‘Last bastion of democracy’? Guatemalans vote in presidential runoff.

More than 200 Mayan women gathered with back looms and protest banners outside the public prosecutor’s office in Guatemala City last week, demanding the government stop “weaving corruption” ahead of a presidential runoff election.

It was one of many diverse – and earnest – protests that emerged across Guatemala in the lead-up to this Sunday’s vote, part of a chorus of calls for officials to respect the electoral process and democracy here. 

“We are protesting today not to defend any political party, but for democracy, for rule of law,” says Angelina Aspuac, coordinator of the National Movement of Weavers, which organized the demonstration. Across the street, weavers worked on brilliantly colored textiles in a symbolic act of protest. Strips of paper reading “hope” and “democracy” adorned the threads on their looms.

On June 25, Bernardo Arévalo, of the Movimiento Semilla party, unexpectedly secured second place in a first-round presidential election, behind Unidad Nacional de la Esperanza contender and former first lady Sandra Torres. Many in the political and economic elite consider Mr. Arévalo a threat to Guatemala’s status quo.

But Mr. Arévalo, a sociologist and congressman, seems to have captured a wave of citizen frustration. Many are angered by systemic corruption and the government’s weakening of democratic institutions – a discontent that has been further fueled by an ongoing criminal investigation into Mr. Arévalo’s party that is widely considered politically motivated. Guatemalans are heading to the polls this weekend, and for many, regardless of political affiliation, the vote will define the nation’s path – either toward, or further away from, democracy.

The future of Guatemala is at stake, says Iduvina Hernández, director of the Association for the Study of Security in Democracy, a Guatemalan nongovernmental organization.

The government’s attempts to undermine the election, and the growing support for an outsider candidate, have “convinced a citizenry that had a lot of apathy ... to start to believe in the possibility of change,” she says.

“No secret”

Rule of law has seen a drastic decline in Guatemala over the past five years. More than two dozen prosecutors and judges working on high-profile cases on corruption and crimes against humanity have fled the country into exile, while others who remain face prosecution and prison.

The recent raids, arrest warrants, and other measures targeting Movimiento Semilla and the electoral tribunal, which certified Mr. Arévalo’s spot in the runoff, triggered alarm both in and outside Guatemala. Prosecutors are still investigating allegedly fraudulent signatures related to the party’s founding.

Governments including the United States, Canada, and the European Union, as well as multilateral institutions, condemned the actions. International observation missions are on the ground to monitor the Aug. 20 vote.

“It is no secret that we are very concerned,” Luis Almagro, secretary-general of the Organization of American States, noted last week in a report on his visit to the country this month. “It is a worrying situation in terms of the electoral process and in terms of the institutions of a democratic state.”

Outgoing President Alejandro Giammattei assured Mr. Almagro that the government will respect the run-off results, promising to hand over power to the winner on Jan. 14. Should Mr. Arévalo win – which recent polls show is likely – his party is expected to face further legal challenges.

Unlikely organizers

Whether the run-off would even happen was up in the air a few weeks ago. That’s when Israel Ortiz and other members of evangelical Christian churches began meeting over Zoom to organize expressions of support for democracy across congregations and counter the public dominance of conservative evangelical voices aligned with the ruling party.

Within two weeks the grassroots initiative included members and leaders from Baptist, Pentecostal, Presbyterian, and Mennonite congregations, along with non-denominational Christians. Dubbed the Evangelical Roundtable for Democracy, the group has made calls for broader public political participation, launched social media accounts, and took part in a roughly 250-person march last weekend in Guatemala City.

In Guatemala, “the influence and power of religion are used to push narratives that are ultimately intended to demobilize people,” and keep them from participating in political change, says Mr. Ortiz. “In contrast, we are people of faith, and faith mobilizes us,” he says, referring to the roundtable’s political activism. Many roundtable members individually support Mr. Arévalo’s party, but their group is non-partisan, focused on support for democracy.

Disinformation has figured prominently in the run-off. Signs and brochures purporting to be from Mr. Arévalo’s campaign have broadcast false claims that he plans to legalize abortion and marriage equality. Those allegations have also been stoked by pastors, far-right groups, and by Ms. Torres, Mr. Arévalo’s conservative rival.

“The final element of democracy that remains is the popular vote,” Mr. Ortiz says. We are here “to defend that last bastion of democracy, because if we do not do it now, we may not have another opportunity for decades,” he says in Guatemala City’s expansive central plaza at the end of an Aug. 13 march.

Continuity vs. change

Mr. Arévalo and Ms. Torres each held a series of rallies this week, before the mandatory suspension of all campaigning at noon Friday. Two recent polls on voter intentions found Mr. Arévalo holding a lead over Ms. Torres of between 22 and 29 points, with more than 60% of voter support. But a climate of uncertainty and tension remains.

The political turmoil over the past several weeks – and in the leadup to the June general election, when several prominent candidates were disqualified from running – has confused and deterred some potential voters. But the legal actions against Mr. Arévalo’s party and the electoral tribunal significantly raised his profile and strengthened the perception that the run-off is between contenders representing continuity vs. change.

The burgeoning support for Mr. Arévalo against all expectations “is the most clear expression of people being fed up with what has been happening and exercising their vote as a mechanism of rejection,” says Ms. Hernández, the NGO director.

Political parties have historically shown up in Indigenous communities during campaign periods, giving gifts or making promises, and then ignoring and excluding these populations once in power, says Salvador Quiacain, a Maya Tz’utujil elder and community leader from San Pedro la Laguna. Although “Arévalo may not be perfect,” Mr. Quiacain is hopeful his government would be more inclusive and open to dialogue.

Standing outside the prosecutor’s office, where he came to support the weavers’ protests, Mr. Quiacain says, “Fortunately we have an option.”