Indictment fuels Trump 2024 campaign – for now

All the familiar trappings were there: The gilded ballroom at Mar-a-Lago. The walk-on music. The coterie, from “My Pillow guy” Mike Lindell to Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene to Donald Trump Jr. 

Former President Donald Trump’s speech at his Florida estate Tuesday night, following that day’s trip to Manhattan for his unprecedented criminal arraignment, was effectively the real launch of his 2024 presidential campaign. 

Unlike his actual hourlong campaign announcement last November – also at Mar-a-Lago – this address lasted just 25 minutes, short by Trump standards. 

Maybe Mr. Trump was trying to demonstrate discipline. After all, he made it through the New York legal proceedings Tuesday in uncharacteristically low-key fashion. Or maybe he was just tired after a long day in which he was formally arrested for 34 felony counts of bookkeeping fraud over hush payments to a porn star, and was instructed by a judge to cool his rhetoric before his next court appearance, scheduled for December. Mr. Trump declared himself “not guilty” of the charges.  

From his supporters’ perspective, the proverbial “witch hunt” has now advanced to a new level. And that’s reflected in the polls. The former president’s support among Republicans had been flagging against his presumed top rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, before news of his pending indictment broke. 

But since March 24, his average support among GOP voters in polls for the 2024 presidential nomination has spiked to 51%, 14 percentage points ahead of Governor DeSantis, who is expected to run but has yet to announce. 

Mr. Trump has also seen a spike in fundraising. Since a Manhattan grand jury voted to indict him last Thursday, his campaign has raised more than $8 million.

Many Republicans are defending Mr. Trump, even some who see him as “unfit for office,” as GOP Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah put it Tuesday. In his statement, Senator Romney said “the New York prosecutor has stretched to reach felony criminal charges in order to fit a political agenda.”

Still, it’s early in the 2024 cycle. The Iowa caucuses – the traditional start of the Republican presidential nomination process – are about 300 days away. And over the long term, Mr. Trump’s legal problems – potentially involving multiple cases – could weigh heavily on his candidacy. 

“I’m not saying he can’t win” the Republican nomination or even another term as president, says a Florida-based Republican strategist, speaking on background to protect his relationships with both the Trump and DeSantis camps. But the indictment “has made it harder.”

In other words, regardless of any short-term bump, being indicted is likely to be a negative. Even in a case that may be questionable. 

There are other signs that Republicans may face challenges ahead. 

The victory of the liberal candidate in Tuesday’s critical election for the Wisconsin Supreme Court is another sign that progressives have mojo. In the Wisconsin race, they showed a motivation to turn out in an electoral battleground state over abortion and voting rights.

The more liberal candidate also won Tuesday’s runoff election for Chicago mayor, in a race between two Democrats. The contest was less of a bellwether than in Wisconsin, but Brandon Johnson’s victory was still a sign that left-leaning voters are highly motivated to turn out. 

On Mr. Trump’s candidacy, political analysts are cautious as they game out scenarios for 2024. The idea that Mr. Trump would be easier to defeat in the general election than, say, Mr. DeSantis, sounds reasonable now. The Florida governor, who just won reelection in a major former battleground state by almost 20 percentage points, is in his mid-40s, and has an attractive young family. And he doesn’t carry the baggage that Mr. Trump does. 

But some Democrats are warning their party to be careful what they wish for. 

Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, who oversaw the indictment of Mr. Trump, isn’t doing this to help the former president win the nomination, says Democratic strategist Karen Finney. 

“I don’t think anyone should think that,” says Ms. Finney, former communications director for the Democratic National Committee. 

She says Democrats can’t assume Mr. Trump is unelectable in a general election, and definitely shouldn’t try, somehow, to help him win the Republican nomination. 

“Frankly, I’m not convinced on any of the Republicans until we see them all on a debate stage,” Ms. Finney says. “That’s where you really learn and see who’s got it.”

President Joe Biden is expected to announce he’s running for a second term, but has reportedly decided to delay his campaign announcement until this summer or even fall to freeze out any potential rivals. So far, only Marianne Williamson, a bestselling author who ran in 2020, has announced a campaign. 

Meanwhile, the Republican nomination race is only getting started. In Florida, the latest survey by Mason-Dixon Polling, released Tuesday, shows Mr. DeSantis ahead of Mr. Trump in that state for the Republican nomination, 44% to 39%. 

Mr. DeSantis is also at a four-year high in job approval – 59% positive versus 39% disapproval – in the Mason-Dixon poll. But Brad Coker, managing director of Mason-Dixon, sees potential challenges ahead for Mr. DeSantis. The Florida legislature has just approved a ban on abortion at six weeks of gestation, far below the current cutoff of 15 weeks. 

Signing the bill could help Mr. DeSantis win the GOP nomination, but put him outside the mainstream of general election voters. 

“That would be a can of worms which, if he wins the nomination, would be a problem in the general election,” Mr. Coker says.