Venezuelans say they’re done with Maduro. Will the presidential election reflect that?

Last month, when Venezuela’s wildly popular opposition party leader was touring the country, the owner of a restaurant prepared to lend her team space for a political meeting. But the gathering never happened: The government of President Nicolás Maduro preemptively slapped the restaurateur with fines, closed his restaurant, and confiscated his truck and other equipment.

More than frightening the owner, who asked to remain anonymous in hopes of recuperating his assets, it pushed him to double down on a sentiment that’s growing among Venezuelans in recent years: “It’s time to hand over power,” he says of Mr. Maduro’s 11-year tenure. “My future depends on” it, he says.

His experience is part of a cosmic shift taking place in Venezuela right now. Citizens are exhausted by a repressive government that has all but forgotten the poverty alleviation and social programs that launched the popular movement of former President Hugo Chávez in 1998. Long hesitant to speak out against chavismo, as the political project now led by Mr. Maduro is called, citizens today are wearied by losing food aid or suffering government retaliation. And they are starting to share political opinions with strangers on public transportation, attend opposition rallies, and heckle government officials.

Amid the political, economic, and humanitarian crises that have pushed nearly 8 million Venezuelans to flee home over the past decade – and left the vast majority of the remaining population in poverty – more than 80% of Venezuelans say they want this weekend’s presidential election to change their country’s trajectory.

A shifting tolerance of Mr. Maduro is putting unprecedented attention – and pressure – on his government.

But a rejection of chavismo won’t necessarily spell victory for the opposition. Democracy has nearly evaporated in Venezuela: There are few remaining independent institutions or checks on the executive, and the media is largely state-controlled. Few expect the race to be free or fair July 28.

In Mr. Maduro’s attempts to cling to power, his government has barred popular opposition candidates from running, made registering to vote more complicated, and targeted citizens working far outside the political sphere with exaggerated consequences for demonstrating support for the opposition. The question now is whether these final, obvious moves to stay in office will work – or what other plans Mr. Maduro may have in store.

“The government’s attempt to scare people tells me they are running out of ideas,” says Phil Gunson, a Caracas-based senior analyst at International Crisis Group, a global think tank.

Growing resistance – and obstacles 

Ángel Subero Vásquez, a regional coordinator for the opposition party Voluntad Popular, has made big changes in his lifestyle over the past few months in light of Mr. Maduro’s crackdowns.

“I have never experienced this level of political repression before,” says the political staffer in his early 30s.

Mr. Subero relies on multiple phone lines to avoid work conversations getting intercepted. He rarely walks alone anymore. One of his colleagues is in prison, arrested earlier this month on trumped-up charges of “conspiracy plans” to allegedly undermine the vote.

“This doesn’t just hit you personally; it hits ... everything around you,” he says.

Government repression used to target high-profile critics. But it has evolved, now touching operational staff members like Mr. Subero – but also truck drivers and informal workers selling empanadas. Anyone suspected of providing services or crossing paths with key members of the opposition can fall prey.

This “comes from a place of weakness,” says Mercedes De Freitas, director of Transparencia Venezuela, a nongovernmental organization that exposes corruption.

There were more than 75 arbitrary detentions in the first 15 days of the presidential campaign, which launched July 4, according to Laboratorio de Paz, a Venezuelan NGO.

The government’s recent tactics may be backfiring, fueling frustration among average Venezuelans and generating sympathy for the opposition, says Mr. Gunson.

Sitting on a battered bus that clatters through a former government stronghold here on a recent morning, passengers casually discuss the upcoming presidential election – something unheard of in public even a year ago.

“What kind of socialism is this?” one man says angrily, pointing as the bus passes dilapidated homes.

Ms. De Freitas says citizens are less cautious about openly criticizing the government because everyone else seems to be doing it. The repression and poor governance “has become too much for people,” she says.

What next?

Earlier this year, Mr. Maduro barred his key opponent, María Corina Machado, from running for president. She has achieved a messiahlike status among Venezuelans, who have united behind the opposition for the first time in decades. The president repeated the playbook with an academic chosen by Ms. Machado to replace her as the party coalition’s candidate. Now the opposition is backing the replacement of the replacement, Edmundo González Urrutia, a retired diplomat in his 70s whom the government has allowed to stay in the race. Polls show the opposition has more than a 20-point lead.

It’s become clear that Mr. Maduro can bar candidates – but not their popularity. His focus has shifted to keeping voters away from the ballot box at home and abroad. The government has spread false information about the opposition, closed and renamed voting centers to create confusion among the electorate, relocated voters to districts far from their homes, and created a disorienting ballot on which Mr. Maduro’s face appears 13 times.

Venezuela’s electoral authorities have denied access to international observers, though they are allowing a few experts from The Carter Center and the United Nations to follow the election. That’s not enough to ensure a free vote though, says Juan Carlos Galindo Vacha, an electoral expert and former head of Colombia’s National Civil Registry.

Defining moment

If Mr. Maduro clings to power, it will likely trigger national protests, Mr. Gunson says. Last week, the president threatened Venezuela could fall into a “civil war” if he loses.

Mr. Subero says that if the government stays in power, he’ll join the estimated quarter of the population that’s already fled Venezuela: “It will be either prison or exile.”

A June survey estimates that if Mr. Maduro wins another term, some 30% of Venezuelans still at home would consider leaving. The number could actually be even higher, Mr. Gunson warns, “not because people don’t want to leave,” but because regional neighbors are closing their doors to Venezuelan migrants – and many here don’t have the resources to leave.

Even if the opposition takes power, economic and security challenges will not evaporate. Experts say the economy would likely need 20 years to recover. Venezuela is home to the world’s largest proven oil reserves, but oil production dropped more than 75% over the past decade. Last year, Mr. Maduro committed to ensuring competitive elections in exchange for a partial lifting of U.S. sanctions on the oil and gas sectors. Following the suspension of Ms. Machado, sanctions were reinstated in April.

“They can steal the elections,” say Mr. Subero. But it’s a shortsighted way to hold on to power “when the majority of the country wants Maduro to leave.”