Is Donald Trump finished? Many – but not all – Republicans hope so.

In the end, Monday’s final hearing of the House Jan. 6 committee landed as expected: with criminal referrals of former President Donald Trump to the Justice Department over his actions around the 2021 siege of the U.S. Capitol.

The unprecedented move against an ex-president was historic. The committee of Democrats and anti-Trump Republicans accused him of inciting an insurrection, among other charges. But the referrals are merely advisory, and thus symbolic. The Justice Department, now with a special counsel in place, has already been investigating the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol by Trump supporters who believed his claim that the 2020 election was stolen from him.

Today, the Democrat-run House Ways and Means Committee voted to release Mr. Trump’s tax returns from the years 2015 to 2020, with an eye toward shedding light on both his personal finances and business dealings.

Where do the latest developments leave Mr. Trump politically? In all likelihood, right where he was before Monday’s criminal referrals. His “MAGA” base – followers of his Make America Great Again ethos – still loves him, while mainstream Republicans see him as a millstone, holding the party back.

“There’s not an easy solution to this, short of Trump being indicted and convicted,” says Doug Heye, former spokesperson for the Republican National Committee. 

Trump defenders counter that he has a unique ability to thrive amid adversity, and buck conventional wisdom. Both the Jan. 6 referrals and tax return situation spark cries of “political witch hunt” from supporters. And certainly, the nine-lives quality to his first presidential run showed that he could recover from seemingly disastrous developments – such as the release of damaging audio – and still win. 

Trump’s appeal wearing thin?

Today, Mr. Trump is testing that thesis like never before. He announced his 2024 presidential bid extraordinarily early, and unlike his first campaign, he has a record to run on. By many metrics, his comeback effort has landed with a thud. 

To wit: The ex-president’s Nov. 15 announcement speech was widely panned as “low energy.” The week before, he likely cost Republicans the Senate majority by promoting flawed candidates in key midterm election races. And a recent dinner at his Florida estate with two prominent people who have espoused virulently antisemitic views sparked public outrage – and criticism from allies, including former top economic adviser Larry Kudlow – with no Trump apology. 

Also highly damaging was the former president’s call for “termination” of the U.S. Constitution to address the 2020 election dispute, a statement that outraged many mainstream Republicans. And the recent guilty verdict in New York against the Trump Organization on charges of tax fraud, while not against Mr. Trump himself, serves as a reminder of the former president’s many legal woes – including the case involving classified documents that he kept at Mar-a-Lago after leaving office.

The fact that his daughter Ivanka Trump and son-in-law Jared Kushner – both key advisers in Mr. Trump’s term as president – have announced that they will not participate in a second Trump administration also suggests that this time is different. 

Many rank-and-file Republicans, too, have seen enough, including members of Congress and other elected officials, even if they’re not willing to say so publicly. This emerging consensus leaves party leaders with a profound dilemma: how to steer Mr. Trump into an emeritus role, simultaneously keeping his core base inside the GOP tent while also giving way to a new Republican standard-bearer – say, Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida. 

“Given Trump’s political failures and legal issues, I think he’s in deep trouble,” says Joe DiSarro, a retired political science professor at Washington & Jefferson College in Pennsylvania and former member of the state Republican committee. 

Professor DiSarro blames Mr. Trump for hand-picking Dr. Mehmet Oz, a TV celebrity with no prior political experience, for the Republican nomination to Pennsylvania’s open GOP-held Senate seat. Dr. Oz, who lost to Democrat John Fetterman, ran a “terrible campaign,” he says.

Still, Professor DiSarro adds, Mr. Trump’s legacy will live on. “Trumpism or populism will continue to be a significant force in American politics,” he says, noting middle-class struggles, high inflation, and looming recession. This mode of thought – “Trumpism without Trump” – is evident in the latest polls, which show Republican voters increasingly opposed to another Trump presidential run but supporting many of his policies.  

An avid base of supporters

To be sure, Mr. Trump still has his champions within the party. One former senior Trump administration official, who asked that his name be withheld so he could speak freely, acknowledges that Mr. Trump’s effort at a comeback is an unusual enterprise, beginning with its unprecedentedly early start, small leadership team, and lack of campaign events so far. But he calls this “classic Trump.” 

“If you say to Trump, ‘Here’s how it’s done,’ his answer is invariably, ‘I’m not going to do it that way,’” the former official says.

At the grassroots level, die-hard Trump supporters are as avid as ever.

“The ‘Criminal Referrals’ from the January 6th Committee have no evidentiary basis and are just a blatant political attack,” says Tom Zawistowski, president of the We the People Convention in Akron, Ohio, in an email.  “Even if the DOJ is corrupt enough to take the case to court in the totally biased DC Courts and convict Trump, we will consider it totally illegitimate.”

Mr. Trump is reportedly set to unveil his campaign website this week and embark on a series of small policy events, rather than his signature larger rallies, which will come later. 

Of course, Mr. Trump’s post-announcement activities could all be a pose, some Republican observers suggest. Maybe he isn’t even really running, they say, noting that by declaring his candidacy early it might help him fend off criminal investigations by making legal moves against him look political – and could give other potential Republican presidential challengers pause about jumping in.

Indeed, no other major Republicans have announced yet for president, but that’s likely because it’s early, not because they’re afraid to challenge Mr. Trump. 

Polls show Republicans are increasingly ready for a fresh face to lead the party: Only 31% of GOP and GOP-leaning voters want Mr. Trump to run again, according to the latest USA Today/Suffolk University survey.

Little precedent for losing and then running again

But despite all of Mr. Trump’s challenges, when it comes to the 2024 presidential race, nobody is counting him out. 

“There’s no road map for this,” says Mr. Heye, including the fact that Mr. Trump is the first president in the modern era to lose reelection, then run again to regain the office. 

The only American to win nonconsecutive terms as president was Grover Cleveland, in the late 1800s. 

In the early 1900s, President Theodore Roosevelt tried and failed to stage a comeback after leaving office, running as a third-party candidate. The possibility that Mr. Trump might run as an independent if he loses the GOP nomination scares Republicans, who fear he could split the GOP vote and elect the Democrat.

But, political analysts say, Mr. Trump’s chances as a Republican cannot be ruled out, given his pull with a significant portion of the GOP electorate. His recent sale of digital trading cards of himself dressed in various guises – as a superhero, astronaut, and NASCAR driver – sold out quickly at $99 apiece, earning himself (not his campaign) $4.5 million. 

“Trump starts off with a huge advantage in terms of name recognition and money in the bank – not his own money, but money from 2020 and money that he’s raising now,” says Shana Kushner Gadarian, a political scientist at Syracuse University. “So there is absolutely the case that he could be the nominee.”

The view from Iowa and New Hampshire

Party activists in the states that will launch the 2024 Republican nominating process speak carefully when it comes to Mr. Trump. 

“We’re going to treat all the candidates equally and fairly,” says Chris Ager, a Republican National Committee member from New Hampshire, which will hold the first GOP primary. “At this point, President Trump will be a candidate just like other prospective candidates. No presumption of front-runner status or preferential treatment. It’s a meritocracy.”

In Iowa, where Republicans still plan to hold nominating caucuses early in 2024, unlike the Democrats, voters are still waiting to see who’s running, says Connie Schmett, a GOP precinct chair in suburban Des Moines. 

“People liked [Mr. Trump’s] policies, but they’re a little bit hesitant on his outspoken vocabulary,” Ms. Schmett says. And, she adds, “there are individuals who say he’d be more respected if he helped other candidates,” and didn’t run himself. 

The idea of Mr. Trump playing a supporting role in 2024, rather than trying to regain the presidency, appeals to many Republicans, given his high negatives. But for now, Mr. Trump is on the ballot.

Editor's note: A sentence in this article was updated to reflect that the expected vote by the House Ways and Means Committee occurred, to release Mr. Trump’s tax returns.