Is Kamala Harris ready to step up?

Call it the Kamala Harris two-step: Acknowledge President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance, and then assert that he can recover. Full stop.

That’s been Vice President Harris’ message ever since the president stumbled badly June 27 in his first debate of the cycle against former President Donald Trump – a stunning turn that has left the Biden campaign reeling and raised questions among Democrats about whether Ms. Harris should be the one at the top of the ticket. 

If the vice president has a personal stake – including the possibility that she could become the nominee – in President Biden’s failure, she and her team are not letting on. By all appearances, including an apparent lack of leaks, they have remained steadfastly loyal to the man who brought Ms. Harris to this moment.

That’s smart politics, analysts say. And with the klieg lights suddenly on her every move, Ms. Harris has an opportunity to reintroduce herself to the American public after a rough start as vice president. Her stumbles involved tough policy assignments that didn’t play to her strengths, high-profile verbal miscues, and at-times awkward laughter that has turned into a damaging meme. 

Ms. Harris’ troubles have not all been of her own making. Early on, Mr. Biden seemed to distance himself from her as she struggled. He called her “a work in progress,” according to a book chronicling his first two years in office. 

All vice presidents are captive, to some degree, to what the boss and his team want of them, including talking points and staff hires. For Ms. Harris, the pressures have been amplified by her status as the nation’s first female, first Black, and first South Asian vice president, and by the president’s advanced age.

“It’s been a very slippery tightrope she’s walked, and it’s been difficult,” says a California Democratic politician who has known and worked with Ms. Harris for more than 20 years. 

Mr. Biden has insisted repeatedly that he won’t drop out of the 2024 race. But should Ms. Harris become the nominee, says the California Democrat, speaking not for attribution, those who know her believe she is ready for the challenge. 

“You do not become, as a woman of color, the San Francisco DA, the California AG, a United States senator from California, and the first woman vice president if you’re some kind of dummy,” the California Democrat says, referring to Ms. Harris’ past roles as city district attorney and state attorney general.

Past stumbles still resonate

Even at this high-stakes moment, with pressure on Mr. Biden to step aside, some party members and top donors have reservations about Ms. Harris being anointed as the nominee, preferring an open Democratic National Convention or even a quick “mini-primary” that allows the best candidate to rise to the top. 

Critics look to Ms. Harris’ own failed presidential campaign in the 2020 cycle, which ended before the first primary, as a flashing red light. Then, her campaign was marred by infighting and her own failure to articulate policy stances and a rationale for running. Her vice presidential office, too, struggled early with high staff turnover, but seems to have settled down. 

Still, Ms. Harris may have an ongoing reputational challenge among professional Democrats if she becomes the nominee.

“People within Democratic consultant circles worry about humility and the ability to keep a team together,” says a former campaign adviser to Ms. Harris.

The strategist also notes that, at this late stage in the campaign, a change of candidate at the top of the ticket would necessitate stability among the campaign staff. Other Democrats interviewed are certain that Ms. Harris would just inherit Mr. Biden’s team.  

From second fiddle to the president?

It’s also worth noting that Mr. Biden ran two unsuccessful presidential campaigns of his own – in the 1988 and 2008 cycles – before reaching the mountaintop. And his own two terms as vice president under President Barack Obama no doubt aided his case for the Democratic nomination, and ultimate victory, against Mr. Trump in 2020. 

As much as the vice presidency is the butt of jokes, it can be a springboard to the top job. Throughout U.S. history, seven vice presidents or former VPs have been elected to the presidency in their own right. 

But some critics say Democrats are fooling themselves if they believe Ms. Harris will be an improvement over Mr. Biden in a head-to-head competition with Mr. Trump. They’re letting their emotions rather than evidence guide them, says Mike Madrid, a California-based Republican consultant.

We’re in a political period now of voting against things, not for them, he explains. That makes the likelihood of the base rallying behind Mr. Biden or Ms. Harris in the closing weeks “about the same.” Mr. Biden’s age issue is already baked in, he says, noting that the FiveThirtyEight polling averages show no significant movement between Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden beyond a small post-debate bounce.

“What we’re seeing now is hysteria,” says Mr. Madrid, co-founder of the anti-Trump Lincoln Project – a Hail Mary pass based on “feelings” that Ms. Harris’ approval rating has bottomed out and is ready to go up. But “it’s far more likely that her numbers will go down,” he says – especially as Mr. Trump moves to define her.

Still, some Democrats say Ms. Harris is finally ready for her close-up, adding that her on-the-job training as VP will stand her in good stead, should she become the nominee. 

“With the vice presidency, it’s hard. You’re always playing second fiddle, getting sent to funerals and coronations,” says Peter Fenn, a veteran Democratic strategist who has known Mr. Biden for decades. But “I tell you, she has grown a great deal and shown her ability to be a good, strong president.” 

An extensive portfolio and hands-on training

From the start, Ms. Harris has taken on an extensive portfolio of issues, from COVID-19 vaccination and addressing the root causes of the southern border crisis to voting rights, workers’ rights, the digital divide, and the National Space Council. Since the overturning of Roe v. Wade two years ago, which ended the nationwide right to abortion, she has also been the administration’s point person on reproductive rights – one of the Democrats’ top issues for November and an issue about which she speaks fluently. 

Ms. Harris’ early mishaps, including a bungled interview with NBC anchor Lester Holt from Guatemala about the southern border, reportedly made her leery of doing more television, at least for a time. But she’s clearly emerged from the bunker.

After Mr. Biden’s debate disaster, she defended him vigorously on CNN. While the president is in Washington presiding over the NATO summit this week, Ms. Harris is appearing at a campaign rally Tuesday in Las Vegas, and on Wednesday will be at the Alpha Kappa Alpha Sorority’s gathering in Dallas.

The vice president has a devoted following among Black women – an essential Democratic constituency – who are dubbed the #KHive, a play on singer Beyoncé’s #BeyHive. If Mr. Biden drops out and Democrats don’t replace him with Ms. Harris, they risk alienating her core supporters, who might just stay home, political analysts say.

To some voters, all the memes around Ms. Harris make her seem a bit “cringe,” whether it’s “girlfriend” talk, or her love of Venn diagrams, or her late mother’s saying about coconut trees. 

But to retired Democratic strategist and Biden ally Robert Shrum, anyone who votes based on those memes isn’t going to vote Democratic anyway. 

At this point, her messaging problem is “almost irrelevant,” whether she becomes the nominee or continues as Mr. Biden’s running mate, says Mr. Shrum, who leads the Center for the Political Future at the University of Southern California. That’s because the message for 2024 is “obvious,” and the one that Mr. Biden is already using: “Trump is a bad guy. We’ve done a lot. We have a lot more to do.”