Risk and recovery: Mississippi tornado signals twin challenges

Late last week, a powerful tornado tore through parts of the rural American South. The EF4 storm system, which spanned some 170 miles, killed an estimated 22 people in Mississippi and Alabama. Local officials across the region reported dozens more injuries in the days after.

The rural Mississippi Delta community of Rolling Fork, a town of less than 2,000 in Sharkey County, suffered the bulk of the damage. Wind speeds soared to 170 miles per hour and the funnel stretched an estimated three-fourths of a mile wide. Touchdown lasted more than an hour. 

Many of the area’s structures were razed in the event, as were parts of Silver City in Issaquena County. State officials say eight counties are still suffering some type of power outage nearly a week after the storm’s initial touchdown. Much of the area remains without power, according to local officials.  

The tornado’s aftermath has prompted an influx of help at a time of need. But experts and officials say the region faces a long road to recovery that will call for both local commitment and outside funding.

What help is flowing in?

At least 2,000 homes were destroyed in the storm, according to the Federal Emergency Management Agency, or FEMA. Shelters across the state have been opened for the unhoused. 

President Joe Biden issued an emergency declaration for Mississippi and the surrounding region on Sunday, and plans to visit the state with First Lady Jill Biden on Friday. The declaration allows for federal funding to go toward recovery efforts in the state’s heavily impacted areas. That includes aid for those who lost housing and require temporary accommodations, home repairs, loans for property losses among the uninsured and other programs, the administration said following the emergency declaration’s announcement.

Gov. Tate Reeves also issued a state of emergency order following last week’s storm. The Republican governor has pledged to rebuild heavily impacted areas in the region, including the state’s agricultural sector. The Mississippi Delta region is home to much of the state’s corn and soybean crops, as well as most of the nation’s farm-raised catfish.

Meanwhile, private citizens and the private and nonprofit sectors are combining forces to deliver aid to residents – from a Walmart truckload of bottled water and food to Salvation Army supply-distribution efforts.

Is climate change boosting tornado risk?

Scientists say they’re still a distance away from understanding potential connections between climate change and extreme weather conditions that produce tornadoes. 

Still, some recent research finds that the regions in which tornadoes are likeliest to occur has begun to shift from the American Plains and into the Mid-South and Gulf Coast regions, like Mississippi and Louisiana, where late last year the community of Arabi experienced a devastating EF3.  

“We're still trying to figure out what's exactly causing this kind of eastward increase in in frequency,” says Victor Gensini, an extreme weather researcher at Northern Illinois University and one of the authors of a Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society study that predicted a more than 6% increase in supercell events (which can spawn tornadoes) under future global warming levels.

If more tornadoes start occurring east of the Mississippi River, that means their threats are increasingly focused on areas with higher rates of population density.

“There’s more targets for these tornadoes to hit,” Dr. Gensini says.

A man, top center, salvages a jacket as he looks over a tornado-damaged home, March 26, 2023, in Rolling Fork, Mississippi. Some climate researchers says tornado risks are rising east of the Mississippi River.

Julio Cortez/AP

Is the Delta region equipped?  

Mississippi is the nation’s poorest state, with about 1 in 5 of its roughly 3-million-person population living below the federal poverty line.

Rolling Fork’s declining population in recent years has also made it even less equipped to bear a natural disaster’s blow. In 2000, the Census noted a population of about 2,500. By 2020, Rolling Fork’s population had fallen to less than 1,900. The exodus was accelerated by a 2019 flood.

One potential concern in the region is that lower-quality homes – especially mobile homes – are especially at risk. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration found that in 2021, roughly 1-in-4 tornado fatalities occurred among those taking shelter in a manufactured home.

Advocates are now encouraging the construction of community weather shelters going forward.

Education will also be advantageous for the region as it aligns with new weather threats.

Modern radar technology allows us to “see storm systems that produce tornadoes coming from a long way out,” Dr. Gensini says. “We need people to pay attention when we sound the alarm.”

What will it take to rebuild, especially in low-income areas?

Long term, the recovery process is only beginning for those living in the region. 

History suggests that, for tornado-torn communities, the rebuilding process often takes years even when outside help is combined with local resolve.

For example, survivors now awaiting home repair funding may be forced to wait up to two years, according to the St. Bernard Project, a disaster relief advocacy group that formed in Hurricane Katrina’s aftermath in southeast Louisiana to help local survivors navigate the recovery process.

FEMA lacks the means to offer full rebuilding funds for uninsured or under-insured residents in disaster zones.

Joplin, Missouri, stands as testament that communities can successfully rebuild. After a devastating 2011 tornado Joplin residents drew plans for a new town, rallied together, and drew on their own resources and nonprofit support. But it took three years and beyond. In Mayfield, Kentucky, more than a year after a destructive tornado, a $52 million relief fund filled by donations hasn’t enabled rapid recovery. Some homes have been rebuilt and others haven’t.

For now, those in Rolling Fork without means for repairs are left to live in damaged homes, with friends, or with family, or risk becoming homeless as they await housing alternatives, like a FEMA trailer, says Reese May, the St. Bernard Project’s chief strategy and innovation officer. Meanwhile, “their home damage worsens, and they rapidly lose home equity.”

“The administration should use technology to make good on its promise to support low-income communities and communities of color,” Mr. May adds. “There isn’t a community that needs it more than Rolling Fork.”