Assassination days before presidential vote shakes Ecuador – and region

For years, Ecuador has been labeled a bastion of peace in a region racked by violence and political unrest. But the recent assassination of anti-corruption presidential hopeful Fernando Villavicencio shattered that perception, highlighting how the small South American nation is facing down a rapidly expanding war on organized crime amid political divisions and limited economic resources.

As Ecuadorians vote for their next president Aug. 20, their shaken views around security and safety following Mr. Villavicencio’s murder could become the most important mandate for the nation’s next leader.

The 59-year-old journalist and political underdog running on an anti-corruption platform was shot multiple times as he climbed into a vehicle after a campaign rally in the capital, Quito, on Aug. 9. 

In the days before his death, Mr. Villavicencio denounced the creeping power of transnational drug cartels in Ecuadorian politics, a problem the country had largely avoided even as neighbors Colombia and Peru became the world’s largest cocaine producers, and others in the region were largely defined by brutal violence. Singling out a cartel with ties to gangs in Mexico, Colombia, and Albania, Mr. Villavicencio promised to crack down on crime and corruption, which have driven a spike in killings here since 2020. His assassination has been a wake-up call not only for Ecuadorians, but the region as a whole.

“We used to be called an island of peace, but this is an event of such magnitude it’s like kicking the chessboard,” says former Ecuadorian President Jamil Mahuad of Mr. Villavicencio’s murder. “This is a war; we have to be prepared to go to war.”

“New for us”

His slaying is one of three that have been politically related in the past month, including one Monday.

The violence in Ecuador, a nation the geographic size of Nevada where almost 7 million people live in poverty, is a warning to other Latin American countries, Mr. Mahuad says. “The world is a much more complex place now, this is a risk for the whole region.”

Transnational cartels are more organized, better armed, and unafraid to use terror to seize power. “It’s like an octopus with many tentacles, they have a clear goal to infiltrate all aspects of society,” he says.

Cartels have recently targeted politicians in Colombia, Venezuela, Paraguay, and Mexico, while the president of Haiti, Jovenel Moïse, was killed in his home by foreign mercenaries in 2021. 

As global demand for cocaine has soared in recent years, criminal networks have expanded their territory into new areas like Ecuador, leading to the explosion of violence. Competition between rival cartels over key shipping routes in coastal provinces here has been blamed for killing thousands, including more than 600 in a series of prison riots since 2021.

“Ecuador is going through a process of expansion of organized crime,” says María McFarland Sánchez-Moreno, author of the book, There Are No Dead Here, on the rise of narcopolitics in Colombia. “They all have learned that the way to maintain their very profitable businesses is by controlling territory and controlling politics,” she says of organized crime groups.

“Nothing is free”

In the hours before he was killed, Mr. Villavicencio went on television to say he had received three death threats from the leader of the Ecuadorian Los Choneros drug cartel, José Adolfo Macías, known as Fito. Mr. Macías is currently serving a 34-year sentence for crimes including drug trafficking and murder, and has led the cartel from inside a maximum-security prison in Guayaquil since the previous leader was killed in 2020.

“They told me that if I kept mentioning Fito’s name and talking about the Choneros they were going to break me,” Mr. Villavicencio said in a television interview on Teleamazonas the day of his murder.

Despite the threats, Mr. Villavicencio refused to suspend his campaign or wear a bullet-proof vest, traveling to Quito later that day for a series of political rallies where he told supporters he would not be silenced. “Nothing is free here,” he said, according to a video recording of his last speech at the T. W. Anderson public school in northern Quito last week. “Defending the nation has cost us our lives, and we won’t allow another betrayal.”

Minutes later, he was dead. One suspect was killed in a shootout with police and nine other bystanders were injured, including a legislative candidate and two police officers, according to a statement by Ecuador’s state prosecutor.

Christian Zurita, an investigative journalist who worked with Mr. Villavicencio to expose corruption, will replace the slain candidate on the ballot in national elections this weekend.

“This is so sad,” says Mario Jiménez, a father of two who had planned to vote for Mr. Villavicencio in elections. “He was the only one who had the courage to stand up to the mafias. Now there’s going to be even more fighting.”

Courage ahead

Born in the highland province of Chimborazo, Mr. Villavicencio was a well-known journalist, union leader, and founding member of Ecuador’s Indigenous party, Pachakutik. He made a name for himself during the 2007-2017 administration of populist former President Rafael Correa, exposing government corruption in the nation’s oil industry. He was sentenced to one and a half years in jail in 2014 for allegedly insulting Mr. Correa but managed to avoid prison time by fleeing to the Amazon, where he took refuge with the Indigenous community of Sarayaku until charges expired a year later.

Mr. Villavicencio’s investigations eventually led to Mr. Correa’s conviction on sprawling corruption charges in 2020, forcing the former president to seek political asylum in Belgium after stepping down from power. In 2021, Mr. Villavicencio was elected to the National Assembly, where he led a powerful oversight committee that he used to continue his work, documenting billions in misspent funds. His willingness to take on the mafias, however, also made him a target, says Paolo Moncagatta, dean of social sciences at the Universidad San Francisco in Quito.

“Rafael Correa was one of his principal enemies, but he wasn’t the only one,” says Dr. Moncagatta. “Villavicencio was a man with a lot of information, and he was very exposed.”

In a statement on social media following the assassination, Mr. Correa expressed his condolences: “I hope that those who are trying to sow even more hatred with this new tragedy understand that it only destroys us more.”

In the aftermath of last week’s assassination, some have called Mr. Villavicencio a hero, while others question why he didn’t use more caution. Those who are willing to stand up to the cartels are often hard to stop, says Ms. McFarland Sánchez-Moreno, who is also acting deputy program director at Human Rights Watch. “Most people keep their heads down because they are scared, and it’s understandable. But people who are willing to challenge these cartels think a different way is possible, it’s part of who they are, and you’re not going to stop them.”

Mr. Villavicencio was considered a likely contender for a runoff election with Luisa González, representing Mr. Correa’s Citizens’ Revolution party, according to a recent survey by Quito-based pollster Cedatos. 

Now, according to Dr. Moncagatta, Ecuadorians are faced with a difficult choice in the upcoming vote. “There is a high probability that an authoritarian government wins to come in and put an end to the violence,” Dr. Moncagatta says. “It makes me sad, but it looks like years of violence are coming.”

While Ecuador has not reached the levels of violence seen in Colombia when presidential candidate Luis Carlos Galán was killed by the Medellín Cartel in 1989, the country needs international support, and politicians need to start working together, Mr. Mahuad says. “This is new for us; we need to develop new skills, which will take many years and much courage.”