Putin rebounds at home, but global ambitions stymied

It is a tale of two crashes, with a sobering message for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Which is that while Mr. Putin has reinforced his power at home in recent weeks, the grand geopolitical ambition that inspired his invasion of Ukraine – reasserting Russia’s Soviet-era status as a great world power – is looking increasingly threadbare.

Of the two Russian craft that went down this month, the one signaling the Russian president’s robust authority at home made the bigger headlines worldwide: the plane carrying Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner Group militia leader who had mutinied against Mr. Putin’s military chiefs last June, which crashed near Moscow.

In the wake of that crash, which Western intelligence analysts attributed to a bomb, Mr. Putin issued a decree requiring all militia fighters to swear allegiance to the Russian state.

Yet the other disaster underscored a longer-term challenge to the Russian president’s global aspirations – exacerbated by his failure to achieve the short, sharp victory he clearly expected when he sent his invasion forces into Ukraine 18 months ago.

That crash occurred 240,000 miles away, on the moon.

It involved an uncrewed vehicle dubbed Luna-25, launched from Russia’s Far East. Russian space engineers lost control of it two weeks ago as it descended toward the moon’s surface.

They had hoped it would land near the moon’s south pole, where scientists have detected signs of ice. Water and its constituents, hydrogen and oxygen, could permit an extended human presence on the moon, and facilitate fuel production for interplanetary exploration.

But for Mr. Putin, the launch was also intended as a geopolitical statement.

It was his country’s first lunar mission since 1976, and after a Cold War space race in which the Soviet Union had notched up spectacular triumphs – notably the world’s first crewed orbital flight, in 1961, by Yuri Gagarin.

Had this month’s lunar mission succeeded, Russia would have become the first nation to achieve a soft landing at the moon’s south pole.

Instead, according to a terse official statement, Luna-25 “moved into an unpredictable orbit and ceased to exist as a result of a collision with the surface of the moon.”

In the days afterward, Mr. Putin was confronted with reminders of how much more complicated his bid for Russian great-power influence has become amid his war against Ukraine.

First, another rising world power – India – succeeded where Russia had failed. It landed its own uncrewed craft at the moon’s south pole.

Amid worldwide messages of congratulation, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi basked in the plaudits of fellow members of the BRICS economic alliance – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – at their summit in Johannesburg.

If there was a consolation for Mr. Putin, it was that he wasn’t there.

But the reason for his absence served only to bring home his – and his country’s – shrinking geopolitical horizons in the face of Western diplomatic and economic sanctions.

Had he gone, South Africa, as a member of the International Criminal Court, would have been obliged to arrest Mr. Putin on ICC charges of deporting Ukrainian children to Russia during the war.

This week, the Kremlin announced Mr. Putin would also skip the G20 summit in India Sept. 9.

While Mr. Putin’s decision not to travel may have been prompted by more substantial motives than reluctance to chat with Mr. Modi about moon landings, the importance that Mr. Putin attaches to space triumphs as a reflection of Russia’s place in the world is not in doubt.

He has regularly praised Mr. Gagarin’s exploits, only recently announcing a national “space achievement” award in his name. And on the 60th anniversary of the Gagarin flight, he declared that “Russia must maintain its status as one of the leading nuclear and space powers, because the space sector is directly linked to defense.”

Nor can the more fundamental contrast with India have escaped him. Russia is a larger country, with far greater reserves of oil, gas, and other resources. But India’s economy is nearly twice as big – with a much more vibrant high-tech sector, a major boost to its space program.

And India, unlike Mr. Putin’s increasingly sanctioned nation, has ready access to the array of microchips, instrumentation, and other equipment essential to space flight.

After the Luna-25 crash, the head of Russia’s space agency insisted on the need to push ahead with the program. Echoing Mr. Putin’s views, he said, “This is not just about the prestige of the country and the achievement of geopolitical goals. It is about ensuring defensive capabilities and achieving technological sovereignty.”

But he also seemed to imply limits to what Russia could achieve on its own, emphasizing plans for a joint mission with China.

The logic is clear: China, especially since the Ukraine invasion, has become Russia’s main, indispensable ally.

But while Russia has been on the moon exploration sidelines for nearly five decades, China has been mounting increasingly complex missions in recent years. It is planning a crewed flight by 2030.

So although cooperation with China in space does make sense for Russia, it will come at a price.

The former superpower will be the junior partner.