In tight Senate race, Georgia may hinge on new voters

Neither Timothy Daniels nor Latoya McGee voted in last month’s midterms. But both were motivated to turn out last week to cast early ballots for Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock in Georgia’s Senate runoff.

For Mr. Daniels, it came down to character. “I look at a person’s morals and values when I go to vote,” he says, as he emerges from the downtown Convention Center in Savannah.

For Ms. McGee, what mattered most was familiarity. “[Senator Warnock] is from our community, so he understands us,” she explains. “That’s important to me.”

Young Black voters like Mr. Daniels and Ms. McGee could prove decisive in Tuesday’s contest between Senator Warnock and Republican candidate and former football star Herschel Walker. The historic race between two Black candidates, a first for the former Confederate state, went to a runoff after neither won a majority in November’s vote. More than 1.8 million Georgians have already cast early ballots – about a quarter less than in last month’s early vote, but at least 76,000 of whom, like Mr. Daniels and Ms. McGee, sat out the November election, according to the data site GeorgiaVotes.com.

Notably, Senator Warnock edged out Mr. Walker last month by almost 40,000 votes despite relatively low Black turnout. The Black share of Georgia’s electorate fell to its lowest levels since 2006, a trend that was seen in other states such as North Carolina and Louisiana. Senator Warnock made up for that drop by winning over more college-educated white voters – a coalition that is swiftly becoming more Democratic nationwide, and has helped make Georgia politically competitive.

With Mr. Walker’s campaign facing numerous controversies, including allegations of abuse and questions about his qualifications, the November election also saw a resurgence of split-ticket voters. Many who cast ballots for GOP Gov. Brian Kemp declined to back Mr. Walker, who garnered 200,000 fewer votes than the governor. Of course, at least some Kemp-Warnock voters may have been Democrats. But more than 81,000 Georgians also voted for a libertarian Senate candidate who is no longer on the ballot, raising questions about whether they will shift their support to Mr. Walker or simply stay home.  

“You now have about 10% of the electorate that may be persuadable,” says Trey Hood, a political science professor and polling director at the University of Georgia. “When it’s so close, all these things can have an impact. It doesn’t take much movement.”

Still, runoff elections tend to be mostly about base turnout. Senator Warnock will be relying heavily on the Democratic get-out-the-vote operation built by former gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams – who has been credited with helping to turn Georgia purple after her narrow 2018 loss to Governor Kemp, although last month’s rematch between the two was not close. Mr. Walker, for his part, has the support of the governor, who won reelection resoundingly and has a strong political organization that he’s activating on behalf of the former Heisman Trophy winner.

“At this point, I think people have absorbed about all they’re going to absorb” about the issues or the candidates, says Professor Hood. “It’s a turnout battle, not a persuasion battle.”

Control of the U.S. Senate is no longer on the line. Democrats have clinched 50 seats already, with Vice President Kamala Harris’ tie-breaking vote giving them the majority, and the ability to confirm President Joe Biden’s judicial picks, among other things. But an extra seat would still be significant since it would give Democrats a majority on committees as opposed to sharing power with Republicans.

It also would prevent the party’s agenda from being derailed by a single senator – which some analysts see as a significant motivating factor for base voters.

“Voters in Georgia who are liberal and liberal-leaning recognize the need to have one more vote in the Senate” to help minimize the impact of a single senator who may not represent as diverse constituents, says Pearl Dowe, a political scientist at Emory University in Atlanta.

However, given that the GOP has retaken the House and is unlikely to sign on to much, if any, of the Biden legislative agenda, that's going to be less of a factor over the next two years.

Also potentially driving turnout might be the sheer closeness of November’s vote, which seemed to surprise some voters – making it clear how much every vote counts.

“Turnout is not just on the issues, but also about how people personally feel their presence is part of the system,” says Professor Dowe.

That’s the case for Ben, a Savannah voter who declines to give his last name for privacy reasons. “I’m voting because my vote means something here in Georgia,” he says.

Polling has shown Senator Warnock with a slim lead. The Democrat, who is also the senior pastor at Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, where Martin Luther King Jr. once preached, has been a constant presence on the campaign trail of late. Rallying voters at churches and college campuses, and appearing last week with former President Barack Obama, he urged voters to finally elect him to a full six-year term.

“This is the fifth time my name has been on the ballot in less than two years, for the same doggone job,” Senator Warnock quipped.

The Georgia Senate race has been the most expensive of the entire 2022 cycle, with Senator Warnock raising more money than any other federal candidate.

Mr. Walker, for his part, has been winding through rural parts of the state on an “Evict Warnock” bus tour. With analysts predicting the early vote is likely to favor Senator Warnock, the Republican is pushing for a big Election Day turnout, emphasizing his nostalgic appeal in a football-crazed state and his everyman persona.

“Herschel Walker, for all his warts, is a fresh candidate and a fresh face,” says Jon Taylor, a political scientist at the University of Texas at San Antonio. “He’s formidable because he is relatable.”

Some in his own party are concerned about Mr. Walker’s electability, given allegations about abortions that have dogged his campaign. Over the weekend, the state’s outgoing GOP lieutenant governor called him “one of the worst Republican candidates in our party’s history.”

In the closing days, Mr. Walker has campaigned with supporters such as South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham and Governor Kemp. Former President Donald Trump, whose endorsement helped Mr. Walker secure the GOP nomination, did not come to the state to campaign but was reportedly scheduled to hold a “tele-rally” for Mr. Walker Monday night. The former president was blamed by some members of his party for a disappointing performance in last month’s midterms.   

“We’re in a serious fight,” Mr. Walker said at a rally on Friday. “This is not just a political battle, this is a spiritual battle.”

A Walker win on Tuesday would put a clear halt to Democrats’ momentum in the state in recent cycles, making those gains seem more of a Trump-fueled anomaly. Indeed, Republicans won every statewide office in Georgia last month, with the exception of the Senate seat.

Waiting in an hourlong early voting line in downtown Savannah on Thursday, independent voter Jeff Fortson said he was casting his ballot for Mr. Walker. A high school Spanish teacher in a knit Braves cap who describes his policy leanings as libertarian, he sees Mr. Walker as less of a partisan figure and more pragmatic.

“It feels like the great American middle is on the comeback trail,” says Mr. Fortson.