Is democracy sinking in Guatemala? Legal meddling ahead of inauguration.

Cristina Valenzuela raises her hand-crafted protest sign on a downtown street corner earlier this month, while hundreds of people file past. The poster shows alarmed passengers holding up the Guatemalan flag aboard a boat labeled “democracia,” as the vessel tilts into blue tissue-paper water.

“We are just one step away from losing that democracy we have struggled so much to maintain,” says Ms. Valenzuela, a retired teacher shouting over the din of the crowd of pro-democracy protesters on Dec. 7.

More than 3 1/2 months since anti-corruption candidate and underdog Bernardo Arévalo won the presidential runoff election in Guatemala, top prosecutors are ramping up efforts to subvert his victory. They claim the results of the first-round, general elections back in June should be annulled.

Mr. Arévalo is set to take office on Jan. 14, but he and other leaders of his political party are facing attempts by prosecutors to strip them of their immunity from prosecution. If stripped, they could face charges including sedition and money laundering. But they aren’t the only ones under threat: Those in charge of certifying the election results, officially making Mr. Arévalo the president-elect, fled Guatemala earlier this month after their immunity from prosecution was taken away by Congress.

Attempts to undermine democracy across Latin America have put the region under an international microscope in recent years, and individual sanctions by foreign governments are on the rise. Lawfare – defined as misusing the law or judicial system as a weapon against opponents – is now thriving in parts of the region, including Guatemala, where observers say it is being used to subvert electoral democracy.

On Dec. 14, Guatemala’s top court stepped in, ordering Congress to ensure all officials elected in 2023 take office in January. The ruling, however, does not put the brakes on prosecutors’ investigations into Mr. Arévalo. As the crisis breeds uncertainty, civil society and Indigenous-led protests are leading the call for Attorney General Consuelo Porras and other key players to resign.

“The justice system has been used as a political tool,” says Edgar Ortiz, a constitutional lawyer and one of the plaintiffs in the case that led to the Dec. 14 ruling. Lawfare has reached new heights in Guatemala, he says. Still, Mr. Ortiz sees some progress.

“The beautiful thing about this moment in Guatemala is that it has been like a concert, an orchestra. Everyone has played an instrument” in defending democracy, he says, from public protests to international pressure to legal action.

Suspensions and suspicions

Efforts to undermine the election process began after Mr. Arévalo, a sociologist and sitting congressman from the anti-corruption Movimiento Semilla party, qualified for the August runoff.

A judge suspended Semilla’s party status, and prosecutors carried out a series of raids on election tribunal facilities. Public prosecutors filed a motion in November to strip Mr. Arévalo, his vice president-elect, and other lawmakers of their immunity from prosecution, citing social media posts supporting a student movement as evidence of their involvement in a criminal conspiracy.

Congress voted at the end of November in the final ordinary session of the year to strip four election tribunal magistrates of their immunity, paving the way for charges against them. The two-thirds majority vote was made possible by an informal alliance across many of the 19 parties in Congress whose representatives feel threatened by Mr. Arévalo’s promises to crack down on corruption. The four magistrates left the country, following in the footsteps of dozens of prosecutors and judges who have fled into exile in recent years due to threats for their roles in tackling high-level corruption cases.

“The judicialization of politics in the country has been reaching more and more worrying levels,” says Gabriela Carrera, a political science professor at Rafael Landivar University. “This is not happening overnight. ... It’s a strategy that’s being adapted to election results.”

On Dec. 8, prosecutors asserted the results of the general elections should be nullified, citing alleged irregularities, including the format of voting records. They also filed an additional request to strip Mr. Arévalo of his immunity. He can’t officially face any charges until his immunity is lifted.

“Today we are seeing the consequences of the subjugation, subordination, and control of the judicial system,” says Renzo Rosal, a Guatemalan political analyst who believes the aim of prosecutors’ latest moves is to extend the crisis.

A 180 on corruption?

Not long ago, Guatemala was seen as a shining light in the region in terms of judicial independence, sending former heads of state to trial for genocide and systemic corruption. It garnered international praise, but not all Guatemalans were pleased with the country’s path.

An informal multipartisan alliance of state and private-sector actors, whose interests were threatened by anti-corruption work, set out to dismantle that judicial independence. The alliance, known in Guatemala as the “pact of the corrupt,” co-opted institutions and consolidated power across branches of government.

The Organization of American States called the Dec. 8 move “an attempted coup d’état by the Public Prosecutor’s Office.” The European Union announced it was preparing “targeted restrictive measures against those responsible” for continued attempts to undermine election results. The United States is ramping up its sanctions against officials across branches of government, announcing new visa restrictions last week on nearly 300 Guatemalans, including more than 100 of the country’s 160 members of Congress.

“We are facing a ridiculous, absurd, and perverse coup d’état,” Mr. Arévalo said at a press conference in the wake of the prosecutors’ latest attempts to keep him out of office. Election tribunal officials have since repeatedly affirmed election results are certified and cannot be altered.

The Dec. 14 Constitutional Court ruling, if respected, ensures the presidential transfer of power takes place in the new year. But even if Mr. Arévalo is able to take office, prosecutors could pursue the same legal paths to try and oust him regardless.

The “use of justice for political cases weakens the political and democratic institutionality of Guatemala,” says Dr. Carrera. “We are confronted with a more complicated situation: how to recuperate and strengthen political institutionality in the service of the citizenry and common good.”

Indigenous leaders from around the country don’t trust that the Constitutional Court ruling will halt coup attempts. They say they will maintain their protest encampment, set up on Oct. 2 outside the public prosecutors’ office in Guatemala City, until inauguration day.

“Democracy belongs to the people, not to the state,” says protester Ana Lucrecia Char, a Maya Kaqchikel leader from Chuarrancho, 20 miles north of the capital.

She thinks Mr. Arévalo managing to take office on Jan. 14 will in itself be cause for celebration, after months of struggle in the streets and courts.

“We are sick of all the corruption,” she says.