Sobering moment: Americans reflect on Trump indictment

From workers on the loading docks of Savannah, Georgia, to scholars and strategists watching from Texas, the indictment of former President Donald Trump rippled across a deeply divided nation today. 

For some, the news brought hope, though for different reasons. For others, it sparked fear or outrage. For nearly all, it was sobering. 

At the Lincoln Memorial in Washington, which commemorates the president who urged a fratricidal nation to go forward “with malice toward none, with charity toward all,” the Olipa family debated what’s happened to leadership in America.

“I wonder – do we not have leaders with the strength of Lincoln? Or do they have the strength, but we tear them down?” asks Andrew Olipa, one of two adult sons, who is visiting from Salt Lake City. 

“Today, there is no common moral code,” says his mother, Mary Masters Olipa of Phoenix, whose grandfathers each served in both world wars and instilled in her a strong sense of patriotism.  

Across the country, many people had questions about what would happen next to Mr. Trump, who shattered political norms throughout his unorthodox rise and volatile four years in power – including a last-ditch effort to keep it on Jan. 6, 2021.

Would he once again springboard off this seeming setback to reach greater political heights, even the White House again? Or is this the beginning of the end for his political career?

Behind those uncertainties loomed the larger questions the Olipas were pondering on the steps of the Lincoln Memorial, looking down the National Mall toward the U.S. Capitol. What does this all mean for the country – its founding vision, legal underpinnings, and political and social cohesion?

“We’re in uncharted territory here,” says H.W. Brands, a historian at the University of Texas at Austin. “To me, the broader question is whether Trump is a unique individual – a unicorn. Or is he a model for the future?”

A weak case?

New York District Attorney Alvin Bragg has pursued a case against Mr. Trump involving $130,000 that Trump lawyer Michael Cohen paid to porn actress Stormy Daniels in 2016, allegedly so she would keep quiet about an affair she said she and Mr. Trump briefly had. Mr. Trump has denied having an affair with her. 

The grand jury delivered an indictment Thursday evening. For some Trump critics, it was cause for celebration after the former president had evaded so many other attempts to prove misdeeds. But others cautioned that the bar for an indictment is significantly lower than for a conviction, though prosecutors generally bear that in mind.

“They only bring something to the grand jury if they think they can prove guilt beyond reasonable doubt,” says Barbara McQuade, a former U.S. attorney appointed by President Barack Obama now teaching at the University of Michigan Law School. “Alvin Bragg knows Donald Trump is going to come at this with everything he’s got.”

John Feehery, a GOP strategist who worked for former Texas Rep. Tom DeLay, who was prosecuted for campaign finance violations and later indicted, says such charges “degrade politics.” He calls the hush money case “the weakest case that the Democrats could possibly make against Trump,” and predicts it will backfire politically. 

“Democrats are obsessed with Trump, but they are ignoring crime in their backyard. And that’s what’s happening where I live in D.C. Crime is all over the place,” Mr. Feehery says. “That message resonates: Instead of paying attention to things that matter, the Democrats are involved in political witch hunts.”

Democrats have witnessed before how effectively Mr. Trump can use charges against him as an opportunity to not only play the victim but also encourage his supporters to see it as an attack against them as well. 

“President Trump embodies the American people – our psyche from id to super-ego – as does no other figure,” wrote the New York Young Republican Club in a March 30 statement condemning the indictment. “He is our total and indisputable champion.”

George Edwards III, an emeritus professor of political science at Texas A&M University, says Mr. Trump’s attitude – that a man of his stature should not be indicted – is “offensive and dangerous.” But on the other hand, he says, the crime in question is normally considered a misdemeanor.

“That worries me a lot, because it does open the prosecution to the charge of weaponization of the judicial system,” says Professor Edwards.

Indeed, many Republicans have voiced such concern, including Mr. Trump’s presumptive 2024 GOP rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, as well as members of Congress and groups around the country. 

“If you believe the entire system is rigged, as Trump has frequently argued, maybe a grand jury indictment doesn’t mean all that much to you,” says Jeffrey Engel, director of the Center for Presidential History at Southern Methodist University in Dallas. “But for a president of the United States, who is bound by the Constitution to ensure that the laws of the nation are faithfully upheld ... I would hope that he would have more faith in the laws of his country, including those of a grand jury.”

“It rips open a scab” 

Taking a lunch break from loading and unloading ships in Savannah, James Lucas says in a phone conversation that the New York indictment seemed like a last-ditch effort after years of failed attempts to get the man he credits with lower taxes, cheaper gas, and more business at the port.  

“Honestly, I just think it’s going to make Trump’s following even bigger,” says Mr. Lucas, a local union member and former Democratic voter who says he started taking notice of Mr. Trump when both Democrats and Republicans went after him in the 2016 campaign with such gusto. “It made me think, this guy must really have something on these people.”

He doesn’t plan to join any protests, however, despite Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s declaration that she would travel to New York on Tuesday, when Mr. Trump is expected to be arraigned. 

Suzzanne Monk, a Trump supporter who as chair of the Patriot Action PAC has been active in protesting the conditions of the Washington jail where Jan. 6 defendants have been held, also doesn’t plan to protest the indictment in person.

“There’s just no point,” says Ms. Monk in a text message, describing the charges against Mr. Trump – still yet to be fully revealed – as “old stories rehashed by desperate lawyers.”

Joel Payne, a Democratic strategist based in Washington, D.C., acknowledges the criticism that the New York case may not be the most serious of all the possible charges Mr. Trump is facing. But it needs to be seen in the context of the closely fought 2016 contest between him and Hillary Rodham Clinton.

“I think people are underplaying the significance of the Stormy Daniels payment,” says Mr. Payne. “I don’t think it’s small potatoes when you think about how it might have influenced the 2016 election.”

And even if Mr. Trump now plays the victim card for political gain, he adds, the former president needs to be held accountable. “I think it’s important for us to keep the attention on the bad behavior and not on the downstream political effects.”  

Indeed, the timing might have been a boon for Mr. Trump’s campaign fundraising, coming just before the end of the first quarter. It will likely add to the momentum he’s gained in recent weeks over Governor DeSantis. 

Still, Matt Mackowiak, a GOP strategist in Austin, Texas, says that while the indictment could help Mr. Trump in the short- to medium-term, it may hurt him in the long term. 

“This indictment increases the odds that he’s the [GOP] nominee,” says Mr. Mackowiak. But he says swing voters – the ones Mr. Trump would have to woo back to win in 2024 – will likely be turned off by more drama. “I don’t think it increases the odds that he wins the White House.”

As for its impact on the country, he is concerned that the indictment could plunge the country into a period of upheaval similar to the late 1960s.

“I think it rips open a scab that’s been developing since the 2020 election,” says Mr. Mackowiak. “I hope we can settle this through the election.”