How Ecuador went from sleepy refuge to a state of emergency

In the span of a few short days this month, prison riots and gang violence in Ecuador led to President Daniel Noboa declaring a state of emergency – and an “internal armed conflict” against organized criminals. He labeled 22 gangs “terrorist” organizations for the military to “neutralize.”  

Ecuador has long been viewed as a regional bastion of safety and stability, but over the past six years homicide rates have climbed at alarming rates, leading to this week’s brazen violence.

Why is Ecuador in a state of emergency?

President Noboa declared a state of emergency on Jan. 8 – mobilizing the military in places like prisons and implementing a nationwide curfew that’s set to last two months. The move followed the prison break of a notorious criminal leader, Adolfo Macías, known as “Fito.” Further unrest unfurled as the week went on, with organized criminal groups targeting universities, a television station (with an armed confrontation broadcast on live TV), prisons, and the police.

Cartels may control parts of Mexico and some Brazilian cities, says Brian Winter, editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly. “But this kind of assault by gangs that are so strong that they may pose a threat to the general rule of law and ability of a central government to project power? … I’m not sure we’ve seen anything like this since the bad old days of Pablo Escobar” in Colombia, he says.

How did this all start?

In 2018, Ecuador had one of the lowest homicide rates in Latin America. Nestled between Colombia and Peru, the region’s largest cocaine producers, Ecuador was considered a sleepy refuge. But, between increased global demand for cocaine, shifting shipping routes and methods, and growing alliances between local gangs and international criminal organizations in Mexico and Albania, Ecuador rose rapidly to become one of the most violent countries in the region. Homicides of youth alone went up by 500% since 2018, and today the homicide rate is 45 people killed per 100,000.

There have been internal and external factors that got Ecuador where it is today, says Arturo Torres, an Ecuadorian journalist who covers security and founder of the investigative news site Código Vidrio. “The country’s central problem is systemic corruption that exists at all levels of the state,” he says. It made Ecuador fertile ground for the arrival of international cartels looking to transport drugs and launder money. “No country is prepared for this kind of criminal phenomenon, and even less so a country with widespread institutional corruption,” he says.

Car bombings, kidnappings, prison riots, and high-profile murders, like that of presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio last August, have only increased since the pandemic. Mr. Torres believes this week’s violence was planned several weeks in advance, but a dysfunctional – and poorly funded – state intelligence apparatus meant it took everyone by surprise.

What’s at risk?

Everything.

Mr. Noboa took office in November in a special election to complete his predecessor’s term, which ends in May next year, giving him very little time to effect change.

During his campaign, he promised a mano dura (iron fist) approach to the growing security challenges, and recently proposed a public referendum to vote on potentially lengthening prison sentences for serious crimes and authorizing the military to combat criminal groups.

Many voters had hoped their next leader could emulate the security successes of authoritarian President Nayib Bukele in El Salvador, where once record-high homicide rates have plummeted – alongside civil liberties.

“The time is over when drug trafficking criminals, hitmen, and organized crime dictate to the government what to do,” Mr. Noboa said in a video posted on Instagram this week. The armed forces announced they’ve detained more than 320 people under the new state of emergency, and that five alleged criminals were killed in clashes as of Jan. 10.

Nervous neighbors including Peru, Colombia, and Argentina, and global powers from the United States to Israel to Russia, have made preliminary offers of assistance, according to Mr. Noboa.

But Mr. Noboa’s approach isn’t exactly novel. The previous administration of Guillermo Lasso declared state of emergencies on 20 occasions and labeled various criminal groups as terrorists, with little to show for it.

“There’s nothing new in how the government is responding,” says Mr. Torres, who fears that without a plan to confront the infiltration of organized crime into the ranks of the armed forces and other institutions, there’s no reason to expect anything to improve. There’s also the question of youth recruitment in a moment when economic and educational opportunity are particularly lacking.

“The state is so weak and so contaminated it isn’t able to guarantee security for anyone right now,” he says.