Big leaps to escape Russia’s orbit

Armenia joins the International Criminal Court, the latest move among former Soviet states to affirm civic principles different from the Kremlin’s.

The Monitor's View

The Soviet Union, with its 15 states, collapsed more than three decades ago. Yet for 14 of those states, the struggle to escape Russia’s orbit and autocratic ways continues. The latest example is Armenia. Its parliament voted Tuesday to join the International Criminal Court, joining 123 other nations and obligating Armenia to arrest Russian leader Vladimir Putin on war crime charges if he sets foot in the country.

Like most former Soviet states, Armenia was shocked at last year’s invasion of Ukraine. It also saw how Russia, a treaty ally, failed last month to prevent Azerbaijan from taking by force an ethnic Armenian enclave within the recognized Azerbaijani border. Joining the International Criminal Court is Armenia’s way to deal with both events.

“Large parts of Armenian society, particularly young people, feel betrayed by Moscow and will probably drift out of Russia’s sphere of influence,” writes Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin, in the Financial Times.

As former Soviet states keep making moves to distance themselves from Moscow, Mr. Putin is becoming more isolated. In September, he was forced to visit the pariah state of North Korea to ask for military aid. “The world is getting smaller for the autocrat in the Kremlin,” said Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission.

Since the Ukraine invasion, Moldova has beefed up its defenses against Russian disinformation. In the Central Asian nation of Uzbekistan, many parents worry that Russian-language schools will teach Kremlin propaganda. Other countries in that region have sought to broaden ties with the West. In New York last month, Joe Biden became the first American president to meet the heads of state of the five Central Asian countries – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. Last year, many of those states welcomed tens of thousands of young Russian men fleeing the military draft.

In Kazakhstan, Russia’s war in Ukraine “has been jarring for many Kazakhs, including those whose first language is Russian,” sociologist Azamat Junisbai told The Beet news site. As a result, many Russian speakers in Kazakhstan are learning the Kazakh language in a sign of civil loyalty.

“The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine showed how values of democracy and civic engagement can unite people of different backgrounds and overcome heavy colonial legacies,” Botakoz Kassymbekova, a historian at the University of Basel, told The Beet. “Kazakh Russians play a pivotal role in post-colonial healing and a decolonized future, just as those who identify themselves as Kazakhs do.”

The responses to Russia’s aggression vary in its borderland states. Yet almost all are affirming an independence within even as they cope with a threat without.