China’s ‘no-limits’ partnership with Russia shaken by mutiny

Soon after Chinese leader Xi Jinping came to power in 2012, he made a speech to Communist Party cadres, urging them to learn from the mistakes Moscow had made that led to the collapse of the former Soviet Union.

One fatal error, he concluded, were reforms that eroded the Soviet Communist Party’s control over the Russian military and security forces.

The weekend mutiny in Russia by Wagner paramilitary group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin – amid rising tensions between his mercenary force and the Russian military – is likely to see Beijing double down on this takeaway from Moscow’s travails.

 “This challenge in the form of this private military company, will probably lead Xi Jinping … to reemphasize the party’s longstanding tradition of the party commanding the gun,” says Joseph Torigian, assistant professor at the School of International Service at American University.

Unlike Russia, China does not allow private military companies, although it does permit private security firms, which have grown rapidly in number since being legalized in 2009, according to a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington.    

“One lesson I am sure they have already taken, is that any steps towards private security forces outside of the control of the CCP [Chinese Communist Party] should be strictly avoided,” says Camilla T.N. Sørensen, associate professor at the Institute for Strategy and War Studies at the Royal Danish Defense College.

The dramatic, though short-lived, rebellion is only the latest development in Russia since President Vladimir Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine to have given Beijing cause for concern.

As in past decades, China is scrutinizing the setbacks of its northern neighbor and like-minded authoritarian regime to avoid making the same mistakes. Beijing is also calculating how to best advance China’s own interests in light of Mr. Putin’s actions, as Russia becomes the increasingly junior member of the “no-limits” partnership that Beijing and Moscow forged on the eve of the Russian invasion.

Like the invasion, the recent political turmoil in Russia apparently caught Beijing by surprise, experts say.

“That it happened so suddenly and took everybody by surprise confirms the worst fear of the CCP – that they overlook some potential mobilization of … opposition somewhere in China, only realizing it too late,” says Dr. Sørensen, an expert in Chinese security strategy.      

Beijing worried by turbulence

China’s official reaction to the Wagner revolt was muted, and mirrored Beijing’s own priority – domestic political stability. “As Russia’s friendly neighbor and comprehensive strategic partner … China supports Russia in maintaining national stability,” Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning told a press conference on Monday. 

Nevertheless, China’s tightly controlled state media did publish comments voicing serious misgivings by Chinese experts on Russia. “The mutiny by the Wagner group reveals that social, economic, and political problems have been rising since the Russia-Ukraine conflict”  began, wrote Xu Wenhong, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, in the state-run China Daily newspaper.

Other commentaries also warned of profound and alarming divisions inside Russia. “The conflict between mercenaries and the Russian army is only the tip of the iceberg,” wrote Yu Sui, a professor at the China Center for Contemporary World Studies.

Such tensions are growing, Chinese experts believe. “The mutiny further intensified the political contradiction within Russia,” said Feng Yujun, professor at Fudan University in Shanghai and director of the Center for Russian and Central Asian Studies, in an interview published by Hong Kong’s Phoenix News. “The contradiction between the grassroots groups and the establishment has become a new turbulent factor in Russian domestic politics.”

Beijing’s concerns over what it calls the “Wagner Group incident” run deeper – especially given the Mr.  Prigozhin’s scathing criticisms of the Russian military’s failures, incompetence, and corruption. China modeled its military system on that of Russia, raising questions among Chinese military experts about how the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) would perform in combat.

Some Chinese military researchers acknowledge privately that “the [Ukraine] war is a disaster for the Russian military,” says a Western diplomat in Beijing. Given that the PLA has copied Russian military doctrine, the Chinese researchers are concerned that “if Russians have trouble making decisions at the lowest level, the PLA has the same problems but on steroids, due to the political commissars” who impose Communist party discipline in PLA units, the diplomat said. “They are studying what to learn from the conflict.”

China’s military is likely closely monitoring deficiencies in Russia’s military organization, and  how its armaments are stacking up against the Western weapons in Ukraine, says Alexander Korolev, senior lecturer in politics and international relations at the University of New South Wales in Sydney.

The PLA is “trying to learn from Russia’s mistakes in terms of responsiveness to challenges on the battlefield,” and may be reorganizing units as a result, says Dr. Korolev. Parallels between the Chinese and Russian militaries, weapons systems, and munitions have “disadvantages and advantages” he says – one benefit being that, in theory, they could more easily operate together and supply one another.

Economically, too, China’s planners are learning from the Russian experience to prepare to buttress the country against any future Western sanctions. They are striking better deals on Russian energy exports, while trying to avoid Europe’s mistake of becoming overly dependent on Russia’s oil and gas.        

Russian risk-taking

As questions linger about the implications of the recent turmoil for Mr. Putin and his leadership, Beijing is actively assessing how the mutiny's aftermath could impact China, given its growing interdependence with Russia.

Chinese military and security researchers voice “a lot of frustration, that Russian risk-taking behavior is hurting China and they have to adjust all the time,” says Dr. Sorenson. “The Chinese are saying the Russians are too unpredictable and unreliable.”

Yet while Beijing is troubled by what it views as rash actions by Moscow, it considers the partnership vital for its competition with the United States and its allies.

“China needs the Russian strategic partnership because of their long-term skepticism of Western intentions,” says Dr. Torigian. “While they’ll be worried about Russian collapse, or what they might need to do to support the Russians, I think losing Russia is … still a much larger challenge for them.”