Why some MAGA voters won’t protest for Trump

Most Democrats and some Republicans see the Jan. 6, 2021, Capitol riot as a singularly disqualifying event for Donald Trump’s third candidacy for the White House. In response, Mr. Trump seems to be deliberately leaning into one of the most infamous days in American history, following his playbook of turning a weakness into a strength by accusing the government and the media of unfairly persecuting him and his followers. 

At his first 2024 campaign rally, in Waco, Texas, on Saturday, a jumbo screen featured video footage of that day. Mr. Trump held his hand on his heart as speakers played “Justice for All,” a chart-topping remix of the national anthem that was recorded by supporters currently imprisoned for their role in the insurrection. 

But as the 2024 presidential campaign gets underway, it’s clear that the legacy of that day hangs over the Republican primary in complicated – and not always positive – ways. Even among some of Mr. Trump’s biggest fans. 

As prosecutors continue to convict those who participated in the Capitol riot, with more arrests anticipated, many Trump supporters say they’re reluctant to protest in person now – as evidenced by how few, so far, have responded to his recent call to turn out in opposition to an anticipated indictment in New York. 

And while many on the right express frustration with the Department of Justice, Democrats, and the media, there’s also a discernible vein of resentment directed at Mr. Trump himself.

Some former and even current Trump supporters note that the former president didn’t do much to help those arrested or convicted of crimes following the riot. While many say they will probably still vote for Mr. Trump in 2024, it’s clear the aftermath of Jan. 6 has left a bitter taste – and soured at least some of them on the man himself.

“Trump asked people to protest after the 2020 election, then abandoned them. ... Trump abandoned some of his most faithful followers,” says Rick McCargar, a Trump voter from Portsmouth, Virginia, who went to Washington to protest Mr. Trump’s loss after the 2020 election, but before Jan. 6. “I look at this [pending indictment] and say, ‘He didn’t do anything to help those people.’ So would I stand out in the rain, sleet, or snow for him now? No.”

Independent analysts confirm that this could be a challenge for Mr. Trump.

“The last time Donald Trump called supporters to protest his election loss on Jan. 6, more than 1,000 people faced criminal charges,” says GOP pollster Whit Ayres. “That might give some people pause before they answer Trump’s call to protest this time. You could end up losing your job, your freedom, your family.”

A sense of abandonment

In his speech Saturday, Mr. Trump also focused on a more immediate legal threat that has consumed him and his team over the past few weeks. Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg has convened a grand jury to consider an indictment for hush money payments to porn actress Stormy Daniels that were paid ahead of the 2016 election allegedly at Mr. Trump’s behest. 

And the looming indictment has seemingly given Mr. Trump a bump in the polls: A recent Monmouth poll shows the former president expanding his lead over presumed opponent Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. 

“Our opponents have done everything they can to crush our spirit and break our will,” Mr. Trump said to a crowd holding campaign-issued “Witch Hunt” signs. “But they’ve failed. They’ve only made us stronger.”

Mr. Trump took to social media last week to call for protests. New York police erected steel barricades around a Manhattan courthouse. Reporters set up cameras. Republican lawmakers such as House Speaker Kevin McCarthy spoke out, discouraging protests and urging “calmness.”

The only New York City protest that materialized last week had more reporters than Trump supporters.  

In the days since, his social media posts have escalated. He re-posted a photo of himself holding a baseball bat next to an image of Mr. Bragg, and overnight Thursday he questioned how Mr. Bragg could bring a case against him when it is “known that potential death & destruction in such a false charge could be catastrophic for our Country.” It continued over the weekend: “We must stop them cold!” he wrote.

Yet so far, even some of Mr. Trump’s most adamant supporters have declined to organize. Ali Alexander, one of the “Stop the Steal” rally organizers, tweeted that while protests must “remain part of the human tradition forever,” Trump supporters should not protest in Manhattan. Conspiracy theorist Alex Jones said he has “an issue” with Mr. Trump’s requests for protests because he is trying to “use” his supporters, who could find themselves in a predicament similar to Jan. 6. Conservative talk radio host Jesse Kelly urged his followers not to protest, because the last time Mr. Trump called on his supporters to do so, “he left them all to rot in jail without so much as a penny from him in legal fees.”

It could be that more pro-Trump demonstrations are coming, and supporters will be out in the streets when – or if – there’s news of an arrest. But it also seems to be the case that Jan. 6 has had a chilling effect on supporters’ willingness to heed Mr. Trump’s calls for physical demonstrations.

“There is a small number of people who want to protest with flag waves, stuff like that,” says Suzzanne Monk, a Trump supporter who was at the Capitol on Jan. 6 but says she never went inside. As chair of the Patriot Action PAC, Ms. Monk has been active in protesting the conditions of the Washington jail where Jan. 6 defendants have been held. 

“Most of us, the large majority of Trump supporters, have a concern about being at a physical protest after the Jan. 6 situation,” says Ms. Monk. “Things can be volatile.” 

Indeed, the repercussions from Jan. 6, which continue, have in many cases been severe.

According to a database maintained by NPR, more than 1,000 people have been charged by the federal government or the District of Columbia, and 58% of those sentenced thus far have received prison time. Earlier this month, four defendants who marched with the far-right group the Oath Keepers were convicted of conspiring to obstruct an official proceeding. Last week, one woman was sentenced to three years in prison after storming the Capitol and leading rioters to the office of then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi. 

Mr. Trump has promised “full pardons with an apology” to many of the Jan. 6 defendants if elected. Still, some Trump supporters say they resent that the former president hasn’t done more to help those arrested or convicted of crimes. Loyalty, they say, goes both ways. 

Could an indictment help Trump?

Mike Bordes, a Republican state representative from Laconia, New Hampshire, says he disagrees with the media’s labeling of Jan. 6 as an “insurrection.” Still, the events of that day definitely “went too far,” he says, and it played a small role – among other things – in Mr. Bordes’ decision not to vote for Mr. Trump again in 2024.

“He left them out to dry,” says Mr. Bordes of the Jan. 6 defendants. “We need law and order in this country, and Jan. 6 was bad decisions all around. ... We got mad when Black Lives Matter burned down buildings, so why is it OK for Republicans to do the same? It’s hypocrisy.” 

In many far-right social media channels, recurring memes and complaints echo Mr. Bordes’ observation. One meme especially prevalent on Gab and Truth Social shows a photo of a man in jail in a red "Make America Great Again" hat, as Mr. Trump peers through the bars and says with a smirk, “If you ever get out, be sure to vote for me in 2024. Seeya!” 

Of course, many users reply to Mr. Trump’s posts with messages of support. But some frustration can also be discerned.

“What have you done to help the J6 prisoners?” writes one user named Dottie. “Absolutely nothing.”

It’s difficult to know the true identity of these users – some could be bots or supporters of rival candidates. But the fact that these conversations are happening in these spaces is notable. 

Still, a New York indictment could help Mr. Trump electorally.

“This [case] allows him to be consistent with everything he said from the minute he ran for president: The system is rigged,” says GOP strategist Douglas Heye, adding that the Trump campaign has raised $1.5 million just over the past few days. 

In lieu of physical protests, supporters tell the Monitor they are calling Mr. Bragg’s office to complain about the case. Several “Trump 2024” Facebook groups repeatedly post the phone number of the Manhattan district attorney, with suggested messages for callers. 

And come election season, voters will protest for Mr. Trump “at the ballot box,” says Marie March, a Virginia state delegate who was inspired to run for office after attending Mr. Trump’s Stop the Steal rally in Washington on Jan. 6.

“I’m going to be honest: A lot of people were saying, ‘Well, Trump is just so loud,’ and they were giving him” a hard time, says Ms. March. “Now they are all back on the bandwagon. They are all fired up again.”

Or, says strategist Mr. Heye, in a Republican primary election against other, less legally entangled candidates, an indictment (and Mr. Trump’s response to it) could do the opposite. 

“In the long term, months from now, it’s hard to see how [a New York indictment] can be positive at all. When Ron DeSantis talks about being drama-free, this is what he’s talking about,” says Mr. Heye, speaking of the Florida Republican governor who has all but declared his candidacy for the White House. “This is something that will come up should they be in a debate state together.” 

Mr. McCargar, who protested President Trump’s loss, says the Florida governor is his preferred candidate for this reason, along with others. But if Mr. Trump becomes the Republican nominee for the general election, he adds, he’ll still vote for him.