Harris’ choice for veep hinges on who can lead – and deliver votes

Just days into her nascent 2024 presidential campaign, Vice President Kamala Harris is already facing her first big decision: picking a running mate.  

The vice-presidential search process – which typically involves a months-long vetting of several candidates – is now happening in a fraction of that time. Democrats reportedly are planning to nominate their ticket as soon as August 7, with a virtual roll call vote before the party’s convention in Chicago later that month.

So far, speculation as to whom Ms. Harris may ask to join the ticket has largely focused on a small group of popular governors and senators from key battleground states. That would be a departure from recent history, in which campaigns have largely discounted vice-presidential candidates’ ability to “deliver” a state, and the picks have often been driven by other factors, like an impressive résumé or personal chemistry.

“There are very few examples over the last 60-something years where a presidential candidate has chosen a running mate to carry their home state,” says Joel Goldstein, a professor at Saint Louis University Law School and expert on the vice presidency. But in an election that could come down to a handful of voters in a handful of states, as occurred in the two most recent presidential cycles, the calculus changes. “If you find [a good candidate] in one of those states, then maybe [Harris] is more likely to choose them than would have been the case in previous cycles, when the battlefield was larger.”

The Harris campaign also appears to be taking demographic and ideological considerations into account. Most of the candidates who have reportedly been asked to submit vetting documents are moderate, middle-aged white men who might appeal to a different set of voters than a Black, female politician from California. It’s the same kind of calculation President Joe Biden made, in reverse, when he tapped Ms. Harris in 2020. Above all, the campaign’s priority will be picking a vice president who’s ready for primetime and whom America could envision as a plausible president. 

While it’s possible a dark-horse candidate could wind up getting the nod, among those reportedly under consideration, three high-profile, swing-state officials are generating the most buzz. 

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro

Arguably no state is more important for Democrats in November than Pennsylvania, which Mr. Biden won by less than two percentage points in 2020. Two years later, then-Attorney General Josh Shapiro won the governorship by almost 15 points – albeit against a weak Republican candidate – setting a record for the most votes ever received by a gubernatorial candidate in the Keystone State. One poll found Mr. Shapiro to have the highest approval rating among his four immediate predecessors at the one-year mark, with almost half of all voters saying he is doing an “excellent” or “good” job. Another poll found that 59% of Pennsylvanians – including 36% of Republicans – approved of Mr. Shapiro’s first year in office. 

In his short time in office, Mr. Shapiro has been praised for his quick reopening of I-95 after a fire caused a section of the highway to collapse, as well as his unifying response to the attempted assassination of Mr. Trump in his state. Mr. Shapiro, who would be the first Jewish vice president if chosen and elected, could also help Ms. Harris refute Republican attacks on the Democratic Party as being pro-Hamas. He has said he feels a unique responsibility to speak out on the Israeli-Palestinian issue, and he has been critical of Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, while also condemning a rise in antisemitism and the protests on college campuses this spring. 

“It’s rare that a vice-presidential nominee can deliver a state, but the thing about Josh Shapiro is that he is popular across party lines,” says Mike Mikus, a Democratic strategist based in Pittsburgh who worked with former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Wolf. “Democrats like him. Independents like him. A sizable number of Republicans like him.”

The Harris campaign is likely eyeing the 17% of Pennsylvania Republican primary voters who voted for former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley over former President Donald Trump in the state’s GOP primary earlier this year. These anti-Trump Republicans might be open to voting for the Democratic ticket if their own popular governor was the vice-presidential nominee.

“[Shapiro] is a very talented political tactician,” says Mr. Mikus. “He always seems to strike the right tone at the right moment.”

Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly

Like Mr. Shapiro, Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly has experience running – and winning – campaigns against MAGA-aligned candidates. 

After serving as a U.S. Navy pilot and NASA astronaut, including four trips into space, Mr. Kelly was first elected to the U.S. Senate in a 2020 special election to fill the seat of the late Sen. John McCain. His win marked the first time since the 1950s that Arizona had two Democratic senators. After less than two years in Washington, Mr. Kelly then ran for a full term against venture capitalist Blake Masters, winning by almost 5 points. 

Mr. Masters, like Mr. Trump’s newly named vice president, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, was backed by Silicon Valley executive Peter Thiel and leaned into a strong MAGA message on the campaign trail – an experience that could help Mr. Kelly run against his Republican counterpart if picked, says Tony Cani, a Democratic strategist and 2020 deputy director for the Biden-Harris campaign in Arizona. 

“When you are running to win in states like Arizona, where in recent elections you won by under 11,000 [votes], you are looking for every possible advantage,” says Mr. Cani, referring to Mr. Biden’s 0.3% win over Mr. Trump in 2020. Thus far in polls, Mr. Trump has been running ahead in many of the states that Mr. Biden flipped in 2020, including Arizona.

On the other hand, if Mr. Kelly were selected, Democrats would risk losing a Senate seat. Arizona Democrats would have to find another candidate to run in what would likely be a close campaign, several years earlier than expected. 

Still, Mr. Kelly could help Ms. Harris on the issue of immigration, which the Trump campaign has already telegraphed will be a main line of attack. The Arizona senator has publicly urged his party to take a tougher approach on border security, and he has criticized Republicans for rejecting solutions like the bipartisan bill that was proposed earlier this year. On the issue of guns, Mr. Kelly offers a nuanced perspective: a gun owner himself, Mr. Kelly has pushed for “common sense” gun laws after the 2011 attempted assassination of his wife, then-Arizona Rep. Gabrielle Giffords. In the years since, Mr. Kelly and Ms. Giffords have run one of the most successful “gun safety” advocacy organizations. 

“Voters of all ages react well to knowing the love and conviction he has for his wife, who was also a massive figure in Arizona when the shooting happened,” says Mr. Cani. “In this time when political rhetoric is so overheated, having someone who has consistently stood up against that because of his own experience and offered common-sense solutions, I think that is something that voters will appreciate on the national stage.” 

North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper

Like Mr. Shapiro and Mr. Kelly, Mr. Cooper is reportedly being closely considered for the VP spot. A stalwart of North Carolina Democratic politics for almost 40 years, Mr. Cooper began his political career in both state houses before being elected attorney general and then governor in 2017. Like Mr. Shapiro in Pennsylvania, Mr. Cooper has a favorability rating that’s ahead of Mr. Biden’s by double digits in North Carolina. And he could give Democrats a leg up in one of the seven closest states from 2020, where current polling shows them running well behind. 

Mr. Cooper can also point to successes working across the aisle. After taking office in early 2017, he set about trying to persuade North Carolina’s GOP legislature to join a majority of U.S. states in opting into a Medicaid expansion program through the Affordable Care Act, which covers Americans who make too much money to qualify for traditional Medicaid but not enough to afford private health insurance. His persistence paid off: Last year the Republican-controlled General Assembly passed legislation approving of the expansion, and Mr. Cooper signed it into law. So far, more than 500,000 North Carolinians have enrolled.

During Governor Cooper’s tenure, North Carolina has been rated “Best for Business” by CNBC two years in a row. A former Sunday School teacher who has never lost an election, Mr. Cooper, who was raised in rural Nash County, could also help Ms. Harris expand her southern and rural support, a useful counter to her own West Coast biography.

When picking a vice president, “You’re trying to compliment your own strength or address your perceived weaknesses,” says Mr. Goldstein. “But you’re also sending messages that you ‘get it.’ You’re saying, ‘This matters to me.’”

Other names in the mix  

Several other officials have reportedly been asked to provide information to the Harris campaign, including Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, a Democrat from a deep-red state whom voters praised for his reassuring nightly briefings during the early days of the COVID-19 lockdown. Although Kentucky won’t be a competitive state for Democrats in the presidential election, Mr. Beshear speaks easily to rural and religious voters, often mentioning his own Christian faith, which could help the Democratic ticket elsewhere. 

Illinois also isn’t considered up for grabs this November – Democrats should win the state handily – but its governor, JB Pritzker, is also reportedly being considered. Many Democrats have taken note of his sharp, fearless jabs at Mr. Trump over the years. There’s also his personal fortune – Mr. Pritzker is a billionaire – which could be useful in what’s sure to be an expensive race. 

Other names in the mix include Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who ran for president in 2020 and has impressed many Democrats with his deft media appearances, including on Fox News. Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who has been on a book tour promoting a new memoir, has refuted reports that the Harris campaign has asked her to provide vetting materials. She has reiterated that she plans to finish out the next two and half years of her term as governor. Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz on the other hand, whose name was not on many original short lists, has drawn attention in recent days for strong cable news hits. The former high school teacher has been making the case for Ms. Harris’ candidacy, leading Mr. Trump to criticize Fox News for inviting Mr. Walz on as a guest. He’s also been joking on social media about how he came to lack a full head of hair.  

With the exception of Ms. Whitmer, however, none of these candidates could help deliver a swing state.

“We’ve got some really compelling people who have won difficult races,” says Mr. Cani. “When you have so many good options, you’ll still consider the geography question even if it’s not the primary one.”