Politics of abortion: Can Republicans avoid going off a cliff?

Nikki Haley moves briskly through her talking points – on the federal budget, education, transgender matters, immigration. 

But at her “Women for Nikki” launch event last week in Des Moines, Iowa, the Republican candidate for president doesn’t voluntarily touch upon what may be the hottest topic in politics today: abortion.

Only when an audience member brings it up does Ms. Haley – former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations and former governor of South Carolina – address the subject. 

“I am strongly pro-life,” she says to applause, noting that her husband is adopted and that she had trouble conceiving both of her children. Still, she’s quick to add, “I don’t judge anyone that’s pro-choice any more than I want them to judge me being pro-life.” 

Ms. Haley then says she doesn’t want “unelected justices deciding something this personal. I want to make sure that it’s decided where the people’s voices are heard.”

Her answer suggests a small-d democratic approach to a deeply divisive topic. But the issue has become exponentially more complicated since last June, when the Supreme Court overturned the nationwide right to abortion. The South Carolinian plans to deliver a major policy speech on abortion next Tuesday. 

Other high-profile Republicans running, or likely to run, for president in 2024 are also treading carefully on the issue – if they mention it at all. Thus far, former President Donald Trump has said nothing about the new law in his home state of Florida banning abortion after six weeks’ gestation, one of the strictest laws in the nation.

And when Ron DeSantis – Florida’s Republican governor and a likely ’24 entrant – appeared last Friday at the Christian conservative Liberty University in Virginia, hours after quietly signing the abortion bill late at night, he didn’t mention the topic. 

Then there’s GOP Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina: On the day he announced an exploratory bid for president last week, he declared himself “100% pro-life,” and then offered an incoherent response that quickly went viral when asked if he’d support a federal abortion ban. 

The awkwardness and hesitancy on display among prominent Republicans when talking about abortion these days reflect a profound challenge facing their party heading into 2024: The overturning of Roe v. Wade caught Republicans flat-footed and set off a political backlash that has energized Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, as seen in votes in Wisconsin, Kansas, and other states since the ruling.

Abortion was one of the top three issues for Democrats heading into the 2022 midterms, according to Pew Research Center. Furthermore, it could hinder the GOP’s ability to retake the presidency, political analysts say.

The price of a legal victory 

In some ways, it’s ironic: By actually achieving a decadeslong goal for its base, the Republican Party may have put itself in a more precarious position politically. With Roe gone, many of its conservative foot soldiers now lack a unifying policy objective on abortion – and any new federal restrictions risk further alienating moderates and independents. 

“The five-to-four majority in Dobbs thought they were doing anti-abortion people a favor,” says David Garrow, a legal historian on reproductive rights, referring to the Supreme Court ruling that overturned Roe. Indeed, the number of legal abortions in the United States declined by 6% in the first months after Dobbs. But in political terms, Mr. Garrow adds, “to some extent, they’ve done the Democratic Party a favor.” 

Even as a talking point, the issue has become a minefield for Republicans. While most GOP politicians still call themselves “pro-life,” many are reluctant to be more specific about what that means, knowing that it could put them out of step with voters.

Major opinion polls have consistently shown that a majority of Americans say abortion should be legal in most cases – currently 93% of abortions occur within the first trimester of pregnancy – and that the decision should be up to the woman and her doctor. 

The issue has been further inflamed by the recent drama over so-called medication abortion, in which a federal judge in Texas ruled early this month that the drug mifepristone was improperly approved by the Food and Drug Administration in 2000. The drug is one of two medications used in nonsurgical abortions, which account for about half of all pregnancy terminations.

On Wednesday, Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito extended until Friday a stay on a lower-court ruling out of Texas blocking the use of mifepristone, allowing the justices more time to consider the case. 

The Texas case has only raised the stakes in the modern-day practice of reproductive health. When Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization was handed down last June, some abortion-rights advocates found solace in the fact that a woman living in a state with strict limits could still acquire medication to end a pregnancy, and therefore would not have to travel to a more permissive state for a surgical abortion. 

Now, supporters of abortion rights say, the medication option also hangs in the balance – even for states where abortion is legal. And the impact of legally limiting or banning mifepristone goes beyond abortion: The drug is also widely used to treat women who are miscarrying, and limits on its use could harm women experiencing the loss of a wanted pregnancy, physicians say. 

A victory for anti-abortion forces in the Supreme Court on mifepristone would likely make the backlash against Republicans over abortion even worse.

Warning signs for Republicans

In navigating the post-Roe political landscape, social-conservative activists know they have a challenge on their hands. 

Since Dobbs, statewide votes in which abortion rights have been at stake have shown that a sleeping giant – college students – can be activated. And the suburbs, once a Republican stronghold in many red and battleground states, edge toward the center. 

Those trends proved critical last August in solid Republican Kansas, where the abortion-rights side won handily in a statewide referendum to amend the state constitution. Earlier this month, in battleground Wisconsin, the liberal candidate in a vote for state Supreme Court justice also won easily, with abortion rights on the line. 

In Michigan, too – another battleground state – a referendum last November to put abortion rights into the state constitution won decisively. By driving turnout, the measure also helped Democrats win the governorship and both legislative houses for the first time since 1984. 

These are just three states, but the results delivered a message to both camps on the politics of abortion. When Roe was still in place, it acted as a limiting force around any proposed restrictions on the procedure. Now, the only limiting force is the voters.

“States now have the freedom, with the Dobbs decision, to implement restrictions that, before then, have just been hypothetical,” says Jennifer Lawless, a political scientist at the University of Virginia.

Ralph Reed, founder and chair of the Faith and Freedom Coalition, acknowledged that his side is “on our back heels” post-Dobbs. Needless to say, he and others don’t see congressional action to restrict abortion happening anytime soon, since the GOP would need a 60-vote veto-proof majority in the Senate. They also would need to do some serious work to bring the country along. 

“We’ll get there eventually, but it’s just going to take a while,” says Mr. Reed.

A middle ground?

The few Republicans in Congress willing to carve out a middle ground on abortion suggest that their efforts are a work in progress. Rep. Nancy Mace of South Carolina has been a lonely voice on the matter, calling herself “pro-life” but also saying that she’d lean toward banning the procedure after “15 to 20 weeks” of gestation.

“With the vast majority of Americans, there’s common ground,” Representative Mace said on Fox News last Sunday. 

South Carolina GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham is also aiming for what he sees as a compromise on abortion, introducing legislation with a 15-week gestational limit, and exceptions for rape, incest, and endangered maternal health. He would also leave in place more restrictive bans approved at the state level. 

But in unveiling his bill just weeks before last November’s midterm elections, when members are especially risk-averse, Senator Graham didn’t win many co-sponsors. The effort is currently on hold. A divided Congress, and close margins of control in each chamber, means any nationwide effort to set abortion policy is most likely a nonstarter. Efforts to “codify Roe” legislatively – led by GOP Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska – have run aground. 

And so for now, both sides of the divide are eager to show their popular strength in Washington and around the country. In January, on the 50th anniversary of Roe – months after its demise – thousands of people gathered on the National Mall for the annual March for Life.

But the energy is clearly more intense on the other side. Supporters of abortion rights have staged numerous demonstrations in the past year, starting when the Dobbs ruling leaked last May. Last Saturday, outside the Supreme Court, some 500 protesters turned out against the federal judge’s ruling on mifepristone. Similar protests played out across the country. 

It’s an issue that speaks to people of all ages and circumstances – people of child-bearing age, older people with memories of life before Roe and who are concerned for their children and grandchildren, women hoping to get pregnant but fearful that limits on medical care could lead to bad outcomes. And not all are Democrats. 

Nicole Altomare, a political independent in her late 30s from Arlington, Virginia, came to the Supreme Court on Saturday because she’s trying to have a family and is worried that doctors might face limits in what they can do to help her – including prescribe mifepristone in the event of a miscarriage. 

“I’m from Indiana originally, and every time I think about going home, I’m like, well, if I were pregnant, I’d have to stay near the Illinois border in case I needed help,” Ms. Altomare says, referring to Illinois’s more permissive health care laws. 

Peggy Donakowski from Sterling, Virginia, who is in her 60s and has an adult daughter, describes herself as a “former Republican” who came out to protest because “every person who shows up makes a difference.” 

Abortion matters, she says, because “everyone should have choice in a full-functioning democracy, including women – especially women, in that we have fought so hard to be where we are. Chipping away at this right is a slippery slope for all of democracy.” 

Trump’s advantage

For the 2024 Republican nomination, former President Trump sits comfortably atop the polls – and ironically, may be the candidate most able to weather the anti-GOP backlash over abortion rights.

“The person who’s done the most without saying it is Donald Trump,” says Republican strategist Doug Heye. 

Mr. Trump nominated three of the Supreme Court justices who voted to overturn Roe, as well as lower court judges who oppose abortion rights, and also campaigned for anti-abortion legislators, senators, and governors who are now shaping statewide legislation.

“On this issue, he doesn’t have to say the word ‘abortion,’” Mr. Heye says. “You can hear him in the debate: ‘Do you like the judges? Next question.’” 

At the same time, because Mr. Trump doesn’t have to reassure his base on the issue, he might actually have more room to appeal to the other side. Indeed, it’s not hard to envision the former Democrat who previously favored abortion rights now advocating for some kind of middle ground. 

Meanwhile, Mr. Trump’s announced and likely primary opponents are struggling to address the abortion issue effectively, as they seek to win over both anti-abortion Evangelical voters and pro-abortion-rights moderates.

It’s a straddle that could undo even the most skilled of GOP presidential candidates not named Trump. 

Some Republicans argue that opposing abortion rights was not the political liability last November that liberals make it out to be. Governor DeSantis won reelection in Florida – until recently a battleground state – by almost 20 percentage points. And GOP Gov. Brian Kemp of Georgia won reelection easily in a presidential battleground state even though he had signed a strict anti-abortion “trigger” law in 2019, in anticipation of Roe’s demise. 

“We know what the winning strategy is – and we know that pro-life candidates have to be clear about their position on protections for the unborn, and contrast that with the extremism of the other side,” says Kelsey Pritchard, director of state public affairs at Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America. “That’s what we saw in the midterms.”

She refers to Mr. DeSantis’ landslide victory in Florida as a prime example.

For President Joe Biden, who is expected to run for a second term, abortion could be the issue that paves the path to reelection, political analysts say. Just as Republicans have for years run for president based on their ability to nominate judges, now it’s an energizing argument for Democrats. 

It’s also perhaps ironic for President Biden, as he is a devoted Catholic and used to identify as “pro-life.” Today, he says he’s personally opposed to abortion but believes women should have the right to make their own choices about their bodies. 

Activists who identify as “pro-life” on policy, like Mr. Reed, say there are plenty of ways like-minded politicians can move the needle on this issue. 

“If we’re going to say, ‘We want to make this choice of ending a life harder,’ we ought to make it easier for [pregnant women] to do the right thing,” Mr. Reed says. He supports “very robust increases in funding for adoption, and prenatal and postnatal care, maybe even government subsidies for the cost of delivery. It could end up being quite expensive, but it would be a very smart thing to do.”

Still, after Dobbs, the abortion debate is all about who can grab the “middle” – and right now, that seems to be Democrats. To be sure, the abortion-rights side has its absolutists – those who want no limits on the procedure at any time. But as with those holding the most conservative views on abortion, there’s not much purchase in public opinion.

“Republicans have pushed so far to the right, and are so far out of sync with public opinion,” says the University of Virginia’s Professor Lawless, “that it’s hard to see how they get back in.”