Border talks on the rocks? Why Congress hasn’t found a fix.

Former President Donald Trump has long fashioned himself as the ultimate deal-maker. But as his presidential campaign gains momentum, he may be the main force threatening a bipartisan Senate deal on one of his pet issues: border security.

Just two days ago, GOP Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said there was “a unique opportunity” for Republicans to win Democratic concessions on enhanced border security measures in exchange for aid to Ukraine and Israel. Now was the “ideal time,” he said. But yesterday, after Mr. Trump’s 11-point win in the New Hampshire GOP primary made him the overwhelming favorite to secure the 2024 GOP nomination, Mr. McConnell changed his tune.

“We’re in a quandary,” he reportedly told GOP colleagues in a closed-door meeting, explaining that Mr. Trump wants to use the issue to pummel his likely election opponent, President Joe Biden, where he’s weakest. Indeed, according to a Jan. 22 Harvard/Harris poll, voters ranked immigration as the No. 1 issue facing the nation – and Mr. Biden’s handling of it as the most disappointing aspect of his presidency.

Immigration has been a tough nut for Congress to crack over the years, given the complexity of interlinked challenges to be solved and the difficulty of reaching bipartisan agreement on all of them. But this was seen by many as the best shot in more than a decade, with buy-in from Democratic and Republican leadership in the Senate. A number of factors have heightened the sense of urgency of late: the record numbers of illegal crossings and growing concerns on the right about terrorists entering the country; Democratic mayors from Chicago to New York publicly pressuring the Biden administration to take action; and the border talks being linked to aid for Ukraine and Israel, key priorities for Mr. Biden, as well as some Republicans like Mr. McConnell. 

There’s still a chance the Senate could broker a deal. But even then, it would need support from the House, where GOP Speaker Mike Johnson has come under increasing pressure from Mr. Trump not to compromise. This, despite two-thirds of voters supporting stepped-up border security policies, according to the Harvard/Harris poll. 

What’s the scope of Senate talks?

This round of talks has focused nearly exclusively on border security and enforcement mechanisms rather than the more ambitious goals of reforming the asylum system or widening channels for legal immigration. 

That’s due in part to a spike in illegal immigration. Since Mr. Biden took office in 2021, Customs and Border Protection has had about three times as many encounters with migrants trying to enter the United States illegally as during former President Trump’s tenure, with daily crossings as high as 10,000. 

In October, following Hamas’ incursion into Israel, killing more than 1,400, Mr. Biden proposed a $106 billion national security package to bolster the sovereignty of allies under threat, including Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. He also included $13.6 billion for enhanced U.S. border security to sweeten the deal for Republicans, who have been more skeptical about supporting Ukraine.

In the wake of the Hamas raid, which caught Israel off guard, Republicans have raised concerns that terrorists could do the same in the U.S. More than 310 individuals on the U.S. terrorist watchlist have been arrested trying to cross the southwest border illegally since 2021, compared with 11 during Mr. Trump’s tenure, according to Customs and Border Protection statistics.

Some Republicans say it’s not just more money but a shift in border policy and enforcement that is needed. A key sticking point in the Senate negotiations has been whether to curtail humanitarian parole, which has traditionally been applied fairly narrowly. Under the Biden administration, more than 1 million migrants have entered the country via parole, according to internal government statistics obtained by CBS News.  

How does it compare with previous efforts?

Up until now, major congressional efforts to address immigration have sought to enact comprehensive reform, which would include enhanced border security as well as changes to an overburdened system. But a fix has proved elusive. 

In 1986, President Ronald Reagan signed an amnesty law that was supposed to “wipe the slate clean,” legalizing millions already in the country and in theory discouraging others through stepped-up employer restrictions on hiring. But that failed to stop the flow of migrants, or the demand for immigrant labor. 

The Immigration Act of 1990 expanded legal immigration but largely focused on higher-skilled workers. No significant immigration legislation has been passed since then. The last major effort was in 2013, when a “Gang of Eight” senators worked out a bipartisan comprehensive immigration reform bill in the Senate, only to have GOP House Speaker John Boehner refuse to bring it to a vote.

What has been different about these latest talks is that border policy is being negotiated on its own, separately from any larger immigration reform. There doesn’t appear to be any real effort right now to address the labor demand, employer enforcement, or the legal limbo of unauthorized immigrants and those brought over as children, known as the “Dreamers.”

“We’re a nation of immigrants; we’re a nation of laws,” says Doris Meissner, former commissioner of the U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service during the Clinton administration and now a senior fellow at the Migration Policy Institute. “Efforts in the past have always been trying to kind of thread the needle of those themes. And that’s gone now.”

Why is immigration so hard to address? 

While it makes sense in principle to link the various policy questions related to border security and immigration, politically it’s rarely worked. “There are too many ornaments on the Christmas tree for the Christmas tree to stand,” says Ms. Meissner. 

Plus, each side has benefited politically from blaming the other. Democrats say they’re in favor of border security, but that it needs to be paired with reforming the entire immigration system. They blame the current crisis at the border on Republicans rejecting previous deals.

“We need to have an honest conversation about how to get real immigration reform in this country without Republicans torpedoing it at the last minute as they have multiple times in the recent past,” says Democratic Rep. Seth Moulton of Massachusetts, a Marine who served in Iraq. “They’re just going to continue using this as a political football at the expense of America’s national security.”

Meanwhile, Republicans accuse Democrats of tolerating a more open border in hopes of increasing the party’s base, since minorities have tended to disproportionately support the Democratic Party. The GOP also says that writing new laws is pointless if the Biden administration won’t enforce them.

“We have a crisis because they refused to enforce our existing laws,” says GOP Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, the son of Cuban immigrants. “And I don’t personally trust [Mr. Biden] to enforce whatever they agree to in a new deal.”

Negotiating a deal has become harder since the 1980s and 1990s, when the parties were much closer on the issue, says Theresa Cardinal Brown, a former adviser with Customs and Border Protection who is now a senior fellow with the Bipartisan Policy Center in Washington. Still, she adds, most Americans hold moderate views on immigration. A July 2023 Gallup poll found that 68% of Americans see immigration as a good thing, while an NBC poll last fall showed that 74% support more funding for border security.

“They believe that legal immigration can be good for the country, but they want to see the border secure, too – these are not opposite things in their mind,” she says.

Editor’s note: A description of the rate of illegal immigration has been updated for greater clarity.