Biden is on a knife’s edge: Can he hang on?

Joe Biden lived to fight another day. 

But in performing adequately at a press conference last night, with some notable gaffes, the president only prolonged the profoundly consequential debate over whether he should be the Democratic Party’s nominee in November.

President Biden is fighting for his political life, amid serious concerns about mental acuity and his ability to defeat former President Donald Trump. Less than four months before Election Day, the clock is ticking. 

Mr. Biden’s core supporters expressed confidence in his performance, in which he spoke knowledgeably, if haltingly, about foreign policy after hosting a summit of NATO leaders in Washington. 

“I’m all in,” said Democratic Rep. Jim Clyburn of South Carolina on the “Today” show Friday. Representative Clyburn, who was key to Mr. Biden’s 2020 victory, recently raised eyebrows by suggesting a “mini primary” in the event that Mr. Biden dropped out of the race.

“Trump world” is watching closely, too. The view among the former president’s team is that they’d prefer to run against Mr. Biden, but they’re also prepping for the possibility that Vice President Kamala Harris becomes the nominee.

After Mr. Biden beat low expectations Thursday, at least one Republican strategist aligned with Mr. Trump agreed that the president didn’t disqualify himself. The Florida-based Trump ally, speaking anonymously to be more frank, assessed Mr. Biden’s press conference in a text to the Monitor: “Passable for another couple of days.” 

The steady drip of bad news for Mr. Biden continues. After the press conference, three more Democratic House members called on the president to drop out of the race: Jim Himes of Connecticut, Scott Peters of California, and Eric Sorenson of Illinois, bringing the number of House Democratic defections to at least 18. 

The swift announcements suggested that their news releases were ready to go before the press conference, and that barring a significantly improved performance by Mr. Biden after his disastrous debate June 27 with Mr. Trump, the members’ minds were made up. It didn’t help that, on Wednesday, actor George Clooney called on Mr. Biden to step aside, after interacting with him in person at a major fundraiser he hosted in Los Angeles last month. 

Right before the press conference, Mr. Biden stumbled badly. He mistakenly introduced Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as “President Putin” – quickly correcting himself, but the damage was done. Then, during the press conference, he answered a question on Vice President Harris’ fitness to be president by referring to her as “Vice President Trump.” 

Mr. Biden did say that his VP was qualified for the presidency – and opened the door a crack to leaving the race if his advisers told him he had no chance of winning. 

“I believe I’m the best qualified to govern,” Mr. Biden said. “And I think I’m the best qualified to win. But there are other people who could beat Trump, too. But it’s awful to start – to start – start from scratch.”

For now, polling averages show that Mr. Biden trails Mr. Trump by a few percentage points, and is far less popular than the presumptive GOP nominee within their respective parties. A PBS News/NPR/Marist poll released Friday showed that 40% of Democratic voters thought Mr. Biden should not be the party’s nominee – triple the share of Republicans who said the same thing about Mr. Trump.

“Right now, it’s a moving target – will Biden step down?” says Karlyn Bowman, an expert on polling at the American Enterprise Institute. “If you look below the hood, Biden’s weakness as a candidate, being able to do the job, is very significant.”

Most ominously for the Democrats, Mr. Biden’s standing in key battleground states has declined of late, shifting three – Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada – from toss-up to “lean Republican.” And must-win Pennsylvania has moved from “lean Democrat” to toss-up, according to Sabato’s Crystal Ball.

Examples of American presidents struggling in their reelection campaigns abound. Some recover and some don’t. Then there are those who opt out altogether. In March 1968, amid protests over the Vietnam War, President Lyndon Johnson shocked the nation by abandoning his campaign for a second full term. Another relevant case is President Harry Truman, who in March 1952 declined to run because of low job approval ratings.

Mr. Biden’s situation is different – the nation is not at war – but the political challenges related to an apparent decline, at times, in vigor and sharpness are no less profound. 

“The vast majority of presidents want a second term,” says Matthew Dallek, a political historian at George Washington University. “That’s historically been seen as the barometer of a successful presidency.”

But today, the context is in some ways dramatically different, he says. In the modern age, presidents are expected to disclose health issues with the public. Gone are the days when a president (Franklin Roosevelt) could hide the fact that he used a wheelchair or, in the case of President Woodrow Wilson, conceal incapacitation following a stroke.

The advent of social media, too, and the deluge of information now available to the public, have changed the ballgame. In 1984, when President Ronald Reagan was running for reelection as the then-oldest American to hold the office, his administration and campaign “were able to manage his image in ways that would simply be impossible today,” Professor Dallek says.

Mr. Biden and his team have no choice but to grapple with the new reality. Just a day after his first full press conference since November 2023, which may have kept some critics at bay, there’s more bad news. Donors are withholding some $90 million from a super political action committee devoted to the reelection campaign if Mr. Biden stays in the race, according to The New York Times.

On Thursday night, the top House Democrat, Hakeem Jeffries, met with Mr. Biden to convey the views of his caucus and discuss “the path forward,” the congressman said Friday. Mr. Biden met virtually Friday with various congressional groups to allay concerns about his electability. According to Politico, a House Democrat told the president to his face that he should drop out of the race. 

Mr. Biden’s reelection effort is clearly still on a knife’s edge.