‘Hope won’ Guatemalan presidential vote, but hurdles remain

Firecrackers, noisemakers, and cheers pierced the night sky Sunday as Guatemalans descended on plazas across the country to celebrate the resounding victory of Bernardo Arévalo, a sociologist and member of Congress seen as a threat to the political establishment.

“Hope won,” José López, a retail worker, says excitedly while on his way to one of the impromptu celebrations in Guatemala City. “People are tired of all the corruption. We are fed up,” he says.

Mr. Arévalo, the Movimiento Semilla party’s presidential contender, garnered 58% of the vote. His rival, former first lady Sandra Torres, obtained 37.2%, but she has yet to concede as her Unidad Nacional de la Esperanza party questions the election proceedings.

Just a few months ago, most in Guatemala knew little about Mr. Arévalo, aside from his famous last name. (His father was the country’s first democratically elected president, ushering in a decadelong “democratic spring” in 1945.) But three candidates, including two popular outsiders, were disqualified from the first-round election on questionable grounds, paving the way for Mr. Arévalo’s surprise second-place victory back in June. Brazen judicial moves targeting his party only galvanized voters further, observers say.

There are high expectations from the voters who backed him. They expressed a desire for change from the years of systemic corruption and weakening of institutional independence that have come to define modern politics here. His presidential plans include proposals to combat corruption, improve access to public education and health care, and foment equitable economic growth.

But analysts say Mr. Arévalo’s first challenges will be the certification of the runoff results and getting sworn into office in January. He is expected to face fierce political and judicial backlash in the weeks and months ahead; many here say threats to Guatemala’s democracy are far from over.

“This is a turning point for Guatemalan democracy,” says Gabriela Carrera, a political science professor at the Rafael Landívar University in Guatemala City. In the coming weeks and months, “the defense of democracy by Guatemalan society, both organized and unorganized,” will play a critical role in ensuring the public’s choice at the ballot box is respected.

A done deal?

Mr. Arévalo’s unexpected success in the first round of voting in June spurred swift backlash from other parties and the public prosecutor’s office. Legal challenges and criminal investigations into how his party was officially registered five years ago were widely considered to be politically motivated. Both Movimiento Semilla and the electoral tribunal, which certified the results of the first-round vote bringing Mr. Arévalo to the runoff, were targeted with raids and arrest warrants this summer.

More interference is likely around the corner. Three days before the runoff, special anti-impunity prosecutor Rafael Curruchiche spoke about several election-related cases, including an ongoing investigation into allegedly fraudulent signatures in Movimiento Semilla’s registration as a party. Arrest warrants and other measures in the wake of the runoff should not be discounted, he told reporters.

“The goal of sabotaging the electoral process is still present,” says Renzo Rosal, a Guatemalan political analyst. Some political and economic elites may try to maintain a grip on power, no matter how blatant – or undemocratic – their efforts. “They seek to derail the process, even though it’s after the fact,” says Mr. Rosal.

Guatemalan President Alejandro Giammattei congratulated Mr. Arévalo on his victory and invited him to a meeting once the runoff results are official. But the certification of the election results will be key, analysts say. Ms. Torres and her party repeatedly questioned the validity of Movimiento Semilla and the election process in the lead-up to the runoff, setting the stage for a refusal to recognize Sunday’s outcome.

Mr. Arévalo acknowledged “ongoing political persecution carried out by institutions, prosecutors, and judges who have been corruptly co-opted” in his victory speech Sunday night. He said details on his future Cabinet will be announced soon.

Naming a Cabinet may have repercussions. “The day people are announced as potential Cabinet members or people who could be in key positions, those names will be put in the crosshairs of the prosecutor’s office,” says Mr. Rosal.

Seeking change

Voters trickled in and out of a polling station tucked away in a parking lot underneath Guatemala City’s central plaza almost imperceptibly Sunday afternoon, while the plaza bustled with families and vendors.

“We hope this next government brings about changes,” says Mariela Contreras, a Guatemala City resident, after walking out of the polling station. Successive governments have done nothing to improve life in Guatemala, she says. “They have all failed us.”

Mr. Arévalo and his running mate Karin Herrera, a biologist, are not short on proposals for change. Their 64-page government plan addresses everything from structural causes of chronic childhood malnutrition to cracking down on anti-competitive business practices.

Anti-corruption measures were front and center on the campaign trail. A few of them are at the top of Mr. Arévalo’s list of 24 priorities for his first 100 days in office: identifying and reporting corruption cases, establishing a new code of ethics and transparency for government officials, and ensuring information on all government expenditure – “every cent” – is available to the public.

Access to education and health, including expansion and improvement of coverage, is another cornerstone of his plans. In light of high medication costs, he’s promised to create a state company with a network of public pharmacies.

Mr. Arévalo and Ms. Herrera’s plan mentions Indigenous people – who comprise close to half the country’s population – in relation to inclusion and equitable social spending. Like most other party platforms in the country, though, it does not address historical racism, says Victoria Tubin, a sociologist who is of the Maya Kaqchikel people.

Some traditional governance authorities and Indigenous women’s organizations have expressed interest in dialogue with the party during the transition period, says Ms. Tubin.

Job training and creation programs, significant investment in road and highway infrastructure, and the addition of 12,000 officers to the national police force are just a few more points in Movimiento Semilla’s wide-ranging plan.

The feasibility of it all is based, in part, on a projected annual increase in tax revenues without raising tax rates, says Lourdes Molina, a senior economist at the Central American Institute for Fiscal Studies. Instead, the party plans to improve the tax administration system, reduce evasion, and go after customs fraud. While income inequality in Guatemala is among the highest in Latin America, its tax burden is among the lowest and consumers bear the brunt of it. The country loses an estimated $1 billion in revenue annually due to evasion of the value-added tax alone.

“The availability of resources is what determines whether government plans will just end up being campaign promises or whether they will become realities,” says Ms. Molina.

Challenges ahead

Mr. Arévalo’s administration will find few allies in other branches of government. Top courts are stacked against anti-corruption crusaders like him, and Consuelo Porras, the country’s controversial attorney general, is in office until 2026.

In Congress, Movimiento Semilla will hold 23 of 160 seats next year. The current ruling party, Vamos, and the Unidad Nacional de la Esperanza party both won more seats and have formed an informal alliance with several other parties in recent years.

What “we have been calling the ruling alliance is going to continue and will even become stronger,” says Mr. Rosal, the political analyst. “We’re easily talking about at least 110 or 120 congressional representatives, so it is an extremely strong majority that will dominate Congress, its executive committee, and key commissions,” he says.

Should Movimiento Semilla lose its status as a registered party, its elected lawmakers would take office as independents. They would be barred from presiding over congressional commissions, among other roles. A judge ordered its status be revoked in July, but the electoral tribunal refused to comply given it is illegal to cancel a party while an electoral process is underway. The country’s top court agreed, putting those efforts on hold until October.

“The other important thing is that it would bog down Semilla leadership in legal struggles,” says Ms. Carrera, the political scientist. “The party’s most important leaders at the moment are elected congressional representatives,” she says.

For now, officials cannot suspend the party, but that doesn’t mean they won’t pursue other measures in the meantime. “There is a series of dynamics that we are unable to see but that is even more dangerous,” says Ms. Carrera.

“Definitely what is feared” by those currently in power, she adds, “is the will of the Guatemalan people.”