Argentine politics in flux: Can ‘Kirchnerism’ survive without Kirchner?

When Argentine Vice President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner started her livestream following a high-profile corruption conviction last week, few expected the divisive former president to elicit a united response.

Yet, when espousing her innocence, she announced she would not run again for public office at any level, bringing together Argentines of all political stripes into a state of shock.

Ms. Kirchner and her late husband, Néstor Kirchner, have been mainstays in the Argentine political scene for three decades, creating a movement known as Kirchnerismo out of the ashes of Argentina’s economic collapse in the early 2000s. Part of the broader Peronist movement – a political umbrella group rooted in working-class support that took shape in the 1940s and shifts depending on the era – Kirchnerism has earned adoration from the nation’s poor and left-wing adherents. 

Kirchnerism, as the movement is known in English, is credited with improving the living conditions of millions of Argentines, paying off the country’s debt, and expanding a slew of social rights. But as the economic picture deteriorated in recent years and allegations of corruption surfaced, its broader appeal has waned. 

With her surprising pledge to bow out of politics, including next year’s presidential vote, the question now is what her stepping back will mean for the political movement she has come to define: Is Argentina facing the end of Kirchnerism?

Convicted of fraud

On Dec. 6, a panel of three judges convicted Ms. Kirchner of fraud in a kickbacks scheme that directed hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars for road projects to companies owned by a Kirchner business associate and family friend. The fraud occurred between 2003 and 2015, the years she and her late husband were at the helm of the country, and is estimated to have cost the state $926 million. 

Ms. Kirchner says she’s a victim of political and judicial persecution that aims to silence her brand of politics and the people she represents. She’s expected to appeal.

Kirchnerism earned its place in Argentina’s political canon because it presented a simple yet revolutionary idea: a clear road map for the country. Argentina was ruled by dictators in the 1960s and into the ’80s, followed by difficult years of nascent democracy in which the central aim was stability, not long-term planning. The prosperity of the 1990s, with a plan that pegged Argentina’s currency to the U.S. dollar and sold off state assets, led to economic and political chaos as the country defaulted on its debt in 2001. 

“Néstor and Cristina’s program was so clear in saying that there had to be redistribution of wealth, there had to be state intervention so that the market generates demand,” says Valeria Brusco, a political scientist who has studied Kirchnerism. “Those were new things,” especially for the nation’s youth, who rushed to support the Kirchners. While the movement had its problems and the power couple made mistakes, proposals around expanding workers’ rights and providing subsidies for families, and pensions for people who never had them, have left their mark. 

Last month, at a rally in the provincial capital city of La Plata, thousands of people filled a soccer stadium, singing political songs and chanting “Cristina, president, Cristina, president” while they waited for Ms. Kirchner to speak.

“Everything in due measure, and harmoniously,” Ms. Kirchner told the crowd, quoting Juan Domingo Perón, whose 1940s-era political movement carried on long after his 1974 death.   

Mr. Perón’s alliance with trade unions earned him a loyalty that endured among the working class, and that survived crackdowns by military dictators. The identity attached to being Peronist was passed down in families, much like being part of a resistance, says Ms. Brusco. 

But Peronism has had many ideological faces, shifting from right to left under different leaders, and at times with party members seeing each another as enemies, says Ignacio Labaqui, a political scientist and professor at the Catholic University of Argentina. During the ’90s, under President Carlos Menem, Peronism sidelined the working class for a neoliberal approach to economics. Under the Kirchners, it returned to its populist roots.

The survival of Kirchnerism could depend on its ability to adapt in similar ways, analysts say.

“Historically [Peronism] had a great advantage, which is flexibility and pragmatism, moving a little bit to the left in certain periods, and a little bit to right in others,” says Mr. Labaqui. But by rooting itself strictly in leftist politics and policies, he says, Kirchnerism has been stripped of Peronism’s characteristic flexibility.

Pablo Fuchs, a taxi driver in Buenos Aires, was 10 years old when Mr. Perón took power for a third time in 1973, and calls himself a lifelong Peronist. 

“We were at the bottom of the ocean in 2001,” says Mr. Fuchs. “Kirchnerismo represented spring, something unthinkable, and not just with its discourse, but with facts,” he says. “Even if on an individual level things have not been as good as might justify supporting them, from a collective perspective, for the society,” Kirchnerism is key to Argentina’s future – even if Ms. Kirchner retires.

“Most powerful”

Mr. Labaqui sees a bumpier path ahead for Kirchnerism. For starters, the memory of the Kirchner glory days is starting to look like “sepia-tinged photos in a history book.” 

From 2003 to 2007, under Mr. Kirchner, the Argentine economy grew generously. The growth continued under Ms. Kirchner, until about 2011. But by 2015, voters opted for a right-wing coalition led by President Mauricio Macri. Worsening poverty and growing inflation led to a return of Kirchnerism in 2019 under President Alberto Fernández, who was hand-picked by Ms. Kirchner. But it hasn’t produced the economic recovery many hoped for. 

“The key thing for most voters is the good years, the golden years,” says Mr. Labaqui. Their failure to return, even if some factors, like the pandemic, were out of this administration’s control, has led some loyalists to start looking elsewhere for political hope.

There’s also the issue of no clear succession plan if Ms. Kirchner truly does step down: While the names of some people have been floated, including the Kirchners’ son, Máximo, the brand is still centered on Ms. Kirchner as an individual. 

A shrewd intellectual and political mind with a leadership style that doesn’t shy away from confrontation, Ms. Kirchner has been scrutinized for her manner of speaking, reacting, and dressing. She’s shown little interest in appealing to those who aren’t in tune with her objectives, says Ms. Brusco, who believes Ms. Kirchner’s decision not to seek electoral office next year could actually strengthen her political brand. 

“Today, Cristina is the most powerful” individual in the political movement, says Mr. Labaqui. “That’s a problem for Kirchnerism because it doesn’t have another figure to step in.”

There are factions of Peronists who want to break free of Kirchnerism’s hold on the movement, but support for Ms. Kirchner continues to be strong in the densely populated ring of municipalities around the capital, Buenos Aires, which is a trove of key votes, Mr. Labaqui says. “People have sung the last rites to Kirchnerismo so many times that I’m not really convinced.”

Silvia Saravia, a leader of a social organization that fights for the rights of low-income workers and poor people, sees a new level of competition for Kirchnerism emerging. Her group, Barrios de Pie, provides social assistance in some of the nation’s more impoverished neighborhoods. Even in these supposed strongholds, Ms. Saravia says the light of Kirchnerism is flickering.

“This last conviction has hurt her image,” Ms. Saravia says. “People are in search of options.”

Ms. Kirchner has tried to separate herself from this administration’s record by criticizing certain policies, such as restructuring a $45 billion loan with the International Monetary Fund. But people still consider her at least partly to blame for a seemingly never-ending economic crisis that will see inflation hit nearly 100% this year. 

Ms. Kirchner “has said it many times, ‘We created this thing. We know that we can [sustain it],’” says taxi driver Mr. Fuchs. “Kirchnerismo will not disappear, because it’s a long-term project.”