RFK Jr.’s impending exit is the first good news for Trump in a month

President Joe Biden’s abrupt exit from the 2024 presidential race right on the heels of the Republican National Convention last month put an immediate halt to former President Donald Trump’s momentum. Now, a third-party candidate may return the favor by stepping on the Democrats’ gathering just as it ends. 

Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s campaign has announced he will make a major speech about the future of his race on Friday, the day after the conclusion of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago. Multiple publications have reported that he plans to drop out – and that he is in discussions to endorse Mr. Trump. That would be the first good news for Mr. Trump since Mr. Biden abandoned his campaign and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris a month ago.

Mr. Kennedy, a former Democrat whose late father and uncles are iconic figures in the party, could help bring a majority of his remaining supporters into the Republican fold.

Dennis Kucinich, a former Democratic congressman and presidential candidate who ran Mr. Kennedy’s campaign until last October, says he thought his friend’s exit from the race could help Mr. Trump significantly in such a close race.

“It has the potential to be very helpful for President Trump in battleground states where a point or two separates him and Vice President Harris,” he says. “Kennedy has support among populist Republicans, and I’m sure he’ll be able to bring them back in the fold for Trump.” 

Gaining a strong following – then fading

Polls have shown for months that Mr. Kennedy is now more popular with Republicans than Democrats. At one time, he had been siphoning slightly more voters from Democrats, according to national and state polls. But since Vice President Harris moved to the top of the ticket, she pulled back many Democratic voters who had previously been unhappy with their major-party choices – including many Kennedy supporters.

Mr. Kennedy’s support has been slowly eroding from a high of around 15% in national surveys. He was polling at 8% in mid-July and is down to 4% now, according to the New York Times’ polling average. The majority of those still supporting Mr. Kennedy now are more likely to back Mr. Trump than Ms. Harris if he leaves the race. That could make a big difference in a presidential election that polls currently show is a coin flip.

Mr. Kennedy came into the race with some big assets. First and foremost, his legendary name helped draw interest and press curiosity. He’d long been a popular environmentalist; later he became a more controversial figure due to his vocal public skepticism of vaccines. His antiestablishment stance attracted many voters who’d grown distrustful of institutions, particularly in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Whom RFK Jr. supporters might vote for now

Not all of Mr. Kennedy’s supporters would be keen to vote for Mr. Trump, despite a possible endorsement.

Ray Tretro, a New Jersey retiree, voted for Democrats in the past two presidential elections but had planned to vote for Mr. Kennedy this time around. He says he would “lose respect” for Mr. Kennedy if he endorses Mr. Trump, and would “most likely” vote for Ms. Harris instead.

Vicki, a retiree in upstate New York who had planned to vote for Mr. Kennedy, says she’d already voted for Mr. Trump twice and she “really didn’t want to do it again, because the lesser of two evils don’t work for me.” But now, she’s likely to cast a reluctant vote for Mr. Trump. 

Mr. Kennedy and Mr. Trump have been in talks for more than a month about Mr. Kennedy dropping out and endorsing the Republican ticket. Mr. Kennedy’s son posted a video to X of the two speaking by phone in mid-July, right before the Republican National Convention. “We’d love you to do something. And I think it’ll be so good for you and so big for you. And we’re going to win,” Mr. Trump can be heard saying to Mr. Kennedy. The two then met in person in Milwaukee. 

On Tuesday, Mr. Kennedy’s running mate, billionaire Nicole Shanahan, said that she and Mr. Kennedy were debating whether to stay in the race and “risk” a President Harris or drop out and “join forces” with the Trump campaign. 

Mr. Trump told CNN on Tuesday that he “probably would” consider giving Mr. Kennedy a role in his administration.

“I like him a lot. I respect him a lot,” Mr. Trump said. “He’s a very different kind of a guy – a very smart guy. And, yeah, I would be honored by that endorsement, certainly.”

What Democrats are saying about RFK Jr.’s departure

Democrats for their part downplayed how much impact Mr. Kennedy’s exit would have on the race.

“He was a spoiler from the beginning,” former Democratic National Committee Chair Tom Perez says with a shrug.

“I didn’t think he was going to have that much of an impact. And eventually, I think he realized he wasn’t going to have that much of an impact,” former New York Rep. Joe Crowley says. “I think [his exit] probably cuts both ways to some degree.”

Mr. Crowley says he knew Mr. Kennedy a bit back when he was a state legislator from Queens, and Mr. Kennedy was an environmental activist working alongside folk music icon Pete Seeger to try to clean up the Hudson River.

“I gotta think Pete Seeger’s rolling in his grave right now with what Bobby Kennedy’s doing politically,” he says. “It’s just antithetical to everything Pete Seeger ever stood for.”

Ironically, Democrats had spent more than a year flaying Mr. Kennedy and his campaign because they were concerned about his ability to draw votes away from their nominee. 

Democrats fought to keep Mr. Kennedy off the ballot in numerous states, worried that he could be a spoiler for their chances. The Democratic National Committee has been sending regular blasts attacking him, and the liberal group MoveOn has highlighted his controversial views and connections to Mr. Trump.

“As we’ve been saying for months, RFK Jr. is a tool for Trump,” MoveOn Political Action Executive Director Rahna Epting said in a statement.

Staff writer Story Hinckley contributed to this report.