A twist on Iran’s succession intrigue

The president’s death shifts the spotlight on the possible successors to the supreme leader. Will the people, wary of nepotism, accept a son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei?

The Monitor's View

Over the past 15 years of various protests in Iran, one theme has stood out: equality. First, that the ruled are equal to their rulers, especially in elections. Second, that women have a right equal to men on whether to wear a head covering. And third, that individuals must be judged equally by their qualities and talents, not by family ties and bloodlines, in gaining top state jobs.

That last line of protest – against hereditary privilege and nepotism – has surged since the death on Sunday of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash.

The president’s death has renewed speculation over who will succeed the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Mr. Raisi was a leading candidate. Now the spotlight has turned to the ayatollah’s second son, Mojtaba Khamenei, a low-ranking Shiite cleric who could become Iran’s third all-powerful theocrat since the Islamic Revolution in 1979 that toppled a monarchy.

More than equality – or the value of merit over kinship – is at stake. Any successor to the senior Khamenei, who has ruled for 35 years, could shift or reinforce Iran’s menacing role in the Middle East. He might also worsen or lessen the exodus of young Iranians seeking jobs abroad in part because of nepotism in business and government.

The junior Mojtaba, whose given name means “the chosen one,” has long served his father closely, especially in guiding Iran’s second-most-powerful institution, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and its vast security and business network. While the supreme leader often says Islam is against hereditary rule, he has carefully groomed his son for a leading role. Most of Iran’s history is about the personalization of power, whether secular or religious, and passing it on to relatives.

That tradition was openly challenged by political dissidents starting in 2018. They have used social media to expose the privileges that dominant families enjoy in government and business. The hashtag #WhereIsYourKid? demands that officials explain their children’s wealth or the jobs they hold. “Are [the kids] reaping the fruit of their own effort or eating from our riches?” wrote one activist on the social platform X. Official media have been forced to join in, challenging high-level nepotism.

Such a shift in public thinking weighs against the anointing of Mojtaba as the next leader.

As more Iranians demand equality in all aspects of life, a regime led by clerics is being advised by the people to select leaders from Iran’s vast talent pool, not from its gene pool. In nearly every protest, Iranians are embracing a key concept of sovereignty – that each individual is worthy and equal. They are laying a cornerstone for a free and fair democracy, perhaps one with a peaceful purpose.