In China, Jake Sullivan cements a triumph of quiet diplomacy

As Americans prepare to celebrate Labor Day, U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan has been working overtime to keep the United States’ most crucial diplomatic relationship on an even keel.

Mr. Sullivan’s efforts paid off this week, as he made the first visit by a United States national security adviser to China in eight years, held unexpected talks with top Chinese leader Xi Jinping, and landed a rare meeting with China’s most senior military officer, General Zhang Youxia.

The three-day visit paved the way for a phone call in coming weeks between President Joe Biden and Mr. Xi, and for a possible in-person meeting later this year.

“Intense diplomacy matters,” Mr. Sullivan told a Beijing press conference as he wrapped up his visit late Thursday. His Beijing trip capped a series of unpublicized meetings he had held over the past 15 months with China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi.

During a U.S. campaign season in which many American politicians are hostile to China, this quiet diplomatic effort by Washington and Beijing has succeeded in reversing the past few years’ dangerous tailspin in relations between the world’s two superpowers, experts say.

Mr. Sullivan’s trip cements the idea that “talking to China … is not optional,” says Susan Thornton, a retired high-level U.S. diplomat and senior fellow at the Yale Law School Paul Tsai China Center. “It’s necessary for our national security,” she says. “It’s actually benefiting the United States” by fostering stability “in a world that’s looking more and more unpredictable,” she says.

Under-the-radar diplomacy works

In recent years, U.S.-China tensions have soared over Taiwan and the South China Sea as well as trade, technology, and China’s support for Moscow since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. Meanwhile, face-to-face dialogues were hampered when China closed its borders to most foreign travelers for three years during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Messrs. Biden and Xi met in Bali, Indonesia, in November 2022 to try to put a floor under the collapsing relationship. They pledged to resume regular communications. But these efforts were disrupted by a new crisis in February 2023, when a Chinese surveillance balloon flew over the continental U.S., only to be shot down by the U.S. military.

In this context, Mr. Biden dispatched Mr. Sullivan to lead multiple rounds of low-visibility meetings with Foreign Minister Wang, starting in May 2023. The talks were “very detailed, painstaking” and “an all-hands-on-deck effort” by senior U.S. and Chinese officials, Mr. Sullivan told reporters.

This set the stage for a successful summit between Messrs. Biden and Xi in Woodside, California, in November 2023 and led to progress in critical areas – restoring military-to-military communications and launching talks on artificial intelligence safeguards, among other topics. In all, the two sides opened some 20 communications channels. More broadly, the diplomacy has reduced the risk of misunderstanding and miscalculation between the two nuclear powers. “We’re going to keep at it,” Mr. Sullivan said.

“Talking has been restored, and relations have been stabilized to some extent,” says Ambassador Huang Ping, the Chinese consul general in New York. “We know we cannot afford confrontation or fighting, so we have to work together to manage differences,” he says.

U.S. scores meeting with top Chinese general

One significant sign of headway in military-to-military ties was Mr. Sullivan’s unprecedented meeting Thursday with General Zhang, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, China’s top military body.

“There is no substitute for … being able to sit across the table” from General Zhang and his team “to hear … their perspective on critical issues … whether it’s cross-Strait relations or the South China Sea,” said Mr. Sullivan. They agreed on a phone call between U.S. and Chinese theater commanders, a significant step to help operational-level commanders to avert or deal with any conflict.

Such contacts are vital, given the proximity at which Chinese and U.S. warplanes and navy ships conduct patrols at flash points such as the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea.

Vessels belonging to China and the Philippines, a U.S. treaty ally, have clashed recently near disputed shoals in the South China Sea. In Beijing, Mr. Sullivan reiterated the U.S. “ironclad commitment” to honor its mutual defense treaty with the Philippines. But he also stressed that “nobody is looking for a crisis” and encouraged direct talks between Manila and Beijing.

“Zhang Youxia is … a top-level military person within Xi Jinping’s circle and [U.S. officials] haven’t met with him before, so it’s very significant to have that first meeting,” says Ms. Thornton. 

Fundamental differences remain

Both U.S. and Chinese officials acknowledge that the ongoing dialogues have not solved fundamental differences between them. Indeed, Mr. Xi stressed to Mr. Sullivan that China and the U.S. do not view the relationship the same way.

“The number one issue is to develop a right strategic perception,” he said, according to a Chinese government summary of his remarks. When the U.S. and China engage, he said, “they need first and foremost to find a good answer to the overarching question: Are China and the United States rivals or partners?”

Yet by committing to talks, Washington and Beijing have made headway in managing the relationship – both by avoiding misunderstandings and by anticipating potential problems before they arise.

The two sides “have a track record of trying to get ahead of periods that may add tensions and frictions,” says Brian Hart, a fellow with the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. For example, he says, “they knew 2024 would be a tumultuous year given the [presidential] elections in Taiwan and the U.S.”

China’s leaders “recognize that elections are sensitive periods,” Mr. Sullivan says, and Vice President Kamala Harris supports high-level communications between Washington and Beijing as a way to responsibly manage the relationship.

The extent to which current dialogues would continue under a potential second Trump administration, though, is unclear, experts say. “They’re much more leery about dialogues and talking to the Chinese,” says Ms. Thornton. If Mr. Trump is elected, “I think you’ll see some pressure to cut back on who is involved in communicating with China,” she predicts.

One trend that is not likely to change is the revival of people-to-people exchanges between the U.S. and China. “The lack of face-to-face engagement really creates trouble,” says Ambassador Huang. “The deficit of mutual understanding has gone so far, so we need to bring people together.”