US housing bounce officially over

With data from the country's strongest selling months now reported, it's clear that the government sponsored housing bounce is over.

Tuesday’s release of the S&P/Case-Shiller (CSI) home price indices for December 2009 reported that the non-seasonally adjusted Composite-10 price index declined slightly since November further indicating that the government sponsored housing bounce has drawn to a close.

It’s important to remember that the CSI data is lagged by two months and that today’s results represent the trend of prices paid from home sales closed between October-December of 2009.

Now that the strongest selling months have been reported, look for all remaining CSI releases until early spring to continue to indicate notable price weakness coming from typical seasonal declines as well as extra-seasonal declines as a result of reduced demand from activity that was “stimulated” forward into the summer and early fall by the tax sham.

Also, looking at the 1990s-era comparison charts below its obvious that even after the main downward thrust has been reached, the housing markets have a long tough slog ahead with the ultimate bottom likely many years out…. Or if we are currently experiencing the Japanese model… decades out.

Further, is important to remember that the 90s housing recovery played out against the backdrop of a truly unique period of growth in the wider economy fueled primarily by novel and ubiquitous technological change (cell phones, internet, personal computers, telecommunications, etc).

Today, we may not be so lucky.

The 10-city composite index declined 2.41% as compared to December 2008 while the 20-city composite declined 3.08% over the same period.

Topping the list of regional peak decliners was Las Vegas at -55.54%, Phoenix at -50.52%, Miami at -47.07%, Detroit at -42.87% and Tampa at -41.67%.
Additionally, both of the broad composite indices show significant peak declines slumping -30.10% for the 10-city national index and -29.35% for the 20-city national index on a peak comparison basis.

To better visualize today’s results use Blytic.com and search for “case shiller”.

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