Why Latino voters shifted Republican to help elect Donald Trump

Former President Donald Trump’s resounding victory appears buoyed by a key constituency – Latino voters – whose economic concerns may have outweighed his harsh rhetoric surrounding immigration.

As of Wednesday afternoon, an NBC News exit poll suggests 46% of Latino voters went Republican in this election, and that share was even greater (55%) among Latino men. Those percentages significantly exceed Mr. Trump’s performance in the 2020 election, when the same exit poll estimated Republican support from 32% of Latino voters and 36% of Latino men.

Experts caution against reading too much into exit polls, which may be skewed given the large share of citizens voting early or by mail ballot. On top of that, Latinos are not a monolithic voting bloc, says John Tuman, executive associate dean in liberal arts and political science professor at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas. Their views can differ based on everything from ancestry and country of origin to religion and housing situations.

And even with gains among Latino voters, Republican victories are largely the result of overwhelming support among white voters. Fifty-seven percent of white voters, who make up the bulk of the electorate, cast ballots favoring the GOP, according to the NBC News exit poll.

Still, the big question now is what motivated the apparent surge of Republican support from Latino voters, who by some estimates could make up nearly 15% of the U.S. electorate this year. In certain battleground states, that percentage is even higher. Latinos were expected to represent a quarter of Arizona voters. In Nevada, they make up about 1 in every 5 voters.

“For many different demographic groups, including Latinos, inflation was just really a big driving factor,” says Dr. Tuman, who has researched Latino voters. “[It was] very hard for Biden and then Harris, who took over as a candidate very late in the campaign, to push back against that narrative.”

The economy is critical, but there are other factors, too

Eighty-five percent of Latino voters cited the economy as “very important” in the presidential election, topping all other issues, according to a Pew Research Center survey released in September.

Outside a Phoenix vote center Tuesday, an “I Voted” sticker is affixed to the brim of Sebastian Mario’s baseball cap. The first-time voter – and Mexican-born American – chose Mr. Trump on the economy.

“Now that I’m an adult, and I’ve got to pay my own bills, I feel like it’s really hard on people’s pockets,” said the 20-something plumber.

“I actually didn’t like Trump,” he clarified. However, “I like his plan better.”

Mr. Mario thought to himself as he voted: “Don’t make me regret this.”

Jesus Marquez, a conservative strategist with the American Christian Caucus, agrees that economic concerns propelled more Latino voters toward Mr. Trump and Republicans, a trend afoot for several election cycles now. But he contends it’s more than that.

Mr. Marquez says many Latino voters want stronger border security and greater parental rights, among other issues. Mr. Trump, he says, is the candidate who delivered that message in an unwavering fashion. On the Democratic side, Ms. Harris devoted a lot of time and messaging to reproductive rights, which Mr. Marquez says didn’t necessarily have the same tug as other policy concerns among Latino voters.

“There’s a lot of women who support abortion up until a certain stage, but they care more for other things,” he says. “They care more for providing for the family, for food, for the economy, and for security.”

Complex views about Trump’s rhetoric

Democrats, however, hoped Mr. Trump’s incendiary language about illegal immigration and plans for mass deportations would pull voters to their side. Vice President Kamala Harris routinely condemned such rhetoric, including that immigrants are “poisoning the blood of our country.” And in the waning days of the campaign, a comedian at Mr. Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage.”

For some, that language did make a difference. Joshua Berrios, a Puerto Rican from Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, was an undecided voter for much of the election, until he saw a clip of comedian Tony Hinchcliffe’s performance at Mr. Trump’s rally. He cast his vote for Ms. Harris.

The rhetoric wasn’t enough to move the needle for other voters, though.

In Aurora, Colorado, Denisse Schaffino was also drawn to Mr. Trump on the economy. The Mexican-born Republican lost her job in the mortgage industry in 2022 as interest rates began to climb. But she’s also seen how her city has grappled with an influx of new South American immigrants – including suspects of crimes who officials have linked to a Venezuelan gang.

“I don’t believe in just coming and then trying to get everything for free,” she said in line at a Trump rally last month. Hardworking Americans, meanwhile, “don’t get any of that help.”

In Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, longtime Democrat Evelyn Agosto voted for Joe Biden in 2020. But during the pandemic, vaccine mandates drove her away from the party and she changed her affiliation to Republican. On Tuesday, she voted for Mr. Trump.

Ms. Agosto, born in Puerto Rico, found the mockery of her native island at the recent Trump rally in Madison Square Garden distasteful, but it didn’t lead her to reconsider her vote.

“I wouldn’t vote for the other party just because [the comedian] messed up,” Ms. Agosto said. “I’m sticking with my beliefs.”

Staff writers Caitlin Babcock and Sophie Hills contributed reporting from Bethlehem, Pennsylvania.