After midterms, will GOP seek to move on from Trump?

Is the GOP still the party of Donald Trump?

In the wake of their disappointing midterm results – and as the former president prepares for a “big” announcement, with expectations that he will make his 2024 bid official tonight – Republicans are once again wrestling with the same existential question that has consumed the party off and on for the past six years.

Right now, Mr. Trump’s grip on his party appears as tenuous as it’s ever been. Most of his marquee candidates in battleground states lost last week, and those who won often lagged mainstream Republicans on the ticket. Across the political spectrum, commentators have interpreted the election as a sharp rebuke to the MAGA brand, calling the former president a drag on the GOP ticket and a gift to Democratic turnout. 

Mr. Trump also remains under investigation, facing perhaps the greatest legal jeopardy of his career, over everything from the classified documents taken from the White House to his business dealings in New York. And polls suggest many Republican voters may be wearying of him. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, whose resounding reelection victory last week led the conservative, Murdoch-owned New York Post to dub him “DeFuture,” has pulled ahead in several recent surveys ranking potential 2024 contenders.

True to form, the former president has responded to this apparent moment of weakness by going on the offensive. He is calling the Nov. 8 election a “very big victory” for him and his allies, trumpeting the likely GOP takeover of the House, and attributing the failure to capture the Senate to “very obvious CHEATING” (a charge that virtually none of his endorsees have echoed). 

Notably, he has also turned up the heat on potential challengers for the GOP presidential nomination, unloading in particular on Governor DeSantis, whom he has labeled “DeSanctimonius.”

The attacks make clear what awaits anyone who stands in Mr. Trump’s way, highlighting his instinctive ability to isolate and defenestrate detractors while keeping a tight grip on the base.

Previous predictions of Mr. Trump’s political demise have all proved premature. Even many of his critics say it would be unwise to count him out. He has survived scandals, two impeachments, and twice losing the popular vote. Party leaders could easily have turned against him after the Unite the Right rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, or particularly after the deadly riot at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 – but wound up falling into line instead. Indeed, it was Mr. Trump’s Republican critics, such as Reps. Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger, who ultimately paid a political price.

“After Jan. 6, Republicans could have taken this man down – and they didn’t,” says GOP strategist Scott Jennings, a former adviser to President George W. Bush. “If someone is weak, that’s the time to move,” he adds. 

The post-election math

One factor that could make this particular moment of weakness different is that it’s mostly about the math. In politics, power ultimately hinges on winning – and Mr. Trump’s credibility as a winner appears seriously tarnished.

Heading into the midterms, the former president was expected to use the results as a springboard for a presidential run that would clear the field. He even teased an announcement on the eve of Election Day, as predictions of a “red wave” grew. But the poor showing for his candidates in battleground races, from Pennsylvania to New Hampshire to Arizona, ultimately costing Republicans a chance to flip the Senate, tore up that playbook.

In Florida, by contrast, Governor DeSantis cruised to reelection, including in Latino districts around Miami that were previously Democratic strongholds. His success is stoking some Republican dreams of a DeSantis ticket in 2024 that could unite the party – and cast Mr. Trump into the past.

“I think the tables have been turned,” says Jerry Sickels, a Republican strategist in New Hampshire who worked on Mr. Trump’s 2016 campaign.

Indeed, a number of prominent Republicans from battleground states are now saying the quiet part out loud. 

Former House Speaker Paul Ryan told a Wisconsin TV station that Mr. Trump was “a drag on the ticket” and predicted he wouldn’t capture the nomination in 2024. “We want to win the White House and we know with Trump we’re so much more likely to lose,” he said. 

In Pennsylvania, where Trump-backed Dr. Mehmet Oz lost a competitive Senate race to Democrat John Fetterman, retiring Republican Sen. Pat Toomey predicted it was just a matter of time before Mr. Trump steps aside. “I think Donald Trump’s influence gradually but steadily declines, and I think it accelerates after the [electoral] debacle that he’s responsible for to some degree,” Senator Toomey told The Philadelphia Inquirer. 

Republicans in Michigan are also blaming Mr. Trump for a Democratic sweep of statewide offices and the state Legislature. In a memo, GOP officials complained that party donors balked at funding far-right Trump allies, including gubernatorial candidate Tudor Dixon, who lost by double digits to Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. 

Yet the vast majority of Republican lawmakers have been holding fire. Those with presidential ambitions, or even an upcoming reelection race, seem wary of angering Mr. Trump and his many adoring fans, who can swing a primary. This is a familiar pattern, one that Mr. Trump knows how to exploit, says David Drucker, author of “Trump’s Shadow: The Battle for 2024 and the Future of the GOP.”

“You need to take the fight to him,” he says. “Just waiting for him to go away will never work.” 

This same goes for the former president’s supporters who prize his pugnacious style, says Mr. Drucker, a reporter at the Washington Examiner. “The only thing that will show Republican voters that you’re a fighter and leader is to take on Trump as he takes on everyone else,” he says. 

Several GOP contenders have been seeding the ground for 2024 by visiting early primary states and endorsing and raising money for candidates. Among them are former Trump administration officials like Nikki Haley; Mike Pompeo; and Mike Pence, Mr. Trump’s former vice president, who has a new book out. All have been treading carefully when it comes to the former president.

So far, the biggest buzz among GOP donors and activists surrounds Governor DeSantis, whose culture-war exploits have become a fixture on Fox News. On Tuesday, the Florida governor responded to Mr. Trump’s attacks with a not-so-subtle jab, telling reporters to “check out the scoreboard.” 

The fact that a credible replacement is waiting in the wings could also make this moment different from all of Mr. Trump’s previous stumbles, says Mr. Jennings. “Republicans can see the next lily pad,” he says.   

“There’s enough blame to go around”

By announcing his run so early, Mr. Trump appears to be looking to head off his likely competitors, pressuring GOP officials and donors to fall into line. His timing also may be geared to the legal peril he faces on several fronts, since many experts believe it becomes more politically treacherous to indict him once he’s a presidential candidate-in-waiting.

Already, the former president is attracting public statements of support: Rep. Elise Stefanik, a Republican in House leadership, has endorsed him as presidential candidate even before he declares. 

One frustration for Republicans was not just that Trump-endorsed candidates flopped last Tuesday, but that Mr. Trump actively dissuaded better politicians from running, says Robert Blizzard, a GOP pollster. Popular Republican governors in New Hampshire and Arizona opted not to run for the Senate, and that hurt the party, he says. “Voters are rewarding serious, experienced people,” he says. 

Mr. Blizzard notes that Electoral College victory in 2024 will hinge on the same battleground states that were in the midterm spotlight. “A Republican path to the White House in 2024 goes through Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada,” he says. “If we don’t win those states, we’re going to be shut out.” 

Still, Mr. Trump’s defenders argue that what the midterms really demonstrated was that Republicans need him on the ballot, with his unique ability to turn out disaffected voters. They also blame GOP leaders in Congress for failing to prioritize the right seats and note that moderate GOP candidates also lost toss-up midterm races.

Fran Wendelboe, a Republican former state legislator in New Hampshire, believes her party has been too quick to blame Mr. Trump for its midterm defeats. “There’s enough blame to go around for everyone,” she says.

But Ms. Wendelboe is concerned about Mr. Trump’s electability in 2024. She says she’s ready to move on from the man she calls “a great president” and who she believes was unfairly persecuted in office.

Mr. Trump needs to “think not so much about what’s best for Donald Trump but what’s best for the country,” she says.