Politics team wrap-up: Snowy Iowa gears up for caucus night

We’re entering the thick of a momentous election season, with Congress still hard at work on a budget and Donald Trump in court. Here’s the Monitor political team’s look at the key developments from this week.

In American politics, there’s nothing like presidential primary season. Candidates barnstorm diners, kiss babies, grill pork chops. And that’s just Iowa, where the first contests are caucuses – small meetings across the state that get people out of their houses and talking to one another in freezing January. They build community, as I once observed. 

I’ve covered every presidential campaign since 1996, and one thing is certain: You never know what will happen till it happens. See former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum’s surprise victory in the 2012 GOP Iowa caucuses. 

Would you be interested in us keeping you up to date with periodic wrap-ups like this one? This is a trial balloon, but the idea is we would highlight key developments and give you a peek behind the curtain of U.S. politics – both on the campaign trail and back in Washington. (Feedback welcome at editor@csmonitor.com.) – Linda Feldmann, Washington bureau chief

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Notes from the campaign trail

With the Iowa caucuses fast approaching Monday, our newest political reporter couldn’t wait to get on the ground. 

But Sophie Hills got stuck in Chicago, as Iowa battled snow. When she finally lined up to board her plane – along with half a dozen other reporters – she discovered the flight had been way overbooked. Then Sophie heard an attendant tell her colleague at the desk there was room for one more passenger.

That one more was Sophie.

She arrived in Des Moines after midnight, where fellow Monitor reporter Story Hinckley picked her up sporting striped pajamas and a big winter coat. “I was absolutely determined to get to Des Moines,” says Sophie. 

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Monitor politics coverage this week

That last seat on the plane to Des Moines wasn’t for nothing! Here are three stories from Story and Sophie on the ground in Iowa, and one more from South Carolina that has national implications for the 2024 election:

• New energy in Iowa: The “organizational strength” of the campaigns this year is unprecedented – and showing results, says Iowa’s Republican Party chair. When his son asked the crowd at a recent Trump event how many of them would be caucusing for the first time, roughly one-quarter raised their hands, Story reports from Grimes, Iowa. 

• The caucus problem: Caucuses, a longtime tradition in Iowa, emphasize grassroots politicking but also have a well-documented history of delays and inaccuracies. (Just look at the Democratic caucuses in 2020.) That could present a challenge for an already skeptical electorate and a front-runner who said Ted Cruz won in 2016 only because he “stole it,” Story and Sophie report from Des Moines.

• Whose party? The realignment of the GOP since Donald Trump rose to power in 2016 is one of the biggest in American political history, says one GOP strategist. But while the GOP will likely never go back to being the party it once was, it also won’t be the “party of Trump” forever. Every presidential cycle gives parties a chance to redefine themselves, Story reports.

• Warning signs from South Carolina: It’s no exaggeration to say that Black voters put Joe Biden and his running mate, Kamala Harris, in the White House. But although 92% of Black voters supported Mr. Biden in 2020, a recent poll found that that support has dropped to fewer than two-thirds. The big worry for Democrats is they’re not only disenchanted with Mr. Biden but with the party itself, Story reports from Greenville, South Carolina. 

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Other top news this week

• Court skeptical of Trump immunity claim: On Tuesday, Trump lawyers argued that the Constitution gives U.S. chief executives absolute immunity for any offense unless they are first impeached and removed from office over the action. A panel of three federal judges sharply questioned that argument. 

But even if Mr. Trump loses the panel vote, he may have won another battle. Delays could call into question the scheduled start in early March for the federal Jan. 6 case. An appeal to the Supreme Court could cause further delay. A slow pace may be Mr. Trump’s friend. If the case is pushed past the November election, and he triumphs, he could potentially order it dismissed. – Peter Grier

• New showdown looms in Congress: Congress faces a Jan. 19 deadline to prevent a partial government shutdown. Leaders have worked out a deal, but the right-wing Freedom Caucus is pushing back on the level of deficit spending. The dissension echoes the GOP meltdown this fall.

Republicans are ramping up pressure to address the flows of illegal immigration and launched impeachment proceedings against Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas on Tuesday. Some Republicans say that if Democrats don’t agree to shut down the border, the GOP will shut down the government. Aid to U.S. allies Ukraine and Israel could also be held up. We’ll have more next week as the deadline forces tough decisions. – Christa Case Bryant

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Politics podcast

Journalists on the campaign trail are increasingly getting cordoned off behind fences or ropes, as candidates seek to control their message. Former congressional correspondent Gail Russell Chaddock talks with Story about her creative reporting tactics. Listen to this episode of our “Why We Wrote This” podcast.  

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Next week

Linda heads to New Hampshire to cover the final lead-up to the Jan. 23 primary, so stay tuned for news from the Granite State.