How nearly 200 nations got to yes on climate action

The world’s nations agreed on Wednesday to transition away from the fossil fuels that power their economies but are heating the planet to temperatures that imperil current and future generations.

The deal, reached at an annual United Nations climate conference, represents the first-ever agreement by all countries to move away from the burning of oil, gas, and coal.

It stopped short, however, of calling for the “phaseout” of carbon-based fuels that many climate scientists say is necessary and that dozens of countries had demanded during the COP28 talks held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

“Fossil fuels finally faced a reckoning at the UN climate negotiations after three decades of dodging the spotlight,” World Resources Institute President Ani Dasgupta said in a statement. “This historic outcome marks the beginning of the end of the fossil fuel era.”

The final text called for “tripling renewable energy capacity globally” by 2030, doubling the pace of energy efficiency gains, and “accelerating efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power.” The reference to abatement – carbon capture technology that is nascent and not widely used – is a concession to fossil fuel producers who made their presence felt in Dubai, to the frustration of activists who questioned whether the hosts were on the side of climate science.

Whether COP28’s compromise agreement is sufficient to bend the curve in rising global emissions of greenhouse gases, which must fall substantially over the next few decades in order to limit temperature rises, is unclear. Countries recommitted in Dubai to the goal of a maximum warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2050 over preindustrial levels. But after a year of record high temperatures, that goal still seems elusive, given current levels of oil and gas consumption. The world has warmed by about 1.3 degrees Celsius, or 2.3 degrees Fahrenheit, since the 1800s.

In a social media post, U.N. Secretary General António Guterres took aim at oil-producing states that had resisted future limits. “To those who opposed a clear reference to phase out of fossil fuels during the #COP28 Climate Conference, I want to say: Whether you like it or not, fossil fuel phase out is inevitable,” Mr. Guterres said. “Let’s hope it doesn’t come too late.”

On Monday a draft text by the UAE was widely panned for a watered-down pledge to reduce fossil fuel production. Tense talks extended past a Tuesday noon deadline and stretched into Wednesday morning, as nations most vulnerable to climate change pushed for tougher language on fossil fuels, while oil-producing states led by Saudi Arabia held firm. The final declaration, which must be approved by all 198 countries and territories, commits parties to “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science.”

But the negotiations led by Sultan al-Jaber, a top UAE oil executive, were criticized by some countries for excluding their voices. Anne Rasmussen, Samoan representative and lead negotiator for the Alliance of Small Island States, said the COP28 presidency had approved the text before the group could coordinate its response. Ms. Rasmussen said in a statement that states would “return to their islands with the message that this process has failed us.” 

Show me the money

An immediate concern raised by activists and individual countries was over a lack of a formal commitment to providing financing for poor and developing countries for their transition to clean energy. At the start of the conference on Nov. 30, a fund was created to compensate vulnerable countries for “loss and damage” caused by climate change. That pledge is separate, however, from the trillions of dollars that must be mobilized for renewable energy systems, lest countries continue down the path of oil and gas extraction to provide for their populations.  

Host country UAE highlighted splashy pledges and side events in which countries unveiled nonbinding promises. The next COP (Conference of Parties) summit, to be held in Azerbaijan, will focus more on financing for green energy and adaptation. But the mixed signal sent from Dubai about wealthy countries’ readiness to contribute more is a setback, say observers.

“These are the elements that create trust. And if you don’t have all of those elements you don’t have the full trust,” Mary Robinson, the former president of Ireland who attended the talks, told BBC Radio 4 Wednesday.

The World Resources Institute and others estimate that in order to meet global emissions goals, the world needs $4.3 trillion a year in climate-related finance by 2030.

John Kerry, the U.S. climate envoy, hailed the Dubai agreement as a victory for multilateralism. “While nobody here will see their views completely reflected in a consensus document of so many nations, the fact is this document sends very strong messages to the world. ... People have taken individual interests and have attempted to define the common good.”

Food and forestry pledges

The announcement of a climate loss and damage fund, following through on a hard-fought win for developing nations at the 2022 COP held in Egypt, made headlines at the start of the talks. Parties to the talks have pledged around $700 million to it. However, experts say hundreds of billions of dollars are required and that it’s unclear whether these pledges are for grants or loans – a critical difference for debt-laden developing countries. The United States pledged a little over $20 million to developing countries through the fund.  

“Having a formal loss and damage fund that is not only under the [U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change] and the Paris Agreement but also recognized as an operating entity has a certain weight and significance,” says Liane Schalatek, associate director of the Heinrich Böll Foundation, a German think tank, in Washington. “But how much will it turn out to be of financial significance really remains to be seen,” she says, noting that pledges may be repurposed funds.

Another innovation at this year’s COP was addressing the carbon footprint of the global food industry. A declaration committed 150 countries to set ambitious targets on food in their national climate plans, and to the “containing and reducing harmful impacts” of the agricultural and food sectors on the climate. Signatories account for 76% of food-based greenhouse gases.  

However, the final text from the conference failed to make any mention of reducing emissions from food production systems. The communiqué did call for halting and reversing deforestation and conserving biodiversity, though such promises have been made in past talks.

Speaking to reporters in Dubai after the agreement was announced, U.N. climate chief Simon Stiell put a positive spin on the outcome and what it means going forward. “This agreement is an ambitious floor, not a ceiling,” he said. “So, the crucial years ahead must keep ramping up ambition and climate action.”