Election deniers on ballot: What does this mean for democracy?

Mark Finchem, the Republican candidate to become Arizona’s top election official, secretary of state, has said he would not have certified President Joe Biden’s victory there in 2020.

Kristina Karamo, the GOP nominee for Michigan secretary of state, claims that the 2020 vote there was rife with fraud and that former President Donald Trump – not President Biden, who won the state by 154,000 votes – was the true victor of the state’s Electoral College votes.

Doug Mastriano, Republican gubernatorial candidate in Pennsylvania, is a state lawmaker who introduced a resolution following the 2020 vote claiming that the election was “irredeemably corrupted” and the state legislature should appoint new delegates to the Electoral College. If he wins the governorship this November, Mr. Mastriano would have the power to appoint Pennsylvania’s next secretary of state.

Across America, Republicans who question the legitimacy of the last presidential election are on the ballot for the 2022 midterms. At least 195 GOP Senate, House, governor, attorney general, or secretary of state nominees have echoed Mr. Trump’s false charge that the presidential election was stolen, data media site FiveThirtyEight estimated this week. 

Yet multiple reviews in state after state have shown the election to be fair and the results accurate. Multiple officials of both parties, including Mr. Trump’s former Attorney General William Barr, have said they saw no evidence of widespread fraud.

Whether election deniers in key positions could have flipped 2020 for Mr. Trump is an open question. The U.S. electoral system is decentralized and complex. Nor is every candidate who criticizes the last presidential vote embracing disinformation or false claims. For many, it may be a way of expressing anger at the 2020 outcome or continued support for Mr. Trump.

But Mr. Trump – who seems almost certain to run again – continues to push his false claims of widespread fraud at rallies and on his Truth Social media site. If in 2024 the election is razor-close, and a battleground state election official who echoes these claims refuses to certify a result or appoint Electoral College electors, trust in the election system, even in democracy itself, could be gravely damaged.

“Just think about the implications of simply ignoring the results of an election,” says Kenneth Mayer, a professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin, Madison.

“This is going to remain a force”

In many ways Republican candidates who question the legitimacy of the 2020 election are simply mirroring what their voters believe. In poll after poll, about 70% of Republican voters say they do not think Mr. Biden legitimately won election to the presidency, according to the fact-checking site PolitiFact.

That does not mean a vast majority of the GOP accepts all the misinformation about 2020 that Mr. Trump continues to espouse. It’s possible some of this grassroots denialism represents disaffected voters expressing anger at the system, says Richard Pildes, a professor of constitutional law at New York University.

But expressing mistrust in the Biden-Trump contest’s result – despite more than 60 court decisions, official statements, and reports indicating it was conducted fairly – has become a foundational belief in particular for Republican primary voters, who are often the most motivated party faction. The result has been victories for candidates who embrace Mr. Trump’s “Stop the Steal” ethos in some key battleground states. 

“I do expect that particularly in close elections, this is going to remain a force,” says Professor Pildes.

President Biden, in a speech billed as a defense of democracy last week, spoke for many Democrats and some Republicans when he criticized what he termed “MAGA Republicans” for not recognizing the will of the people and refusing to accept the results of free elections.

“They’re working right now as I speak in state after state to give power to decide elections in America to partisans and cronies, empowering election deniers to undermine democracy itself,” the president said.

GOP candidates who say they doubt the 2020 outcome were not happy with his words.

“I think he is too divisive calling his doubters horrible names. He should be trying to unite the country,” tweeted Mr. Finchem last week in response to the president’s speech. 

The role of secretary of state

Of 529 Republican nominees for top offices in the upcoming 2022 midterms, 195 have fully denied the results of 2020, according to FiveThirtyEight’s analysis. That means they either directly stated that the vote was stolen or joined in legal action to try to overturn the results.

An additional 61 nominees have raised questions about the presidential election, according to FiveThirtyEight, meaning they have expressed doubts that the vote was conducted fairly without openly questioning whether the election was legitimate.

The majority of these are House candidates, and many are poised to win. In office, they could vote to challenge state results in 2024 when Congress, per the Constitution, meets to certify the election of the president – as 147 did on Jan. 6, 2021.

But it is the prospect of election-denying candidates winning state offices – governor, attorney general, and secretary of state – that worries some experts the most. Of those, secretary of state may be the most vulnerable to electoral mischief. They are the top election officials in many states, setting rules and regulations, approving voting procedures, overseeing worker training, and certifying results.

“There’s a lot of room for them to put their thumb on the scale,” says Professor Mayer.

Secretaries of state could change how people vote in many states, pushing to eliminate or curtail drop boxes and the use of voting by mail, or electronic voting machines. They could expand access for partisan election observers, or increase the presence of law enforcement at precincts. They could discourage voting and erode trust in elections by continuing to question the electoral system.

Among the most disruptive things secretaries of state could do is refuse to certify accurate results, or acquiesce in objection to certification from lower-level officials. If such officials in just three battleground states won’t certify their results or appoint electors, the nation could face a constitutional crisis.

“One of the things that 2020 has driven home is the magnitude of insider threats to election integrity,” says Philip Stark, professor at the University of California, Berkeley and an election integrity expert.

“We have to play their game better”

There are nine Republican secretary of state nominees who fully or partially embrace false assertions about the prevalence of fraud in 2020 elections, according to a race-by-race analysis of American election candidates by Bloomberg News. 

One is already guaranteed election this fall. In Wyoming, GOP candidate Chuck Gray is running unopposed in November’s general election. Mr. Gray has called the 2020 election “clearly rigged,” and has asserted that the “woke, big tech left” steals elections.

Four of them represent crucial battleground states and have joined together in an America First Secretary of State Coalition: Mr. Finchem in Arizona, Ms. Karamo in Michigan, Jim Marchant in Nevada, and Mr. Mastriano in Pennsylvania. The last, while a gubernatorial candidate, says he has already selected a suitable person for secretary of state. 

Their website states that their goals are to achieve “voter integrity” and “counter and reverse electoral fraud.” While instances of fraud can be found, many experts say it is rare in America and limited to isolated incidents that would not affect an election’s outcome.

Their agenda includes eliminating mail-in ballots while keeping traditional absentee ballots – presumably for voters with an excuse as to why they cannot vote in person. They also favor single-day voting, poll-watcher reforms, aggressive “cleanup” of voter rolls, paper ballots, and a voter identification requirement. 

“In order to win, we have to play their game better. If we want fair and honest federal elections, we must start with electing the right people at the State level,” says the America First Secretary of State Coalition website.

Different forms, but all “destabilizing”

There are many different forms of election denialism, says NYU’s Professor Pildes.

Some people say they wouldn’t have certified the 2020 election, he says. Some would say that Mr. Biden is president, but without saying he won. Some say there was fraud and the election will never be certain for that reason.

But “I’m not sure how much difference it makes to distinguish between these different versions because they’re all incredibly destabilizing,” he says.

The U.S. election system is very decentralized, even for national elections. Many different levels of government have a hand in administering the vote. Key officials who oversee elections are themselves elected, meaning they can become partisan actors.

And we’re in a period where many people on both sides believe our elections are existential matters, and that if the other side wins, the country will never be the same, says Professor Pildes.

“When people come to believe that, their willingness to take measures that they might not take under normal circumstances becomes heightened,” he says.