US, China face test of whether ‘managed rivalry’ is possible

If they were dating, it would be called ghosting. And all those unanswered calls, texts, and emails might be cause for a shrug of the shoulders, a wry smile, and an acceptance that it’s time to move on.

But Joe Biden and Xi Jinping lead the world’s two major rival powers and by far the two largest economies.

So China’s rebuff of recent U.S. efforts to arrange a phone call between the leaders is more than a dating mishap. And it comes at a critical juncture in defining how the world’s single most important geopolitical relationship will look in the years ahead.

With attitudes hardening on both sides – from trade and tariffs to the future of the island democracy of Taiwan, which China has pledged to “reunify” with the mainland – the U.S. hope is not only to avoid a kind of diplomatic doom loop.

It is to find a way for both countries to agree on basic rules of the road – key among them, regular high-level communication – to keep their growing rivalry from leading to unnecessary, even unintended, conflict.

The longer-term hope, though it’s been looking increasingly elusive of late, is for America and China to find ways to cooperate on issues of worldwide concern: climate change, for instance, or debt relief for developing countries.

The good news is that Mr. Biden and Mr. Xi will talk, if not in the coming days, then surely before they’re next due to meet face-to-face at the G-20 summit in India this autumn.

Yet how soon that happens, and what they say to each other, could go a long way toward determining whether a more managed rivalry proves achievable.

Sharply divergent outlooks

Public signals from both sides have underscored the profoundly different ways in which the United States and China view the current tensions and the way forward.

In a major policy speech last month, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen laid out Washington’s concerns about China’s retreat from free-market reforms at home and China’s “confrontational posture” toward America and its allies “in the Indo-Pacific, [and] other regions.” That, she said, explained Washington’s determination to press for fairer trade, as well as its recent moves to restrict the sale to China of high-tech components with potential military applications.

But she dismissed talk of a full-scale economic “decoupling.” With U.S.-China trade totaling some $700 billion, that would be “disastrous” for both countries and “destabilizing” internationally. She added that U.S. policy was not aimed at preventing China from prospering: “A growing China that plays by the rules” would benefit China itself, America, and the world.

And she stressed the “essential” importance of communication.

But from China, the message has been diametrically different.

“Encirclement and suppression”

Mr. Xi told his rubber-stamp legislature in March that “Western countries, led by the U.S., are implementing all-round containment, encirclement, and suppression against us.”

In the weeks since, not only has he spurned suggestions of a phone call with Mr. Biden. He has welcomed a stream of European leaders – from Italy, Germany, France, and the European Union – for talks in Beijing. China clearly sees a twin benefit: cold-shouldering the Biden administration while reinforcing ties with America’s European allies.

There’s a measure of domestic political signaling on both sides of the standoff.

But that’s one reason the coming weeks could prove so important.

Mr. Xi, recently elected to a third term, has more power than any leader since Mao Zedong. He has built his ascent on a narrative of a “Chinese century” in which his country will displace America’s post-World War II dominance in world affairs. The appearance of compromise and conciliation with Washington could risk seeming like a retreat.

Mr. Biden’s toughened policy toward Beijing has enjoyed something almost unheard of in today’s Washington: bipartisan backing. But as the 2024 election comes closer, efforts to find common ground with China could invite Republican accusations of weakness.

Adding to the sense of urgency is the delicate juncture of current relations.

Barely five months ago, the two leaders did meet, at last November’s G-20 summit in Bali. And both leaders committed themselves to an effort to improve relations, starting with a visit by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Beijing.

But hours before he was due to set off, the U.S. identified a Chinese surveillance balloon over the Midwest, postponing the trip and eventually shooting down the balloon. The lack of communication between the countries’ military was seen as a barrier to prospects of deescalating the incident before it got to that stage.

Since then, the Beijing visit – like the proposed call between Mr. Biden and Mr. Xi – has been on hold.

Mr. Blinken said this week efforts are continuing to reschedule it, and President Biden’s climate envoy, John Kerry, cited “near-term” plans to resume the countries’ climate-change talks.

They, like Mr. Biden, see such steps as critical not only for U.S.-China ties, but also as a steadying factor in an increasingly unstable world. That was a point Ms. Yellen made by quoting President Biden’s view that both major powers “share a responsibility ... to prevent competition from becoming anything ever near conflict.”

And that’s especially true, she made clear, because America and China aren’t just dating. With “decoupling” not realistically on the agenda, they’re fated, in some sense, to remain partners.

In other words, if nothing else, they have to think of the kids.