war powers fight with Congress on the eve of midterm elections – and none too soon.

Republicans need six seats to take back control of the Senate, but there is no sign yet that the GOP is headed for a massive win like what they saw in 2010 or what Democrats saw in 2006.

Fake quotations from famous people, no matter how often discredited, take on new life in campaign seasons. Get ready for the best line Lincoln never said: 'You cannot strengthen the weak by weakening the strong.'

Like the hapless Clark Griswold in the National Lampoon vacation film opus, US presidents can't get a break when it comes to taking a vacation. It's always the wrong time to appear to be away from affairs of state.