As neighboring countries fall to coups, Senegal keeps its democracy alive

Something extraordinary happened last Sunday in a small nation on the west coast of Africa, at a time when strongman regimes and outright autocracies are on the rise around the globe.

Democracy held. Democracy prevailed.

And while the outcome of the presidential election in Senegal did not draw broad global media attention outside Africa, its implications – and potential lessons – matter more widely.

So, too, will what comes next, as the new president-elect confronts a daunting challenge: to demonstrate that democracy works, that democracy can deliver.

For Senegal is no ordinary African country, and this was no ordinary election.

Senegal is one of the minority of African states with an uninterrupted record of voting its leaders in, and out, without men in uniform seizing power. The country has done so since it won its independence from France in 1960. 

Over the past five years, Senegalese people have watched as one nearby government after another – in a band of territory stretching right across Africa – has been toppled by soldiers, some of whom then turned to Russian forces to keep them in power.

And Senegal’s own democracy seemed in peril in the months leading up to the election.

President Macky Sall, elected in 2012 and serving the second of his permitted terms, had become increasingly authoritarian, cracking down on, and imprisoning, opponents and journalists.

He was hinting he might seek a third term. Last June, his main rival, Ousmane Sonko, was arrested, igniting demonstrations in which a number of protesters were killed.

Mr. Sall did then declare that he would step down after the election – originally set for Feb. 25.

But in early February, hours before campaigning was due to start, he announced he was delaying the vote.

All of which made Sunday’s outcome especially remarkable.

The delay turned out to last only a month.

Though Mr. Sonko was barred from running, he designated a close ally, Bassirou Diomaye Faye, to do so in his place.

With 19 candidates contesting the election, pundits expected none to secure the 50% needed to win outright and predicted that Mr. Faye would face a runoff against President Sall’s protégé, former Prime Minister Amadou Ba.

But on election day, early returns made it clear that Mr. Faye was on track to win comfortably.

Within hours, Mr. Ba conceded. So did President Sall. “I congratulate the winner,” he declared. “It is a victory for Senegalese democracy.”

So it was, but not just because millions of Senegalese wanted change and – joining the long, orderly lines at polling stations – made their voices count.

Equally important were two political bedrocks: a democratic culture built over the years since independence, and the institutional foundation of democracy – an independent judiciary.

Senegal’s highest court, the Constitutional Council, stepped in after Mr. Sall postponed the vote. It ruled that he lacked the authority to do so, and ordered the election to be held as soon as possible.

Still, if Senegal has provided an example of how democracies can hold firm and survive, the country’s next president now faces a test with yet wider international implications.

That’s because even in some well-established democracies, such as the United States, the culture of democracy, and trust in its institutions, is being eroded by angry, partisan divisions.

And while international surveys still find that people overwhelmingly prefer democratic government, this seems to be becoming less true of younger people.

The reason? Waning faith in democracy’s ability to get things done and to make lives better.

That’s certainly true in Africa, a challenge made more pressing by the fact that some 40% of the continent’s population is under the age of 15.

In Senegal, young voters were key to Mr. Faye’s victory.

Now, his task is to meet their expectations.

In contrast to Mr. Sall, who presided over a series of giant infrastructure projects, Mr. Faye is likely to focus on the everyday economy, keeping consumer prices down, providing more and better jobs, and improving health and social provision.

A former career civil servant, he would seem well suited to handling that agenda.

He will also start with a major advantage. An offshore natural gas project, due to begin exporting to Germany this year, should give Senegal’s gross domestic product a major boost, the International Monetary Fund has forecast.

Yet he and Mr. Sonko also built their support on a populist political message, suggesting they would renegotiate the terms of the gas agreement, for instance, and move away from the CFA franc, which Senegal uses as its national currency.

Such moves could delay the gas export project, or, more generally, dent international business confidence in Senegal’s economy.

Whichever policy balance he chooses, Mr. Faye’s main concern will be to restore, and sustain, popular confidence in a democratic government’s ability to deliver results.

And the stakes are high, as experiences in Senegal’s military-ruled neighbors have made clear.

Many citizens there initially accepted the coups – and even supported them – apparently figuring that the men with guns would at least get things done.

A United Nations survey last year did find that 11% of citizens under military rule in Africa still preferred “non-democratic” rule.

But for the other 89% – unlike for the Senegalese – the choice is no longer theirs.