California backlash hands defeat to progressive criminal justice reform

True-blue California predictably delivered its 54 electoral votes to Vice President Kamala Harris this week. But farther down the ballot, Democratic voters struck a blow at a key progressive policy – and candidates – aimed at criminal justice reform.

The results are in step with national polls that show Americans – both Democrats and Republicans – increasingly concerned about crime, despite an overall drop in violent and property crimes since the 1990s. (Even surges during the COVID-19 pandemic did not see the overall rate reach levels of 25 years ago.)

Crime in particular is a local issue, says Mark Baldassare, survey director for the nonpartisan Public Policy Institute of California. Regardless of statistics, what matters most to voters is how they feel about safety at home.

“With issues of crime,” he explains, “what’s important is perceptions. And we had been seeing in our polling that people were showing less confidence in their police and more concern about local crime leading up to this proposition.”

Violent crime down nationally, but public perception varies

California’s crime numbers are relatively high. Violent crimes, which have gone up and down over time, remain 15% higher than in 2019. Homicides involving guns are nearly 20% higher than pre-pandemic levels. Property crimes went down in most counties last year, but up in some of the largest, including Los Angeles.

In response, California voters brought back felony prosecutions for some drug and theft crimes, and in Los Angeles, replaced Democratic District Attorney George Gascón with a former Republican who ran as an independent. Voters in San Francisco held on to a replacement for the progressive district attorney they recalled in 2022. And voters in Alameda County supported the recall of DA Pamela Price, a criminal justice reform advocate; in Oakland, where the count was not finished Thursday morning, the recall of justice reformer Mayor Sheng Thao looked to be winning in early results.

Mr. Gascón served as San Francisco’s DA before taking up the Los Angeles post in 2020 – amid the COVID-19 pandemic – winning with a platform that offered progressive criminal justice reforms like reduced penalties for low-level crimes in the state’s most populous county.

His loss to federal prosecutor Nathan Hochman (who lost two years ago as a Republican candidate for state attorney general) marks a notable shift toward more conservative policies. Mr. Hochman’s campaign promised sentence enhancements for violent criminals, a close working relationship with law enforcement, and accountability for crimes like shoplifting, which more than doubled under Mr. Gascón’s tenure.

With state Proposition 36, voters rolled back some progressive policies they’d voted for 10 years ago after a U.S. Supreme Court order mandated that the state thin out its overcrowded prisons and reduce its outsized share of racial- or ethnic-minority inmates. The prison population dropped nearly 23% between 2014 and 2023, but California continues to house disproportionately large Latino (46%) and Black (28%) populations, as a share of the total.

The new law allows felony charges for thefts under $950 if the offender has at least two previous theft or drug convictions. It replies to a wave of “smash-and-grab” retail crimes that swept through the country during the pandemic.

Rebecca McDonald says she’s seen crime go up firsthand at the salon she owns in LA’s Echo Park, where she also finds people openly using illicit drugs. The self-described feminist and independent voter skipped the presidential race on the ballot – she didn’t like either candidate enough to vote for one, she said.

But her top two reasons for coming out to the polls were to vote Mr. Gascón out, and – like 70% of California voters – support harsher criminal penalties.

“I’ve had LAPD officers tell me that there’s nothing they can do if someone steals something out of my shop that’s valued at less than $950,” she says. “That’s not OK. Crime is crime, right? People shooting heroin in front of my shop, I’m not OK with that.”

Tougher stance on criminal justice is proof blue voters aren’t monolithic

But the crime votes don’t necessarily indicate a larger political shift, says Dr. Baldassare. Prop. 36 had widespread, bipartisan support. Other ballot measure results offer a mixed bag: Californians voted to amend the state constitution to protect the right to same-sex marriage; and they funded public schools and policies that protect the environment. But they voted against raising the state minimum wage, and against statewide rent controls. And voters declined to eliminate an exception to the constitutional slavery ban that allows unpaid prison labor.

The variances among Democratic voters are proof that the Californians, although liberal, are not monolithic. Despite a supermajority of Democrats holding state offices, “we still have a great deal of plural thinking,” says Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, a Democratic candidate for governor in 2026.