Trump guilty verdict marks first-ever criminal conviction for a former president

The felony conviction of former President Donald Trump by a New York jury Thursday sent the political world into uncharted territory, with potentially profound implications for the 2024 elections.

Mr. Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, was found guilty on all 34 counts of falsifying business records to cover up a sex scandal in an effort to influence the outcome of the 2016 election. 

The former president is expected to appeal the verdict, but the appeals process is likely to extend beyond the Nov. 5 election, legal experts say. Furthermore, the other three criminal trials Mr. Trump faces – two federal and one in Georgia state court – are not expected to begin before the election, if they take place at all. 

But Thursday’s conviction alone – the first ever of a former or current U.S. president – promises to boost Trump supporters’ belief in his long-standing contention that the legal system is weaponized against him. In the wake of the verdict, Mr. Trump’s fundraising website crashed due to high traffic, according to his campaign. And it adds yet another unique dimension to an American presidential campaign that was already unlike any other in history. 

“A conviction shows that no one is above the law, and Trump’s prediction that he could walk down Fifth Avenue and shoot someone and get away with it isn’t as accurate as he thought,” says Cheryl Bader, a criminal law professor at Fordham University and former assistant U.S. attorney for the District of New Jersey.

Speaking to reporters outside the Manhattan courthouse soon after hearing the verdict, Mr. Trump proclaimed his innocence and called it a “rigged, disgraceful trial.” The “real verdict,” he said, would come on Nov. 5 from the American people. “This is long from over,” he said.

The Biden campaign also was looking ahead to November’s vote. “Today’s verdict does not change the fact that the American people face a simple reality,” campaign communications director Michael Tyler said in a statement. “There is still only one way to keep Donald Trump out of the Oval Office: at the ballot box.”

How Trump conviction may affect the election

Going forward, just over five months from the Nov. 5 election, the routine will mix with the extraordinary, as the former president – and current presidential candidate – contends with continuing legal matters. 

But the fact is that, for now at least, his political opponents are likely to hammer on his status as a convicted felon. And to be clear, a felony conviction does not preclude Mr. Trump from running for or serving again as president.  

Pre-verdict, most voters were firm in their support for or opposition to Mr. Trump. And most said the verdict, however it went, would not sway their vote, according to an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll released Thursday.  

But in a tight presidential race, his conviction could still prove decisive by swaying even a relative few votes in battleground states. The NPR poll found that among “core Trump voter groups,” some voters would be less likely to vote for Mr. Trump if he were found guilty: small-town residents (17%), white people without college degrees (14%), rural dwellers (11%), and Republicans (10%). 

And over the course of the hush money trial, which began April 15, Mr. Trump has actually gained slightly – more than half a percentage point – in support among voters nationwide over President Joe Biden, according to the RealClearPolitics average of polls. As of May 30, Mr. Trump led President Biden by 1.5 percentage points. 

Another possibility is that people who had no intention of voting before the verdict may now opt to vote after all – either for or against Mr. Trump. 

Politicizing the judicial system?

How Mr. Biden plays the Trump verdict is another variable that could affect the political dynamic going forward. Until this week, the president and his campaign team have played things low-key, in an effort, they say, to avoid politicizing the trial – notwithstanding the occasional quip from Mr. Biden. 

On Tuesday, that approach was sidelined as the campaign dispatched actor Robert De Niro, an avid Biden supporter and Trump critic, to speak to reporters outside the Manhattan courthouse. The De Niro appearance gave the Trump campaign an opening to claim the Biden campaign had turned the trial into “a campaign event.” 

Some experts worry about the politicization of the judicial system – and what may lie ahead after Mr. Trump’s conviction.

“It opens a Pandora’s box for prosecutors to bring political cases,” says Gregory Germain, a law professor at Syracuse University. “I think Republican jurisdictions will respond accordingly and indict Biden,” Professor Germain says. “It’s not a good development to see our legal system politicized in this way.”

In the just-concluded trial, Mr. Trump was found guilty of falsifying business records with intent to commit or conceal another crime, in connection with a cover-up of hush money payments to a porn actor before the 2016 election. The actor, Stormy Daniels, says she had a sexual encounter with Mr. Trump in 2006, which he denies. 

In determining the “other crime,” the judge gave the jury three choices: tax fraud, violation of federal election law, and violation of New York election law. The jurors did not need to agree on which other crime they believed Mr. Trump intended to commit.

The salacious details of the case, as portrayed in testimony from Ms. Daniels, added to the feeling of spectacle around the trial – and led Trump defenders to suggest the prosecutor was trying to damage Mr. Trump politically, especially with women voters. Ms. Daniels’ testimony was not essential to prosecuting the case, legal analysts note. 

The prime witness for the prosecution was former Trump fixer Michael Cohen, who set up the hush payments. Mr. Cohen came to the proceedings with damaged credibility, having served prison time for fraud and perjury, and emerged from his testimony battered and with a new nickname, thanks to Mr. Trump’s lead lawyer – the “greatest liar of all time,” or GLOAT. 

The former president faces sentencing by Justice Juan Merchan on July 11, ranging from probation to four years in prison. As a first-time offender, Mr. Trump is expected to receive a sentence that’s on the lighter end of the range. If he is sentenced to probation, he would be required to check in regularly with a probation officer. He could also be granted “conditional discharge,” and avoid regular meetings with a probation officer as long as he avoids more legal trouble. 

Note: This story has been updated.