As world’s biggest election nears, defections hurt India’s anti-Modi alliance
Rahul Gandhi, a senior leader of India's main opposition Congress party, attends a roadshow in Mumbai, India, March 16, at the end of his two-month march across the country.
Hemanshi Kamani/Reuters
Tens of thousands gathered in Mumbai’s sprawling Shivaji Park this weekend to see Rahul Gandhi and other opposition leaders formally launch their campaign for next month’s general election.
The mega rally marked the end of Mr. Gandhi’s second cross-country march – a 15-state journey aimed at rallying voters against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) – and featured numerous jabs at Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
But while the Congress party star and grandson of former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi marched over 4,000 miles, the opposition’s main weapon against the BJP was splintering.
Why We Wrote This
As India’s opposition alliance launches its election campaign, some members have abandoned ship, underscoring the challenges of political cooperation.
The Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A.), a coalition of 28 political parties opposing the BJP, has faced significant setbacks in recent months.
High-profile members have abandoned the alliance due to ideological differences, difficult seat-sharing negotiations, and personality clashes. Analysts and former I.N.D.I.A. members have cited the Congress party’s self-centered approach as a key reason for the coalition’s underwhelming performance. Another factor: an overall lack of confidence that it can beat a no-holds-barred campaign by the BJP, which has used Hindu nationalism to rally and expand its support base.
“They don’t seem to believe they can succeed,” says political commentator Neerja Chowdhury, author of “How Prime Ministers Decide.”
She notes that several opposition leaders are also under pressure by federal investigation agencies, contributing to a sense of demoralization. On top of that, data released Sunday shows the BJP pulling in $814 million in funding via India’s recently scrapped electoral bonds system – five times the amount of the second-highest earner. “The perception battle is being fought and won by Narendra Modi,” she says, and in the face of a political Goliath, “the general tendency [among some opposition parties] is to hold my little flock together for a future battle.”
Alliance founder switches sides
I.N.D.I.A. was established last June when Nitish Kumar, chief minister of Bihar, convened a meeting of 15 opposition parties hoping to collectively run against the BJP, which swept 303 out of 543 parliamentary seats during the 2019 election. From the start, the largest member and de facto leader of I.N.D.I.A. was the 138-year-old Congress, which won 52 seats.
The first major blow to the coalition came in January, when Mr. Kumar, leader of the Janata Dal United in Bihar, decided to leave I.N.D.I.A. to join the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance.
Kishan Chand Tyagi, general secretary of the Janata Dal United and a former member of Parliament, defends Mr. Kumar’s decision, blaming the Congress’ uncooperative stance for his party’s departure. He says that to effectively challenge the BJP, Congress needs internal reform.
“Our reason to quit the alliance is the apathetic and disappointing attitude of the Congress party,” says Mr. Tyagi. “They would never discuss anything with its alliance partners. There is a toxic caucus in the Congress, and till it is removed there will be no improvement. Today’s Congress party is incapable of fighting BJP and Modi both.”
Friction over seat-sharing
Another pain point was Congress’ focus on the Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra (“Unite India Justice March”), led by Mr. Gandhi, whom the party presents as a future prime minister.
Critics say Congress could have spent this critical time ironing out issues within the alliance. “The entire party was focused on this [march], neglecting seat adjustments or planning with opposition leaders,” says Ms. Chowdhury. “Some suggest he [Mr. Gandhi] is focused on 2029, not 2024.”
Internal tensions were apparent on the road as well.
Despite pulling large crowds throughout the two-month march, Mr. Gandhi encountered difficulty in securing the participation of West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, who heads the Trinamool Congress party, due to friction over seat-sharing arrangements in the state. Ms. Banerjee has decided to contest all 42 parliamentary seats of her state independently, after seat-sharing talks with Congress failed.
Taking on the BJP
To be sure, I.N.D.I.A. still has a cohort of enthusiastic backers. At the mega rally in Mumbai, Mr. Gandhi stood alongside leaders from several different states and parties, including Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray from Maharashtra; Muthuvel Karunanidhi Stalin from Tamil Nadu; Farooq Abdullah and Mehbooba Mufti from Jammu and Kashmir; and Tejashwi Yadav from Bihar. Each represents a unique regional party.
In Uttar Pradesh, India’s largest state, contributing 80 members to Parliament, the Congress has struck a seat-sharing agreement with the Samajwadi Party. Those adhering to the alliance are adamant that the BJP has failed to address people’s concerns.
“We will remind people that the BJP, once vocal about inflation, is now taxing basic commodities like milk,” says Fakhrul Hassan, spokesperson for the Samajwadi Party. “During the BJP’s decadelong rule, they’ve failed to generate employment for the youth, leading to increased inflation. We trust the public to oust the BJP’s anti-people government. Our choice for prime minister will be determined later.”
Yet it wouldn’t be surprising, says Ms. Chowdhury, if the public does not trust the opposition, choosing instead to join the BJP’s camp.
“They possess resources, machinery, and a charismatic leader who reigns as the king of Hindu hearts, leveraging Hindu nationalism,” she says. “[Mr. Modi] appeals to aspirational India, offering promises of progress and prosperity. ... On the opposing side, there’s a lack of clear leadership, a coherent narrative, and the determination to win or mount a substantial challenge.”