Can Joe Biden win back Americans’ confidence?

President Joe Biden’s first two years in office have been a study in contrasts: of highs and lows, triumphs and tragedies, stability and chaos.

The nation has so far avoided a recession, and economic forecasts are looking rosier, with unemployment at historic lows. But inflation, while declining, remains high – and many Americans are still hurting. A stunning 41% say they’re worse off today than they were two years ago.

President Biden restored the United States’ image as a strong global leader in supporting Ukraine against Russia, following a disastrous pullout from Afghanistan in 2021. But the latest clash of superpowers – in which a suspected Chinese spy balloon traversed the entire U.S. before being shot down – underscores an increasingly adversarial relationship with China that could deteriorate quickly. 

In contrast with the tumultuous White House of former President Donald Trump – already an announced candidate for 2024 – Mr. Biden has surrounded himself with loyal advisers who rarely leak to the press, creating a sense of stability in uncertain times.

And in perhaps his biggest political triumph, beyond beating Mr. Trump in 2020, Mr. Biden’s Democrats bucked history in November’s midterm elections, adding to their Senate majority and only barely losing control of the House. While the return of divided government foretells legislative gridlock and a slew of investigations, including into Mr. Biden’s son Hunter, the Republican-held House also provides Mr. Biden with a foil. There’s a reason past first-term presidents of both parties have gone on to win reelection after losing ground in the midterms. 

Still, Mr. Biden – by all indications planning to run for reelection – faces a difficult political road ahead. Arguably, his biggest political vulnerability centers on a factor over which he has no control: his age. When the nation’s first octogenarian president delivers his State of the Union address Tuesday night, attention will be trained as much on his demeanor, clarity, and energy as on his words. 

“The big question that looms large over this moment is, is he up to the task of running again?” says David Barker, a professor of government at American University. “He has to continue to project as much vigor and strength and vibrancy as he can, and hopefully not stutter, hopefully not stumble over his words or look in any way inarticulate.”

Biden defenders note that he’s always been gaffe-prone, and has dealt with a stutter since childhood. What’s more, aging is highly individual; plenty of Americans work into their 80s. But running for president – and being president – is another matter, especially with the return of in-person events and constant travel. Even for younger candidates, the pace can be grueling. Presidents running for a second term can campaign by governing, but just being president visibly ages the best of them. 

At last week’s gathering in Philadelphia of the Democratic National Committee, Mr. Biden’s age was a topic of conversation. Even some of these loyal party members expressed concerns, but on balance most came down on the side of favoring a reelection bid. Chants of “four more years” rang out.

The Democratic electorate seems much more skeptical. Only 37% of the party’s voters currently want Mr. Biden to run again, down from 52% right before the midterms, according to a new Associated Press-NORC poll.

When confronted with concerns about his age, Mr. Biden typically offers a defiant comeback: “Watch me.” But on Tuesday night, speaking during prime time before a joint session of Congress in what’s widely seen as a soft launch of his 2024 campaign, the president also wants Americans to listen. 

Touting his accomplishments

Mr. Biden will have plenty to tout from the past year, beyond a strong labor market: progress in combating COVID-19; infrastructure projects around the country funded by the bipartisan, $1.2 trillion bill that passed in 2021; and the Inflation Reduction Act, which addresses climate change and prescription drug costs, among other provisions.

The president is also sure to celebrate bipartisan passage of measures on marriage rights for LGBTQ and interracial couples; gun safety; semiconductor manufacturing; and benefits for veterans exposed to burn pits. And he will decry the overturning of Roe v. Wade last June, which had enshrined a nationwide right to abortion for nearly 50 years. Divided government makes federal legislation impossible; action on reproductive rights is now firmly state by state. 

U.S. support for Ukraine will feature prominently, as it did in Mr. Biden’s first State of the Union speech last March, days after the Russian invasion. U.S. funding has passed with bipartisan support, but as the war drags on with no end in sight, the president may find it a heavier lift to keep the funds and weapons flowing. Numerous polls show declining public support for aid to Ukraine, especially among Republicans.

One issue Mr. Biden is almost sure to avoid Tuesday night is the classified documents found in his home in Wilmington, Delaware, and his former office in Washington, spurring the appointment of a special counsel. The discovery has effectively deprived Mr. Biden of a talking point against Mr. Trump – also found to have classified documents in his home and also under investigation by a special counsel – should they face each other in 2024. 

Far more politically consequential are the issues that affect daily life. And strengthening the economy is by far Americans’ No. 1 policy priority, as seen in the latest Pew poll, with 75% of Americans citing it. Three years since the start of the pandemic, COVID-19 is now a priority for only 26%. 

Still, Mr. Biden will have to walk a fine line between crowing about successes and being mindful of those who are struggling, be it people who have to work three jobs to make ends meet or those who have lost family to COVID-19. That’s where the president’s skill at showing empathy will surely come in. 

Mr. Biden’s public approval ratings have been well below 50% since the summer of 2021, a source of frustration for the president’s allies. 

“He’s still so underestimated in terms of what he’s gotten accomplished,” says Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster on Mr. Biden’s 2020 campaign. 

Ms. Lake cites infrastructure investments as popular with voters and applauds the president’s recent trips around the country highlighting bridges, tunnels, and other projects.

“Democrats give him credit, but swing voters are still not paying that much attention to what he’s gotten done,” Ms. Lake says. “They’re very focused on, ‘What are you doing for me next?’ They’re very unhappy with things, and so therefore don’t tend to process the accomplishments much.” 

Confrontation vs. conciliation

The optics of this year’s State of the Union will be different in a key way: Sitting behind the president will be the new Republican speaker of the House, Rep. Kevin McCarthy of California. The two met last week, the start of a monthslong debate over Congress’ need to raise the government borrowing limit – the debt ceiling – to avoid a catastrophic default. Republicans are demanding spending cuts in return. 

The debt ceiling negotiations are one of many areas where Americans say they want the two parties to work together for the common good. Ditto with the porous southern U.S. border. But it’s not so simple. Voters also want their leaders to be “fighters” – to stand up for their beliefs.

Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the conservative Ethics and Public Policy Center in Washington, says he’ll be watching Tuesday to see how the president strikes a balance between confrontation and conciliation. 

“Biden, I think, needs to show both,” Mr. Olsen says. “He needs to show confrontation to draw the general-election contrast and to make the progressive left satisfied with him. He needs to show conciliation for the general election as well.”

The only question, he adds, is “What’s the balance?” If it’s 80% confrontation and 20% conciliation, that lowers the chance of getting things done. “If it’s 60-40 in favor of conciliation, that raises the discord on the left.” 

Mr. Biden will rely on his decades of Washington experience as he tries to thread that needle. He’ll also rely on his inner circle of longtime advisers – now minus his longtime chief of staff, Ron Klain, who stepped down last week in a tearful goodbye ceremony. The president’s new chief of staff, Jeff Zients, is hailed for his executive ability – most recently, as COVID-19 response coordinator – but isn’t seen as having the political savvy of Mr. Klain.

The chief of staff transition might seem like so much “inside the Beltway” minutiae, but it matters, says Chris Whipple, who interviewed many key players, including the president himself, for his new book, “The Fight of His Life: Inside Joe Biden’s White House.” 

“This is a really battened down, disciplined, leakproof, on-script White House most of the time,” he says, and as Team Biden gears up for the reelection campaign, having an effective chief of staff “makes all the difference.” 

Even after “all the stuff they’ve dealt with,” Mr. Whipple says, “now comes the hard part.”