From anti-narcotics to US-China military contacts, Biden-Xi talks make headway

U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping agreed on Wednesday to reestablish military-to-military contacts and reaffirmed an open phone line between the commanders in chief – vital steps toward reducing the risk of accidental conflict between the nuclear-armed superpowers.

On another key agenda item for the Biden administration, the leaders said they would cooperate to reduce the flow from China of precursor chemicals used to make the illegal drug fentanyl.

Beyond these specific outcomes, Messrs. Biden and Xi helped broadly establish a new footing for a relationship that has sunk into strife over the past five years, while setting out a vision for future cooperation. The two last met face-to-face in Indonesia a year ago.

Mr. Biden described his four hours of talks with Mr. Xi on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting as “some of the most constructive and productive discussions we’ve had.” Despite areas of disagreement, he said, “we’ve made some important progress.”

Mr. Xi also highlighted headway in the relationship. “We agreed to make the cooperation list longer and the pie of cooperation bigger,” he said in a speech at a welcome dinner hosted by U.S.-China groups in San Francisco Wednesday night.

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs summarized the meeting as “positive, comprehensive and constructive,” adding that “San Francisco should be a new starting point for stabilizing US-China relations.”

A shared responsibility

Both leaders stressed that as stewards of the world’s most consequential bilateral relationship, they must – at a minimum – avoid conflict. Competition mustn’t “veer into conflict,” Mr. Biden told Mr. Xi as their talks began. Mr. Xi agreed, saying “conflict and confrontation will have unbearable consequences for both sides.”

The two men also reiterated that direct communication, including face-to-face and by phone, is paramount to guarding against misunderstandings. Mr. Biden told reporters that he and Mr. Xi agreed that if either one has concerns, “we should pick up the phone and then call one another, and we’ll take the call.”

Yet while reaching concrete agreements and voicing a shared intent, the leaders chose to frame U.S.-China relations in fundamentally different ways. Mr. Biden cast the relationship as one where competition and cooperation can both take place simultaneously, whereas Mr. Xi said their nations must choose between the two paths.

“The No. 1 question for us is: Are we adversaries or partners?” Mr. Xi said in his dinner speech. China, he suggests, wants the latter. “If one sees the other side as a primary competitor ... it will only lead to ... misguided actions and unwanted results,” he said. “China is ready to be a partner and friend of the United States.”

Mr. Xi’s framing in part reflects China’s political culture, says Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center. “The Chinese always want [first] to define the relationship – are you my friend or my enemy?” she says, whereas the U.S. approach is more pragmatic and practical.

Moreover, Mr. Xi’s message is aimed in part at a broader global audience, before which Beijing wants to take the moral high ground of seeking to work together with Washington, says Ms. Sun. “Xi Jinping is making an appeal that the U.S. and China should settle their differences ... because that will be more beneficial to the global community,” she says.

Moments of meaningful progress

The modest but significant deals struck by Messrs. Xi and Biden focus on reducing risk and restoring key channels – with military contacts foremost among these.

The two sides agreed to resume high-level military-to-military communications, defense policy talks, and maritime consultations. They are also “resuming telephone conversations between theater commanders,” the White House said in a statement.

Calls between the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command and China’s Eastern Theater Command could help defuse a crisis in the case of an accident between the U.S. and Chinese militaries, which both operate in the South China and East China seas and the Taiwan Strait, experts say. Yet the potential remains for an unintended run-in.

“Those mil-mil dialogues are important in avoiding unintentional conflicts or accidents ... but the Chinese and the U.S. strategy of flying planes close to one another hasn’t been addressed,” says Dominic Chiu, senior analyst for China and Northeast Asia at Eurasia Group.

China’s agreement to cooperate with the United States on combating illegal drug manufacturing and trafficking, including the synthetic drug fentanyl, is likely to reduce the flow of precursor chemicals and pill presses to drug cartels, Mr. Biden said. The U.S. and China created a working group to coordinate law enforcement efforts on counternarcotics.

“China sympathizes deeply with the American people, especially the young, for the sufferings that fentanyl has inflicted upon them,” Mr. Xi said in his speech.

Additional agreements include governmental talks on addressing the risks of advanced artificial intelligence, as well as expanding people-to-people ties and direct flights between the two countries. For example, Mr. Xi pledged that China was ready to invite 50,000 young Americans to attend exchange and study programs in China over the next five years.

Managing disagreements

Both sides acknowledged that China and the U.S. have fundamental differences, including their approaches to Taiwan, a top priority issue for Beijing.

Mr. Xi asked Mr. Biden to stop arming Taiwan and to support China’s “peaceful reunification” with the democratic island, which China’s Communist Party-led government claims as part of its territory. In turn, Mr. Biden reiterated Washington’s support for the “one China” policy, which recognizes Beijing’s stance. He also called on China to show restraint in its military activity around Taiwan, which has sharply increased in recent years.

Overall on Taiwan, and other areas of disagreement, “both leaders wanted to put their best foot forward without making any concessions,” says Andrew Scobell, a distinguished fellow with the China program at the U.S. Institute of Peace.

Mr. Biden raised U.S. concerns over thorny issues such as China’s human rights violations and detention of U.S. citizens, as well as its “coercive activities” in the South China Sea. At Wednesday’s press conference, he said straight talk – “just being blunt with one another so there’s no misunderstanding” – is useful. 

Taking the long view, Mr. Xi told Mr. Biden at the onset of their meeting that the “China-U.S. relationship has never been smooth sailing. ... Yet, it has kept moving forward amid twists and turns. For two large countries like China and the United States, turning their back on each other is not an option.”