2024 Election Day live updates – Michigan’s Arab American voters torn over war in Gaza

Live election coverage of the 2024 presidential election between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, and on the ground reporting from around the country.

Welcome to the Monitor’s live Election Day updates. Throughout the day, we will be providing short takes on how voting is going, who’s turning out and why, and ultimately, who are the winners and losers. Control of the White House, the U.S. House, and Senate hangs in the balance. We’re also tracking statewide ballot measures – on abortion rights, immigration, and marijuana, among others. Monitor reporters have fanned out to the key battleground states, and will provide regular updates, as will our anchors in Washington and Los Angeles. In an election like no other in American history, the stakes could not be higher. Please check back regularly for updates!

3:55 p.m. ET: Easton voters agree on problems, but split on problem solvers

Food is too expensive. That’s one thing that two voters in Easton, Pennsylvania, agree on. But they don’t agree on which candidate is more likely to fix that. 

Gerry Butler, who used to work for a company that made shampoo and conditioner, voted for Kamala Harris. Meanwhile, Betty, a retired hairdresser who declined to share her last name citing concern for family members’ privacy, voted for Donald Trump.

“I’ve noticed that everything in the supermarket has gotten smaller and higher prices,” says Ms. Butler. A registered Democrat, she voted for Mr. Biden in 2020, and says she is pleased with the efforts that the Biden-Harris administration has made to ease economic pressures – though she thinks they’ve been limited by opposition from Congressional Republicans.

Betty, too, feels the impact of higher food prices. “It was so much easier four years ago,’’ she says. “The gas wasn’t this high, and we had money to buy food.” A registered Democrat who recalls voting for former President Barack Obama, Betty is a three-time Trump voter. “I liked the way he promised us things, and he carried through,” she says. “I don’t like the way he talks.”

Food prices have risen more sharply in Philadelphia and the surrounding area than almost anywhere else in the country since 2021. And the state saw the highest increase in grocery prices of any state in 2023. Eight in 10 voters nationally say that the economy is their top priority in this election, and a Nov. 1 poll of Pennsylvanians found voters split almost down the middle. Some 51% believe that Mr. Trump would handle the economy better, and 49% believe Ms. Harris would.

Sophie Hills, staff writer, reporting from Easton, Pennsylvania

3:50 p.m. ET: DJs at the Polls provide mood music for voters

Michael Duke, a DJ, mostly does weddings. Today in Gilbert, Arizona, he’s offering dance-worthy jams for democracy. With his speaker outside Freestone Recreation Center, he’s trying to pump voters up. He’s part of a national effort through DJs at the Polls, a group that calls itself a nonpartisan get-out-the-vote initiative.

“It’s important to involve everyone in the process of voting,” says the DJ. “It’s all about America.”

He does indeed start his set with “Party in the U.S.A.” by Miley Cyrus. He also says he’s taking requests.

“Let’s make voting a party,” he says.

– Sarah Matusek, staff writer, reporting from Gilbert, Arizona

3:45 p.m. ET: The Wisconsin voter who stayed up all night to vote

Voters pulled their jackets tight around them and leaned into the wind as they sought the shelter of the polling place set up for the day at the D2 Sports Bar in Hobart, a township in Wisconsin’s Brown County, a mostly working class county in a state that both sides worked hard to win over in the final days of the 2024 campaign. The weather was miserable. The rain lashed the empty fields and suburban housing complexes just outside Green Bay while a cold wind tore at the last yellow and brown leaves that still clung to the trees in the surrounding woods. But the weather seemed hardly to discourage voters. The parking lot filled early, as residents hurried to cast their vote before rushing off to work. They seemed just as divided as the polls in Wisconsin have suggested.

Eddie Smith was one of the first. He finished work as a blackjack dealer at 4 a.m. at the Oneida Casino a few miles away. He hadn’t gone to bed but had stayed up to vote. A lifelong Democrat, he said he voted for Kamala Harris, though his vote seemed as much against Donald Trump as for Ms. Harris.

“She’s the better alternative,” he said. He went on, “I think Donald Trump is dangerous. His rhetoric, how he’s stated he wants to weaponize the government.”

Meanwhile, he said, the country is “doing okay.” He paused and gave a small chuckle. “The economy is doing better than it was four years ago. Immigration isn’t where it should be. They tried to fix it but [Republicans] shut that down.”

Chris Gresham, who also came early, voted for Donald Trump. “I think Donald Trump is concerned about the same things the average American is concerned about, which are the border and the economy,” said Mr. Gresham, a young press operator at a printing plant in DePere. “I just know that when he was in office he did everything he could to control our border and that’s what he’ll do this time.”

This was his third time voting for Trump, he said. Then he pulled his hood tighter around his head and hurried to his car.

– By Richard Mertens, special contributor, reporting in Hobart, Wisconsin

2:37 p.m. ET: Arab American voters in Michigan grapple over war in the Middle East

Pocketbooks determine elections. But in this part of Michigan, it could come down to foreign policy.

The city of Dearborn in Michigan counts 55% of residents with Middle Eastern or North African ancestry, the largest Arab American majority city in America. The community has historically voted Democrat, but this year is like no other.

This state spurred the Uncommitted Movement, which pledged not to endorse President Joe Biden in the Democratic primary, over U.S. support for Israel in the war in Gaza. The movement’s members are demanding a ceasefire. Two nearby mayors, in Hamtramck and Dearborn Heights, have endorsed former President Donald Trump.

Zana Dakroub is of Lebanese descent and is playing T-ball with her grandson across from a polling station in Dearborn. “My biggest concern is my safety,” she says. She’s not talking about her personal safety in her home, with its tidy lawn at the corner of a leafy street lined with handsome “Ford homes.” “I don’t feel safe in the world, and I think there’s a better percentage with Trump than with [Harris] to put an end to the wars.”

The Arab American voting bloc is estimated at 200,000 here. That is bigger than the number of votes with which Mr. Trump won Michigan in 2016 (11,000) and lost in 2020 (154,000). Nasser Aljahmi, of Yemeni descent, is handing out flyers for school board elections outside a polling station in this Dearborn community. He cites the exact top concerns as Ms. Dakroub – economy and foreign policy. But his vote is going for Ms. Harris, despite sharing concerns that the Democratic Party has gone too liberal on social issues, especially in schools. “I want the war to be stopped. And they are both weak on it. … But I feel that Harris is more humane.”

Mr. Aljahmi says he would vote Republican, as he has in several past elections, if it were any other candidate. “Mine is a vote against Trump.”

– Sara Miller Llana, staff writer, reporting from Dearborn, Michigan

1:45 p.m. ET: In Georgia, turnout today is light. It’s not what you think.

Greetings from the Peach State, where it’s Election Day Lite today.

Over 4 million people have already voted, according to Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger. That leaves only 1.5 million to 2 million people left to vote today across the 59,000-square-mile Deep South state.

Small, rural counties, most of them traditional Republican strongholds, will wrap up counting first, likely leading to a large Trump lead early in the evening, especially considering some North Georgia counties where he is expected to get over 70% of the vote.

Then, all eyes will turn to the five major counties around Atlanta, especially the northern suburbs, where Joe Biden narrowly won the 2020 election.

Key to watch will be the impact of Trump wariness in this state, where the former president tried to pressure Gov. Brian Kemp to procure the votes he needed to win in 2020. In the aftermath, Georgia’s Republican party largely split into two camps – pro-Trump and anyone-but-Trump.

Since then, elections have resulted in candidates with close ties to Mr. Trump, like Herschel Walker, losing and candidates who have resisted Trump’s gravitational pull, like Governor Kemp, winning. A snapshot of that dynamic: all of Georgia’s constitutional officers are Republicans, while its two U.S. senators are Democrats.

A key reason Trump has been up in the polls so far in Georgia is the gender gap factor. Registered male voters are 18 percentage points more likely to vote for Mr. Trump. Female voters are 16 percentage points more likely to vote for Ms. Harris. There are more active women voters than men in Georgia.

As a result, Mr. Trump’s hopes in this state lie with mobilizing “young good old boys who usually don’t vote,’’ says Charles Bullock, a veteran political scientist at the University of Georgia, in Athens.

But the latest Times/Siena poll shows that the gender gap has narrowed to nearly even. If that holds, Ms. Harris has a good shot at following in President Biden’s footsteps and winning Georgia. After all, according to the Secretary of State’s office, the massive early vote has been 55% women and 45% men.

Stay tuned.

– Patrik Jonsson, staff writer, reporting from Georgia’s Baldwin County

1:10 p.m. ET: This Pennsylvania county’s voters have a history of picking presidents

When campaign organizers woke up today in eastern Pennsylvania, they probably breathed a collective sigh of relief at the bright sun and clear blue skies. Weather, at least, won’t keep voters from the polls. For weeks now, voter turnout has been the name of the game here. Workers for Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign in the Keystone State say they knocked on 807,000 doors last Saturday alone, while former President Donald Trump’s campaign has struggled to organize its ground game. Mr. Trump, however, has the star power of billionaire tech entrepreneur Elon Musk, who’s running a controversial $1 million voter registration giveaway and has spent significant time stumping across the state for the Republican nominee.

Polling shows that Ms. Harris and Mr. Trump are separated by a razor-thin margin in Pennsylvania, which carries 19 electoral votes.

Here in Northampton County, voters have backed the winning presidential candidate in all elections but three for over 100 years. Former President Obama won the county in 2012, which then swung to former President Trump in 2016. In 2020, President Biden won the county by less than one percentage point, or 1,233 votes.

Once the headquarters of Bethlehem Steel, a giant American steel manufacturer for almost 150 years, the area has reinvented itself since the plant closed in 2003. There’s been steady population growth, and the Latino population – mainly Puerto Rican and Dominican – has quadrupled since the 1990s, even while other formerly-industrial Rust Belt communities shrink.

Sam Dao, a Harris voter in Easton, registered as a Democrat in 2020 but didn’t cast a ballot because he was confident Mr. Biden would win. This election is his first time voting. With Ms. Harris’ experience in all three branches of government, “it’s a given that she should be president,” he says.

“I just feel like Trump sets a bad precedent,” he says, adding that he finds the former president’s rhetoric to be “racist, derogatory, and dehumanizing” – especially at the recent Madison Square Garden rally.

Ms. Harris rallied yesterday in Allentown, on the county’s border, and Mr. Trump did the same in Reading.

– Caitlin Babcock and Sophie Hills, staff writers, reporting from Easton, Pennsylvania

12:46 p.m. ET: Independent voters are likely to determine who wins Nevada

In Nevada, tight races could be decided by people like Laura Beth Gwiazdowski, a registered independent voter. She cast her ballot for Vice President Kamala Harris shortly after polls opened on Election Day in Las Vegas.

“I’m a gay woman, so I want a representative that’s going to not take away rights – that’s going to ensure that me and people in my community are safe,” she says while standing outside Allegiant Stadium, a vote center in the shadows of the famed Las Vegas Strip.

Ms. Harris and former President Donald Trump have been jockeying for Nevada’s six electoral votes with frequent campaign stops in the Silver State, where about a third of active registered voters are nonpartisans.

Heading into Election Day, more than half (53.5%) of eligible registered voters in Nevada had participated through mail ballots, absentee ballots, or early voting. Of those votes already cast, 33.8% came from registered Democrats, 37.7% from registered Republicans, and 28.6% from nonpartisans and other political parties.

Today’s big question is how many more voters will turn out – and whether nonpartisan voters will break for Democrats or Republicans. Just past 9 a.m. local time, 28,846 people had voted on Tuesday in populous Clark County, which includes the Las Vegas metropolitan area.

Among them was Diana Serna, who voted for President Joe Biden in 2020 but this time cast her ballot for former President Donald Trump. The mother of a 5-month-old son, she says her decision came down to inflation and the war in the Middle East.

“There was no war when Mr. Trump was in presidency compared to the last four years,” says Ms. Serna, who moved to Las Vegas from Lebanon 12 years ago.

– Jackie Valley, staff writer, reporting from Las Vegas

12:38 p.m. ET: Georgia officials link poll site bomb threats to Russia

In the crucial swing state of Georgia, election officials have reported false bomb threats to some polling sites this morning – and they have linked those threats to Russia.

Nadine Williams, director of registration and elections in Fulton County, said they have received five “non-credible” bomb threats, resulting in the temporary evacuation of two polling locations at local schools Tuesday morning, the Atlanta News First reported. Officials in Fulton County, home to Atlanta, have requested to keep two polling locations open for an extra 30 minutes tonight, CNBC reported.

At a press conference later in the morning, Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger said the bomb threats had come from Russia.

“They’re up to mischief, it seems, and they don’t want us to have a smooth, fair, and accurate election,” he said. “Anything that can get us to fight among ourselves, they can count that as a victory.”

– Henry Gass, staff writer, reporting from Austin, Texas

12:27 p.m. ET: The New Hampshire voters crossing party lines

Hello from Belknap County, New Hampshire. Since 2008, this county has traditionally been a Republican stronghold. But this Election Day, signs show that voters here are now leaning over party lines.

John Miller, 88, a retired school maintenance worker, switched his affiliation from Republican to Democrat two years ago. He still supports Republicans in some local races. But “I wasn’t going to vote for Trump,’’ says Mr. Miller. “He’s caused more trouble than anybody.’’

After voting for Donald Trump in 2016, Mr. Miller backed Joe Biden in 2020. Today, he says, he’s hoping to prevent another Trump term: “I prayed every night that [Kamala Harris] would take care of it.”

Philip Smith, a finance professional and lifelong Republican, voted for Nikki Haley in the primaries, but chose Kamala Harris and Tim Walz today. He doesn’t believe Donald Trump’s widespread false rumors of fake news.

“I’m tired of the divisiveness,” Mr. Smith explained. “I’m hoping for more moderation on both sides so that we can turn back to getting things done in this country.”

Frederick Neinas, a retired physician, renounced his Republican affiliation years ago over what he saw as dramatic changes within the party. Having previously supported candidates like Mitt Romney in 2012 and Hillary Clinton in 2016, Mr. Neinas expressed concern about democracy’s fragility following Jan. 6. “Democracy is fragile. It’s important to vote for the right person, not for us, but for our grandchildren,” he cautioned.

– Troy Sambajon, staff writer, reporting from Laconia, New Hampshire

12:00 p.m. ET: How one state is protecting its vote, and its voters

Even though I’m reporting in Charlotte, North Carolina, today, I was thinking back to Sunday, when former President Bill Clinton canvassed for the Harris-Walz ticket in my native Augusta, Georgia. Security was understandably tight, and it made me think: What type of protections are being taken on Election Day?

This morning, I had a brief conversation with Richmond County Board of Elections Director Travis Doss about what security looks like, both in terms of the ballot and the folks casting their vote. This interview has been lightly edited for length:

What measures are being taken to secure votes?

Regarding the actual votes, Georgia uses a paper-based system. Voters mark their votes on a tablet and then print out a paper ballot that is then scanned into a tabulator. Neither the vote-marking device nor the scanner are connected to the internet. At the end of the night, the memory cards from each of the scanners are brought to a central tabulation area where the votes are uploaded. All voting machines and scanners are sealed through the voting day.

What about the security of voters?

Regarding physical security, Richmond County has worked with the Richmond County Sheriff’s Office to have our 43 polling locations divided into zones where we have direct contact with the zone captain if we have any issues. Also tonight we will have deputies at polling locations when the polls close to make sure there are not any type of issues while the poll workers complete their close out procedures.

How does security tie-in to election integrity?

As far as election security and integrity, everything that we do is open to the public to view and witness. We use multiple chain of custody forms, and all voting equipment has multiple seals that are verified before, during, and after the voting process. There are multiple checks and balances in place to include verifying the number of people who voted is equal to the number of ballots scanned. All voters must present one of six forms of required photo ID. Georgia takes voting security and integrity very seriously.

– Ken Makin, special contributor

11:30 a.m. ET: What are the big issues on states’ ballots?

Not to be forgotten this Election Day is that a number of states are voting on some pretty important ballot initiatives. Not only will we likely know the results of these votes quickly – unlike other important races being voted on today – but they will also tell us a lot about how a majority of the country feels on divisive issues like drug legalization, the minimum wage, and abortion rights.

Here’s a quick rundown of which states are voting on what issues:

Abortion

Since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, the U.S. Constitution no longer protects a right to abortion. That does not prevent state constitutions from doing so, however, and 10 states are voting today to enshrine in their constitutions a right to abortion. The states are: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New York, and South Dakota.

More than perhaps any other issue, abortion-related ballot measures have the potential to drive voter turnout in a decisive direction today.

Drug legalization

Four states are voting on legalizing marijuana: Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Florida. In Massachusetts, meanwhile, voters are deciding on legalizing psychedelics.

As of April 2024, recreational use of marijuana is legal in 24 states and Washington, D.C., according to the Pew Research Center. Fourteen states have legalized marijuana for medical use only. Marijuana use is still illegal under federal law.

Psychedelics are legalized in Oregon and Colorado and considered the “lowest law enforcement priority” in major cities like Seattle, Denver, Minneapolis, and Portland, Maine, according to Psychedelic Alpha, an independent newsletter focusing on psychedelic medicine.

Citizenship voting

Illegal immigration has been top-of-mind for voters this year, and Republicans nationwide have been pushing for citizenship requirements to vote.

You must be a U.S. citizen to vote in federal elections, but you generally aren’t required to show proof of your citizenship when you vote. Today, eight states – Iowa, Idaho, Kentucky, Missouri, Oklahoma, South Carolina, and Wisconsin – are voting on whether or not to adopt that requirement.

Instances of unauthorized immigrants voting are “so rare as to be statistically nonexistent,” Aaron Reichlin-Melnick, senior fellow at the American Immigration Council, told my colleagues in September.

Minimum wage

Three states are voting to increase their minimum wage in Alaska, California, and Missouri. Massachusetts voters are considering whether to raise the wage for tipped workers to the state minimum. Meanwhile, in Arizona, voters are considering a ballot measure that would decrease the minimum wage for tipped workers.

– Henry Gass, staff writer, reporting from Austin, Texas

10:35 a.m. ET: Trying to get to the pivotal swing state of Michigan

I’m in Toronto heading to the battleground state of Michigan. My flight to Detroit was outrageously priced, and much more expensive than Monday or Wednesday flights, so I thought maybe I’d find a plane (and airport) full of Americans heading home to vote. So far, I am finding a microcosm of the American electorate, and of the globe, watching this historic race.

There is Dean Craver, a barber from central Florida, who voted early and for the first time at age 32. A dual Canadian-American citizen, he registered as a Republican right after the first assassination attempt on Mr. Trump. “This is the first time I’ve felt like I had to vote,” he says. “Trump is a leader who stands up for Americans.”

There is Mark Goodwin, from California, who voted for Harris two weeks ago. “It’s a vote for sanity and stability,” says the retired technology worker and registered Democrat.

Then there is the registered Republican, a retired military medic, who is heading to Washington, D.C., today so that he can vote – against Trump because, he says, “it’s been put in sharp relief how unqualified he is to be a leader.”

Ahmed Musa, heading back to Minneapolis, says he has always voted Democrat. Originally from Somalia, his favorite president of all time was Bill Clinton. But this year he’s not voting at all. “It’s all the same, same, same,” he says.

When I asked in a packed elevator if anyone was American heading to the polls, one man answered: “No, we are Canadians, praying.”

– Sara Llana, staff writer, reporting from Toronto shortly before her plane finally boarded

10:15 a.m. ET: In Georgia, a question: Will young men show up at the polls?

Polls are now open across much of the country, and Monitor reporters have been watching the sun rise from polling sites in the battleground states likely to decide this election.

In Georgia, Patrik Jonsson is en route to rural Baldwin County. In 2020, President Joe Biden became just the second Democrat to win the state in 40 years. While predominantly African American, the county is far from deep blue. It elected President Joe Biden in 2020 and Sen. Raphael Warnock in 2022 – both Democrats – but in 2018 Republican Gov. Brian Kemp lost the area by 0.3%.

If former President Donald Trump is going to take Georgia back, he will probably have to carry Baldwin County, as well as the booming Atlanta suburbs, where Patrik will be heading later today. Law and order are a big priority for voters there, and Patrik says he’s going to be looking for how many young men turn out.

With young voters starkly divided by gender this election, Mr. Trump put an added focus on that demographic in the closing stages of the campaign. He will be hoping a late endorsement from Joe Rogan – host of the most listened-to podcast on Spotify – will give him an Election Day bump. As Patrik says: “I know women are going to show up. I know the older guys are going to show up. Are the 20 year-olds?”

– Henry Gass, staff writer

9:45 a.m. ET: Voting is underway in Arizona

Good morning from the Southwest. Voter centers opened at 6 a.m. local time in Arizona’s Maricopa County, one of the most populous counties in the country. The more than 2.5 million registered voters here make up over half of this swing state’s voter base.

Maricopa became a hotbed for discredited election conspiracies in 2020. Election officials have since shored up security, transparency, and new equipment. They’re also appealing to voters for patience, saying factors like a longer than usual two-page ballot and a new change in state law on election tasks are expected to cause delays.

“We ask you to be patient,” said Zach Schira, assistant county manager for elections and external affairs, at a Monday press conference. “Let us do our job, and we will be transparent about what we have done and what we have left to do.”

Meanwhile, Stephen Richer, the county recorder, is bracing for post-election litigation, given ongoing scrutiny of the battleground state.

Joe Biden won Arizona in 2020, the first Democrat to do so since 1996. Yet President Biden clinched victory by less than 1 percentage point – 10,457 votes. Beyond the White House race, Arizonans will also get to vote their conscience on abortion access and illegal immigration.

– Sarah Matusek, staff writer, reporting from Tempe, Arizona

08:30 a.m. ET: Is political polling broken?

It’s Election Day, and public polls show the presidential race is a dead heat. That’s true nationally and in the key battleground states.

In fact, polling experts say, this is shaping up to be one of the closest presidential contests in American history.

Or is it? After all, the pollsters got 2016 wrong. And they were off by even more in 2020 – underestimating the strength of Donald Trump both times. This cycle, the polling industry has made important changes in how it operates.

To get people to respond, and to get a better sample, surveys are increasingly done by text and mail – yes, snail mail – in addition to phone, according to polling expert Nate Cohn of The New York Times.

Pollsters have also changed how they “weight” their data. That is, after getting their sample, they have a better idea of how to analyze what voters have told them, based on demographics, past voting behavior, and 2020 turnout. This excellent article by Mr. Cohn lays out how pollsters have adapted.

Public confidence in polling took a major hit after 2016 and 2020. That matters, because it affects trust in election results – and in government.

“Independent public polling has a critical role to play in a democratic society,” write experts from the nonpartisan Pew Research Center.

Even if pollsters can’t tell us who will win an election, they can provide a sense of what Americans are thinking.

When the six residents of Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, cast the first votes of Election Day just after midnight, it was tied 3-3, between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump. Though not predictive, that result perfectly captures voter sentiment in 2024.

– Linda Feldmann, staff writer, reporting from Washington

08:15 a.m. ET: Georgia election worker arrested for fake bomb threat

Federal law enforcement arrested a 20-something Georgia poll worker on Monday for making a bomb threat against a polling place. The false threat comes amid heightened tensions and unprecedented security preparations at polling places around the United States on Election Day 2024.

After allegedly getting into a verbal altercation with a voter, on Oct. 16 Nicholas Wimbish of Milledgeville wrote a letter referencing threats at the polls by “young men” – a key constituency for Donald Trump’s reelection effort. “PS boom toy in early vote place, cigar burning, be safe,” a hand-scrawled ending to the letter noted.

The Election Threats Taskforce, which was initiated by the Department of Justice in 2021 to protect poll workers, arrested Mr. Wimbish Monday. He could face up to 25 years in prison if found guilty on several charges related to the letter.

– Patrik Jonsson, staff writer, reporting from Atlanta

08:10 a.m. ET: Which bellwether House districts should you keep an eye on?

Between the two of them, California and New York have more than enough swing congressional districts to determine which party will control the U.S. House of Representatives. But don’t look to either state for early clues. New York polls close relatively late, at 9 p.m. And because of the heavy volume of mail-in balloting in California, it might take days or even weeks to call the winners in the Golden State’s tight races. In 2022, the Associated Press didn’t call the last race there until Dec. 2.

For an early barometer, watch Virginia, where polls close at 7 p.m. and counting is “pretty fast,” suggests Jacob Smith, assistant professor of political science at Fordham University in New York. “Virginia’s second district is a really interesting one I see that goes back and forth,” he says – switching between parties five times since 2000. This suburban district is near the country’s largest Naval station, and two women with naval backgrounds are battling it out. Democrat Missy Cotter Smasal, who is leaning into reproductive rights, is challenging GOP Rep. Jennifer Kiggins, a freshman Republican who is running on kitchen-table issues.

Also keep an eye on VA-7, the open seat vacated by Democrat Abigail Spanberger, who is running for governor. The seat is rated as a “toss up” by the independent Cook Political Report.

– Francine Kiefer, staff writer, reporting from Pasadena, California

08:00 a.m. ET: What we can glean from 2024 early voting

In a campaign marked by high interest – and anxiety – millions of Americans cast their ballots before Election Day. When the polls opened Tuesday morning, almost 83 million people had already voted, either in-person or by mail or via drop-box. That’s more than half the 158.4 million people who voted in 2020.

The all-time record for early voting was in 2020, during the pandemic, when 101 million people voted early. But this year’s early vote is still noteworthy. In states that register voters by party, Republicans accounted for 36% of the votes cast while Democrats accounted for 38%, according to the University of Florida Election Lab.

That doesn’t necessarily indicate which candidate those people voted for. But it might be good news for former President Donald Trump. In 2020, only 30% of early voters were Republican, compared with 45% who were Democrats – though that year Mr. Trump had discouraged Republicans from voting early.

This year’s early vote also features a gender gap. In the states that report gender data for votes cast, 54% of early votes have been by women versus 44% by men. That may be good news for the Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, who fares far better in polls among women than among men.

The final NBC News poll of the race found that women supported Vice President Harris over Mr. Trump by a 16-point margin, 57-41%. Men backed Mr. Trump by 18 percentage points (58-40%).

The massive gender gap may in part reflect this cycle’s focus on abortion rights, following the 2022 overturning of Roe v. Wade. Another factor could be the Trump campaign’s emphasis on hypermasculinity in its pitch to voters.

– Linda Feldmann, staff writer, reporting from Washington