Could Nikki Haley be Trump’s running mate? Don’t rule it out.

Who will be Donald Trump’s running mate? With just a few months to go before the Republican National Convention, the search is intensifying, with the presumptive GOP nominee reportedly discussing possible contenders with friends, insiders, and even guests at Mar-a-Lago, while his campaign is quietly compiling dossiers and vetting candidates.  

Kristi Noem, the Trump-aligned governor of South Dakota who was once seen as a strong prospect, effectively quashed her chances of joining the GOP ticket after revealing that she deliberately shot and killed her family’s puppy because she believed the dog was “untrainable.” The backlash has been bipartisan and intense.

Recent reporting has suggested that Florida Sen. Marco Rubio – a former rival once dubbed “Little Marco” by Mr. Trump – is under serious consideration, in part because of his Hispanic heritage. Speculation has also centered on Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, author of a bestselling memoir on his Appalachian upbringing, while other names in the mix include South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, New York Rep. Elise Stefanik, and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott.

After last week’s primary in Pennsylvania, a crucial battleground in November, one intriguing name has reemerged: Nikki Haley. The former governor of South Carolina, who dropped out of the presidential race in March, won a notable 16.5% of Republican votes in Pennsylvania’s closed primary.

One was Rich Kain of Sewickley, a suburb of Pittsburgh. A lifelong Republican, he voted for Ms. Haley last week and, though he says it pains him, plans to vote for President Joe Biden in November.

“Trump is a demagogue,” says Mr. Kain, who owns a public relations firm.

But if Ms. Haley were on the ticket? “I’d have to strongly consider” voting for Mr. Trump, Mr. Kain says. He adds that given the advanced ages of both the former and current presidents, their running mates have taken on added importance this cycle.

With Pennsylvania one of just a handful of states that could decide the election, voters like Mr. Kain could offer Mr. Trump a strong reason to tap Ms. Haley as his running mate. 

Whether he would be willing to do so – and whether she’d accept – is another matter. Ms. Haley, who served as ambassador to the United Nations under President Trump before later running against him, stayed in the 2024 presidential race longer than any other major primary challenger, as the race grew increasingly heated. Mr. Trump nicknamed her “Birdbrain”; Ms. Haley overtly questioned his mental competence and still has not endorsed him.

Still, one GOP strategist who recently visited Mr. Trump’s Florida estate says Ms. Haley’s name “has been discussed.” While Mr. Trump’s “Make America Great Again” base “despises her,” this strategist says, they wouldn’t abandon the former president over it.

And Mr. Trump himself is known for being transactional, with a history of patching things up with onetime adversaries. See the recent detente between him and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, another primary challenger whom he had mocked mercilessly. The two are now reportedly discussing joint fundraising appearances.

Ultimately, history shows it’s the top of the ticket that matters, with running mates typically making little to no difference in terms of votes. That may be especially true in the case of a polarizing, spotlight-grabbing figure like Mr. Trump, experts say.

“Trump overshadows everything – whether he puts a mini-me in there or moves to the middle or tries to balance by race or gender,” says presidential historian David Pietrusza.

Veteran political analyst Charlie Cook also dismisses the idea that Mr. Trump’s running mate will matter much in November. And he warns against reading too much into a primary that took place after the nomination was already effectively decided.

But Mr. Cook acknowledges that Mr. Trump’s choice of Mike Pence as running mate in 2016 helped “smooth ruffled feathers” with the GOP’s evangelical base, particularly when Mr. Pence stuck with the reality TV star after the Access Hollywood scandal broke just before the election.

Six months before the 2024 vote, it’s impossible to predict what will matter most. For Mr. Trump, the safest bet might be to try to reach a broader pool of voters with his vice presidential choice – someone who could potentially appeal to suburban women, or men who want a more moderate tone, or both. In a year in which abortion has become a thorny political issue for Republicans, Ms. Haley has shown she can thread the needle with “common sense” rhetoric that doesn’t alienate the middle.

The bigger question for Ms. Haley might be whether she is willing to do what it takes to get the job. Vice President Pence was a loyal foot soldier to Mr. Trump until Jan. 6, 2021, when a pro-Trump mob invaded the U.S. Capitol to try to prevent him from presiding over the ceremony counting electoral votes for Mr. Biden. Mr. Pence went ahead with his official duties – a decision that constitutional experts applauded but that drew the ire of much of the GOP base.

Now Mr. Pence is a punchline. At the White House Correspondents’ Association dinner last Saturday, Mr. Biden joked that at least “my vice president actually endorses me.”

If Ms. Haley wants to run for president again in 2028, she may prefer to sit out the rest of 2024, calculating that attaching herself to the controversial Trump brand could be a negative.

“This vote in Pennsylvania wasn’t necessarily pro-Haley,” Mr. Cook says. “It was anti-Trump.”