Next year promises significant change for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Iran, and Iraq. Washington acknowledged a setback in its strategy, scrapping its initial policy of forcing Israel to stop building illegal Jewish settlements on occupied Palestinian land. It couldn't convince Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his center-right coalition to accept a one-time, 90-day, partial freeze that applied only to the West Bank, and not East Jerusalem, even in exchange for $3 billion worth of fighter jets.
But Washington is changing its tack, shuttling between the two sides to discuss borders, security, and other key elements.
Iran and its nuclear program remains high on the global agenda, with tentative nuclear talks (led by the US) resuming in late January. On the face of it, the white-hot rhetoric between Iran and the US – at least as shouted by their most hard-line politicians – might appear to preclude any deal.
But other factors will shape the 2011 timeline: Iran continues to enrich uranium, now to 20 percent purity instead of just 3.5 percent. Some analysts say Stuxnet, a global computer virus, has affected enough Iranian computers and systems at nuclear facilities to set back its program by two years.
Iran faces four levels of UN Security Council sanctions – and vows that it can withstand more. One scenario for a deal between Washington and Tehran: Iran keeps its enrichment for nuclear fuel while agreeing to intensive safeguards to ensure no weapons effort.
In Iraq, some 50,000 American noncombat troops are set to leave by year's end – concluding the US occupation that began with the 2003 invasion and peaked in 2007, when the monthly civilian death toll reached 3,500. In November, monthly civilian deaths were down to 105.
US commanders say Iraqi forces are running the show. Still, the country faces many challenges in 2011 and for years to come. It has taken more than nine months to finalize a government after close elections in March. And as American forces begin to leave, attacks by Al Qaeda in Iraq are on the rise.
– Scott Peterson, Istanbul, Turkey, bureau chief
