Could MAGA candidates in key swing states drag down Trump?

President Joe Biden may have some useful foils in November besides his presumptive opponent, former President Donald Trump: down-ballot “Make America Great Again” Republicans. 

With the top of the ticket featuring a rematch between two highly familiar and unpopular candidates, voter enthusiasm for the presidential race may lag. And operatives on both the left and right say that a handful of controversial, Trump-endorsed nominees in key swing states could wind up costing the GOP some winnable Senate seats and governorships – and potentially even undercut Mr. Trump’s presidential bid.

Call it a coattails effect but in reverse – and with a negative impact.

“For lack of a better term, it’s a negative trickle-up,” says Matt Grotsky, a Democratic strategist and former communications director for the Arizona Democratic Party.

In Arizona, a critical battleground state, polls show Mr. Trump currently leads Mr. Biden by 3 to 6 percentage points. But GOP Senate candidate Kari Lake is running behind her Democratic opponent there by as many as 8 points. The divisive former news anchor lost her 2022 gubernatorial bid after promoting Mr. Trump’s claims of election fraud and calling the late Arizona Sen. John McCain a “loser.” She then refused to concede, filing a lawsuit that was later dismissed.

Likewise in North Carolina, where Mr. Trump had his narrowest win in 2020, a new Quinnipiac poll shows the former president leading Mr. Biden by just 2 points, while GOP gubernatorial nominee Mark Robinson trails his Democratic opponent by 8. Mr. Robinson, the state’s lieutenant governor, has made headlines for calling homosexuality “filth,” suggesting abortion be banned from conception, and calling the Parkland school shooting survivors “spoiled, angry, know it all CHILDREN.”

Some Republican-leaning voters in these states may choose to split their tickets – casting ballots for both Mr. Trump and a Democrat – or just leave the down-ballot selection blank. Others may decide to stay home, or even change their minds about supporting Mr. Trump.

“Mark Robinson is a greater threat to Donald Trump than any legal challenges he faces,” says Paul Shumaker, a North Carolina Republican strategist who worked for one of Mr. Robinson’s primary opponents. Mr. Shumaker says the gubernatorial nominee’s inflammatory comments could sink the state for Mr. Trump. “When you have a weak candidate down ballot and a strong up top, how do you weaken that candidate? By tying him. ... That’s Politics 101.” 

Many Republican candidates have leaned into Mr. Trump’s MAGA brand since he won the presidency in 2016, but fewer have been able to ride it to victory. As Mr. Grotsky puts it, the past two election cycles have proved that Mr. Trump is in many ways a singular figure, and that voters often reject candidates who try to mimic his populist style at the state level.

A midterm setback 

The GOP learned this firsthand during the 2022 congressional midterm elections. Democrats performed better than expected, retaking the Senate after several Trump-endorsed nominees floundered with moderate voters. Now Democrats are hoping – and some Republicans are worrying – that this fall could be a repeat of two years ago, but this time with the White House on the line as well.

This week, reporting emerged that Montana GOP Senate candidate Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL whom Mr. Trump called an “American hero,” has told conflicting stories about a gunshot wound he said he got while deployed in Afghanistan. In Ohio, auto dealer and MAGA firebrand Bernie Moreno handily won the primary over a more traditional Republican whom Democrats had considered a greater threat. Dave McCormick, the GOP Senate candidate in Pennsylvania, is facing accusations that he actually lives in Connecticut – evoking similar carpetbagger claims that helped bring down the state’s 2022 GOP Senate candidate, Dr. Mehmet Oz.

The Senate map this cycle strongly favors Republicans, with Democrats defending five seats ranked as toss-ups or likely GOP pickups, and another four that could potentially be in jeopardy. Republicans, by contrast, have just two seats ranked “likely Republican” while the rest are all deemed safe.

But a similarly GOP-friendly map in 2022 wasn’t enough to overcome a slate of controversial, MAGA-aligned candidates. Some of those Republicans were boosted in their efforts to win the nomination by Democratic groups, who ran ads calling them “too conservative” or too aligned with Mr. Trump – a tactic Democrats have quietly repeated this cycle in states like Ohio.

Still, Democrats say they need to take seriously the possibility of MAGA candidates winning in November. In North Carolina, Anderson Clayton, chair of the state Democratic Party, notes that Mr. Robinson, the state’s current lieutenant governor, has already been elected statewide once. 

“The bottom of the ballot is going to help the top of the ticket in my state like none other,” says Ms. Clayton. “But for us to be able to have reverse coattails, we need to educate voters on who these candidates are.”

Some analysts remain skeptical that down-ballot races will ultimately have much effect on the presidential contest.

“Trump is such a polarizing figure to Democrats, and so is Biden to Republicans. What’s going to motivate people is the top of the ticket,” says Gary Jacobson, a political scientist at the University of California, San Diego. “Politics is so nationalized, and driven by attitudes focused on the presidency, that there is not a lot of breathing room down ticket for candidates to differentiate themselves.” 

How many split-ticket voters?

In recent years, the number of split-ticket voters – those backing candidates from different parties at the same time – has declined, as polarization has increased. The 2020 election had the lowest level of ticket-splitting since Pew Research Center started tracking the data in the early 1970s. 

But that’s not to say it doesn’t exist.

Democratic Sens. Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Jon Tester of Montana, both up for reelection this year, have won reelection in states that have become reliably Republican in presidential elections. Popular Republican governors won in New Hampshire and Vermont in 2016 and 2020, even as Hillary Clinton and Mr. Biden carried those states. This year, popular former Gov. Larry Hogan, a Republican, is currently leading in his race for Maryland Senate even as the state is expected to be a sure win for Mr. Biden. 

North Carolina specifically has a strong history in ticket-splitting. In the past two presidential election cycles, both Mr. Trump and Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper won the state. The current Democratic gubernatorial nominee, Josh Stein, was reelected as the state’s attorney general in 2020 – the same year Mr. Robinson was first elected lieutenant governor.

But some observers suggest that the slice of GOP voters who tell pollsters they support Mr. Trump but are put off by Mr. Robinson’s controversial stances could wind up turning its back on the former president as well. 

“Most of us who watch the state are looking to see what will be the influence of the governor’s race to drive the presidential race,” says Michael Bitzer, a political scientist at North Carolina’s Catawba College. In Mr. Trump and Mr. Robinson, “we’re seeing two Republican candidates at the top of the ticket who are very much aligned with each other,” he adds. “Can they push the envelope to where that small middle ground in North Carolina goes, ‘That’s just too much for me’?”