Democrats are worried if Biden stays – or if he goes

Gary Roush is the kind of progressive who spends his retirement protesting former President Donald Trump. 

On Friday morning, the former technical writer rode the Metro from his home in College Park, Maryland, to the U.S. Supreme Court carrying a poster featuring Mr. Trump’s mug shot and the slogan, “Plotting to overturn an election is not an ‘official act,’ it’s a crime!” Mr. Roush says he “could not be more opposed to having Trump anywhere near the White House again.”

That’s exactly why he’s so unhappy with President Joe Biden.

Mr. Roush calls President Biden’s stumbling Thursday night debate performance an “absolute disaster,” adding it had convinced him that the president must drop his candidacy.

“Biden completely failed his efforts to show the nation that he isn’t a bumbling old man,” he says. 

Sentiments like Mr.  Roush’s are roiling the Democratic Party faithful on Friday, as some voters who desperately want to keep Mr. Trump from returning to the White House hoped that the 81-year-old president would step aside as a candidate and give another Democrat a chance. Many Democratic strategists and elected officials were privately wishing that they didn’t have Mr. Biden as their presumptive nominee as well, with buzz on Capitol Hill and throughout Washington about his abysmal performance. 

But the only person who can keep Mr. Biden from being the nominee at this point is Mr. Biden, who firmly rejected a question from a White House pool reporter after Thursday night’s debate about stepping aside. The president is well known for his pride and has made it clear he thinks he’s the best person to beat Mr. Trump, as he did in 2020. On Friday, Mr. Biden sought to reassure voters with an energetic performance at a rally in Raleigh, North Carolina.  

Mr. Biden has a famously tight-knit circle of close advisers, led by his wife, first lady Jill Biden, who have stood firmly by him in the past, even in the bleakest of political situations – like his lengthy struggles in the 2020 Democratic primaries before his stunning comeback.

And there were few signs Friday that other top Democrats were ready to step up and risk their relationship with the president to call for an unpredictable and chaotic scramble for the nomination, rather than stick with the guy their party has picked.

Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver of Missouri says that many in his party, including House colleagues, felt “panic-stricken” after Mr. Biden’s debate dud. But he doubts anyone close enough to Mr. Biden to have his ear would push him to drop out. 

“I don’t think anybody’s gonna go there and try to convince him not to run,” Representative Cleaver says. “The only people I think should have any legitimate opportunity to say something to him either way is his family. And I don’t think at this point we need to get involved. This is an overreaction.”

And while many Democrats wish they had someone better than the incumbent, many think the alternative of a free-for-all contested convention in August with multiple candidates battling to get party insiders to back them would be even worse.

“We don’t need an open convention. That’s too messy and dangerous,” Mr. Cleaver says. “That would be the answer to Trump’s prayer. That would be chaos at the highest level. We don’t need it.”

Whoever emerged from that scenario would be scarred by internal strife, picked by party insiders rather than by voters, and have almost no time to turn to the general election.

And even with voters worried about Mr. Biden’s age, he’s still done better in predebate surveys than his likeliest replacements. Polls have consistently shown that Mr. Trump’s lead over Vice President Kamala Harris has been more than his edge against Mr. Biden – and Mr. Trump has led by an even wider margin against other lesser-known potential Democratic candidates like California Gov. Gavin Newsom and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. 

The last time Democrats had a real contested convention was in 1980, when Sen. Ted Kennedy’s campaign against President Jimmy Carter hurt the incumbent and contributed to his fall defeat. Republican Ronald Reagan’s 1976 primary effort against President Gerald Ford hurt the incumbent as well. 

But if Mr. Biden steps down this could be even more of a free-for-all, with warring factions of Democrats and potentially no clear front-runner. Mr. Biden can’t just hand the nomination to Vice President Harris.

If Mr. Biden were to step aside as a candidate this close to the election, it would be unprecedented. The last time an eligible president opted not to run for reelection was in March of 1968. That’s a year Democrats absolutely do not want to relive. After primaries had already begun, President Lyndon Johnson chose not to run for a second full term. In June of that year, front-running candidate Robert F. Kennedy was assassinated. 

By August, Democrats were melting down as party bosses warred over weaker options and police clashed with protesters outside the Democratic National Convention. The eventual compromise nominee, Sen. Hubert Humphrey, was crushed by Republican Richard Nixon in the general election.

Memories of the 1968 Democratic convention – in Chicago, as with this year’s – still haunt the party.

Democrats were mostly eager to avoid reporters on Friday, darting through the congressional hallways while studiously avoiding eye contact or holding phones to their ears. Those who did talk mostly closed ranks around their beleaguered party leader.

Democratic Rep. Jim Clyburn of South Carolina, a former member of House leadership and a close Biden ally, concedes that Mr. Biden had a bad night. But when asked what he would say to Democrats who wanted Mr. Biden to step aside, he fired back.

“Stay the course. Chill out. Chill out,” Representative Clyburn says, pointing to a similar (but more profane) comment Democratic Sen. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania had posted on social media.

When a reporter asked Rep. Steny Hoyer of Maryland, former Democratic House majority leader, if his party needed a new candidate, he shot back.

“We’ve got a candidate. It’s Joe Biden,” Representative Hoyer told reporters. “He’s got an extraordinary record of accomplishment.”

No less a figure than former President Barack Obama also chimed in Friday on X: “Bad debate nights happen. Trust me, I know. But this election is still a choice between someone who has fought for ordinary folks his entire life and someone who only cares about himself.” 

Privately, though, Democrats weren’t so quick to defend their president.

When asked what would happen if Mr. Biden were to drop out, a House Democrat asked to remain anonymous so they could be honest: “There’s going to be some hard conversations today.”