A Guatemalan judge’s flight into exile signals trouble for US

One of Guatemala’s most important judges, Erika Aifán, fled the country this month, saying she feared for her life. Her departure was not only a blow to Guatemala’s judicial independence, but it also signaled the shrinking influence of U.S. diplomacy in Central America.

Ms. Aifán sat on Guatemala’s high-risk court, and became at least the 15th high-profile judge or prosecutor to flee the country in less than a year. For more than a decade, Guatemala had been held up as the regional example of how to investigate high-level corruption; the rapid departure of so many independent members of the judiciary underscores the nation’s drastic about-face on fighting impunity.

Biden administration officials had repeatedly praised Ms. Aifán as an example of leadership. Yet, “that support did not have the impact [the U.S.] had hoped,” she told The Washington Post last week after announcing that she was afraid to return home because she risked being detained, despite a two-decade-long career in the justice system.

As Central America backslides from democracy, it is not just the unraveling of Guatemala’s judiciary that is raising questions about the strength of Washington’s regional sway. The region as a whole has become “a testing ground for authoritarian leaders,” says Renzo Rosal, a political analyst in Guatemala City.

In Nicaragua, President Daniel Ortega’s Sandinista government has become a byword for overt power grabs and human rights abuses. El Salvador’s president, Nayib Bukele, has cracked down on civil liberties, suspending them for 30 days last weekend when he declared a state of emergency to combat gang violence, a tool he also used during the pandemic. And in Honduras, the last president’s party jerry-rigged the constitution so that he could run for, and win, a questionable second term in office.

The Biden administration has sought to tackle migration from Central America through its Root Cause strategy, meant to reduce economic inequality, strengthen anti-corruption initiatives, promote human rights, and prevent organized crime, addressing the underlying issues that drive many Central Americans to leave home.

But while U.S. officials “put out their message or express their disappointment,” says Mr. Rosal, “they don’t follow it up. There’s no real consequence, no teeth” to Washington’s warnings, he says.

Central America poses a complex challenge, says Christine Wade, an expert on the region at Washington College, in Chesterton, Maryland. “U.S. policy in Central America has often wavered between two poles – interventionism and benign neglect. We’re either invading or ignoring,” she says.

“In the post-Cold War era, the U.S. has really struggled to figure out what a constructive U.S. policy would look like in the region.”

“The U.S. can do a lot more”

Ms. Aifán spent the past six years as the head of a high-stakes court specialized in investigating complex criminal cases. She has tried prominent businesspeople, judges, and politicians on charges of corruption and money laundering, cases that have earned her enemies and death threats.

Washington showed its backing for judges and prosecutors like Ms. Aifán in recent years, protesting moves by the Guatemalan Congress and the attorney general, Consuelo Porras, to block corruption investigations, remove independent judges, and pack the Constitutional Court. The U.S. ambassador attended a hearing in a case against Ms. Aifán to demonstrate his support.

But “the sense is the U.S. can do a lot more,” says Maureen Meyer, vice president for programs at the Washington Office on Latin America and author of a recent report analyzing President Joe Biden’s policies in Latin America after one year in office.

Sanctions against Guatemalan politicians could be expanded to target other key players, such as businesspeople, she suggests.

Corrie Welch, advocacy director for the Guatemala Human Rights Commission, says the U.S. should consider cutting its investment aid in light of multiple arrests of prosecutors and a recent law restricting the work of nongovernmental organizations. Ms. Welch also proposes that Washington might oppose International Monetary Fund loans to the Guatemalan government, or even seek Guatemala’s suspension from the Central American Free Trade Agreement. 

Last summer the U.S. Department of Justice launched an anti-corruption task force, and later a tip line, in a bid to identify Central American crimes involving U.S. connections that would give U.S. courts jurisdiction. As the program nears its first anniversary, observers are waiting to see if it has yielded any cases. 

The Biden administration has already cut aid from institutions that obstruct its efforts to strengthen independent judiciaries. Last May, when the Salvadoran Congress voted to sack the attorney general and five Supreme Court judges, USAID diverted aid from the Congress, the police, and another government body, and gave it instead to civil society organizations working on transparency and fighting corruption. Activists say this move should be replicated elsewhere in the region.

How high a U.S. priority?

But Washington’s efforts have not had much visible impact, yet.

In Nicaragua, President Ortega has consolidated his autocratic grip over the country since jailing seven of his rivals for the presidency last year. Honduras’ political crisis, violence, and international criminal links have only become worse since a 2009 coup that the U.S. did little to decry. In El Salvador, Mr. Bukele is using his online savvy to publicly troll the U.S., nixing any chance of back-channel diplomatic talks as he chips away at the few remaining checks on his power. And Guatemala’s internationally backed anti-corruption investigation unit collapsed in 2019, without eliciting a strong response from Washington.

“Because the U.S. failed to push back when these institutions were under threat, that opened a door for them to be dismantled,” says Ms. Meyer. “It’s harder to put something back together than to work to sustain it.”

The halfheartedness of Washington’s efforts to make its influence felt may be explained by Central America’s low ranking in the table of U.S. security threats. “What we know about U.S. policy in Latin America is that other crises preoccupy the U.S. and the region drops off the radar,” says Dr. Wade.

Certainly, Central Americans suspected of corruption and targeted by U.S. sanctions do not appear to be intimidated, says Mr. Rosal. He says he has seen a shift over the past five years in how Guatemalan elites perceive sanctions.

“It’s almost a joke, people getting placed on the Engel list or Magnitsky” list of sanctioned individuals, he says. “They talk about it as if they’re proud. It shows a really troublesome loss of U.S. influence.”