Why 2021 brings hope on climate change

Efforts to curb global warming have failed to meet the expectations of the Paris Agreement. But a new U.S. commitment gives a reason for optimism.

The Monitor's View

Buried in the $900 billion, 5,593-page economic stimulus bill recently passed by Congress – by far the longest bill ever passed by that body – lies a significant boost to efforts to address global warming: some $35 billion that will fund solar, wind, geothermal, and other clean energy programs. 

Is it a big deal? “This is perhaps the most significant climate legislation Congress has ever passed,” Grant Carlisle, a senior policy adviser at the Natural Resources Defense Council, told The Washington Post.

During his campaign President-elect Joe Biden vowed to make climate change one of his top priorities, along with defeating the pandemic and repairing its economic damage. These new funds give his efforts a kick-start.

So will some $40 billion in loans available to the Department of Energy, funds allotted to the agency but not used under the previous administration. 

Together they still represent a tiny fraction of the spending that will be needed to curb global warming in coming years. The Biden plan offsets some of that cost through programs that promote a robust clean energy economy, generating many new jobs. 

To what extent Congress will go along remains to be seen. Which party controls the Senate, to be determined by today’s election of two senators in Georgia, will be a factor. But regardless of that outcome bipartisan cooperation will be important.

Dec. 12, 2020, marked five years since the adoption of the Paris Agreement, signed by nearly 200 countries, that called for vigorous efforts to cut climate-warming emissions. It seeks to halt global warming before it reaches an additional 1.5 degrees Celsius (or, at worst, 2 degrees C). Research and current models predict that exceeding these levels could have disastrous effects on global weather. While some progress has been made, the 2 C threshold may be exceeded as early as 2034, the World Economic Forum says.

Mr. Biden has pledged that the United States will rejoin the Paris Agreement, which the U.S. left under President Donald Trump.

While the pandemic did cut world greenhouse gas emissions by an estimated 7% to 8% in 2020, emissions are expected to soar again as world economies recover. 

2020 also saw vast wildfires tear through forests from Australia to the U.S. West. Arctic sea ice shrank to an extent exceeded only once before. The Mojave Desert in the U.S. hit the highest temperature ever recorded, 54.4 degrees C (130 degrees Fahrenheit). And 2020 may be one of the two hottest years on record. 

Plenty of evidence can be cited raising concerns that global warming is already underway.

But new hope has emerged too. Earlier climate models assumed that global warming is baked into Earth’s future for decades, if not centuries, to come, regardless of what is done now. 

That no longer looks to be true. If greenhouse gas emissions can be brought down to net zero, the warming will level off, says climate scientist Joeri Rogelj at the Imperial College London, and “the climate will stabilize within a decade or two. There will be very little to no additional warming. Our best estimate is zero.”

That encouraging news should help dispel a sense of despair or hopelessness about climate change. The world is capable of making changes that will head off a disaster and assure a livable world in coming decades. 

2021 now becomes a crucial year to step up international efforts to bring about that brighter climate future.