Nimble US support of democratic bright spots

President Joe Biden’s policy of quickly aiding a country emerging from autocracy may meet its test after Thailand’s May election.

The Monitor's View

For more than a century, America’s posture in the world has been as defender of democracy. With democracy in decline over the past 17 years, the Biden administration wants to flip that script. A new policy aims to be “affirming” when a country begins to escape autocratic rule, nurturing it with quick economic aid and advice to prove to the people that open and fair democracy can be a better system for daily life.

So far, U.S. support of democratic bright spots has included the Dominican Republic, Moldova, Nepal, Tanzania, and Zambia. Yet it may face a difficult challenge in Thailand, a longtime American ally.

The Southeast Asian country, which has seen multiple coups against elected governments for decades, faces what is considered its most consequential election on May 14. A civilian political party, Pheu Thai, is far ahead in the polls in a contest for parliament’s elected lower chamber. If it wins enough seats, its victory might end the military-dominated government of Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, a former general who took power after a 2014 coup.

Mr. Prayuth has run the Thai economy into the ground. Yet he survived youth-led mass protests in 2020 that called for reform of Thailand’s constitutional monarchy and an end to the country’s conservative and elite establishment. Lately, he has seen defections, such as by longtime ally Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan, a former general.

“I’m beginning to grasp that it was wrong to think that people are unable to elect good and capable representatives to office,” Mr. Prawit wrote on Facebook. “The politicians, whom the elite look down on, actually understand the problems. These politicians are more reliable when people call for their help than other groups in the power structure.”

Mr. Prawit, who is running in the election with his own party, may be pivotal after the election in forming a ruling coalition and helping Thailand make a crucial transition. Should the United States be ready to offer massive aid during this probable transition, dispensing advice on political freedoms and taking other steps with speed?

One answer lies in a study of democratic bright spots that have occurred in the past decade. Eight of the 12 best performing ones have stemmed from pivotal elections – ones in which a democratically backsliding or stagnant government loses power at the ballot box – conclude scholars Thomas Carothers and Benjamin Feldman at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Thailand will serve as a test case for the United States in being nimble and catalytic when a window of reform opens. “Positive developments and possibilities for democracy are occurring around the world on a regular basis in all kinds of political systems,” write the two Carnegie scholars. As a country that has long seen elected leaders taken down in coups, Thailand may be ripe for a new approach.