Why Harris has more at stake in Tuesday’s debate than Trump

The last presidential debate upended the 2024 election. This one could prove just as consequential.

When Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump meet onstage Tuesday night for their first – and possibly only – debate, it will give Americans their first side-by-side comparison of their choices for president.

Ms. Harris arguably has the most at stake. Americans’ opinions of Mr. Trump are firmly established after nearly a decade on the national stage. But many voters are still learning about Ms. Harris, who suddenly ascended to the top of the Democratic ticket after the previous debate drove President Joe Biden from the race. And they’re still deciding whether they like and trust her enough to put her in the Oval Office.

“Everybody knows Trump at this point,” says Todd Graham, a presidential debate expert who coaches debate at Southern Illinois University. “This is a big opportunity for Vice President Harris to showcase herself for the first time in front of everybody on the same stage as Trump. I would say it’s crucially important.”

Risk and opportunity for Trump, too

Mr. Trump’s performance could matter greatly, too. He’s capable of delivering sharp rhetorical jabs – his 2016 primary campaign rise was aided by his cage-match takedowns of opponents on the debate stage. But other performances have been uneven, with overly aggressive, bullying behavior hurting him in the polls both in 2016 and 2020. His June debate performance against President Biden was far from stellar, but was overshadowed by the president’s inability to articulate basic points. Mr. Trump has shown a lack of discipline on the campaign trail in recent days, attacking the women who have accused him of sexual assault as liars, and promising again to pardon his supporters who attacked the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6.

“This will be the defining event for Kamala Harris. And Donald Trump can either distract from that, or help define her in a way that advantages him in the campaign,” says Brett O’Donnell, a GOP debate coach who worked for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ presidential campaign in 2024.

The debate, hosted by ABC News, comes as polls show a tied race in the states that will determine who wins in November. Not surprisingly, both candidates have sought to downplay expectations. 

“I’m going into very hostile territory in a debate with ABC,” Mr. Trump said Friday in extended remarks to reporters in New York City in which he didn’t take questions. “ABC is the worst of everybody. They’re the nastiest. They’re as bad as you can be.”

Ms. Harris and her team have repeatedly described her as an “underdog” in both the race and the debate. Democrats also point out that Mr. Trump has much more experience in presidential debates – not to mention decades spent as a fixture on TV.

“There’s never been a presidential candidate who’s done more presidential debates than Donald Trump. He has experience doing them, and he plays well on camera. That’s why his biggest career achievement is running a reality TV show,” says Democratic strategist Jesse Ferguson.

The swing voters who won’t be watching

Many of the voters most likely to decide the election probably won’t be watching it live, Mr. Ferguson adds, but will form their opinions based on what breaks through in clips and headlines afterward. Undecided voters tend to be less politically engaged, and many are just starting to tune into the election. 

“The conversation that will matter the most is the one people have the morning after the debate with their family members and friends,” he says.

Ms. Harris’ campaign unsuccessfully sought to change a rule about candidates’ microphones being muted when it wasn’t their turn to speak. Back when President Biden was still the candidate, his team had pushed for this rule, thinking it would keep Mr. Trump from talking over him. Instead, Mr. Biden’s at-times incoherent remarks wound up on full display in the June debate. Ms. Harris’ team seemed to think keeping the mics on might expose Mr. Trump’s bullying tendencies while giving her a chance to fact-check him in real time – but they lost that fight. Tuesday’s debate in Philadelphia will also take place without an audience.

Harris’ uneven track record in debates

Ms. Harris has had a mixed record when it comes to debate performances. Her best moments have come when she’s used her well-honed prosecutorial skills to go after her opponents. She made a national name for herself grilling Republicans on the Senate Judiciary Committee, leaving now-Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh and then-Attorney General Bill Barr stammering for words in response to pointed questions.

When Ms. Harris herself has been attacked, however, she has wound up parsing words, growing defensive, or awkwardly trying to laugh off serious questions. This year, she has so far shown herself to be a much-improved candidate since her ill-fated first presidential run, but she has yet to be tested with many tough questions. The campaign has granted just one sit down TV interview in the month-plus she’s been the nominee.

“She had some good moments – and some learning moments – from the 2020 campaign,” says Brian Brokaw, a former Harris adviser who was involved in her debate prep during her statewide runs in California for attorney general and Senate. “One thing that has been consistent throughout her career is: She has consistently improved significantly.”

The high point of Ms. Harris’ 2020 presidential run came when she eviscerated her future running mate, Mr. Biden, on the debate stage, calling him out for working with segregationist senators to block school busing. She personalized the moment with a memorable line about how she had been part of the second class to integrate in her school system – “that little girl was me.”

But in another primary debate she was rattled by an attack from then-Democratic Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, who pummeled her record as California attorney general on incarceration rates. Ms. Gabbard is now backing Mr. Trump, and helping him with debate prep.

Ms. Harris held her own during the 2020 general election debate against then-Vice President Mike Pence – a debate that is likely remembered by voters, if at all, for the fly that settled on Mr. Pence’s hair for a full two minutes.

On Tuesday, she will almost certainly try to get under Mr. Trump’s skin. He has made a number of missteps since she entered the race, most notably when he questioned, at an event with the National Association of Black Journalists, whether Ms. Harris really is a Black woman. 

Republicans are hoping Mr. Trump will keep his focus on policy issues, and avoid personal attacks that could turn off swing voters.

“The advice I’d give to Donald Trump is, I would write four words at the top of my pad: weak, failed, dangerously liberal. And everything I said in that debate should be to support proving those four words about Kamala Harris,” says Mr. O’Donnell. “Anything else I would not say. I wouldn’t attack her personally.”