Despite dip in election trust, Indians trek miles to cast their ballots

Mohammad Rafiq Sheikh took his time casting his ballot this morning in the northern Indian town of Ramban.

After pressing the button for his party on the electronic voting machine (EVM), he carefully waited to hear the machine’s beep tone, and then to see the correct party symbol appear on screen, before leaving the government school-turned-polling station. 

“I don’t want to waste my vote,” says Mr. Sheikh, waiting for his 10 family members to file out of the building. “Even one vote can decide a winner.”

They are some of the first people to vote in India’s massive, high-stakes election. Nearly a billion voters are expected to flock to the polls over the next month to elect 543 members to India’s Parliament – and determine whether Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will win a third term in office. This is despite growing mistrust of the Election Commission of India (ECI) and concerns about the authenticity of votes cast via EVMs. Indeed, for a country grappling with a democratic backslide, the enduring faith in India’s electoral system is a point of hope.

Mohan Guruswamy, a political analyst and the chairman of the New Delhi-based think tank Centre for Policy Analysis, says that India’s election process may not be perfect, but it’s fairly foolproof, and still has buy-in from voters of all backgrounds.

“It reflects the mandate and will of the people quite accurately,” he says. “There is a proper process of counting votes, and if you have doubts about the results as a candidate, you can get the votes physically checked on demand.”

“Impossible to subvert”?

Approximately 50 countries are slated to hold elections this year. But in some, including the United States and Pakistan, public confidence in the electoral process is declining, undermined by various factors, from misinformation on social media to censorship of opposition voices. 

Across the border, in Pakistan, an abrupt pause in polling results during the February election sparked allegations of brazen rigging by the country’s powerful military. Supporters of imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan took to the streets to protest.

But Mr. Guruswamy maintains that India’s election system is less vulnerable to overt manipulation. 

“In Pakistan, you have got the military sitting with bayonets and bullets deciding what to do. In India, you have millions of officials conducting the elections, so it is impossible to subvert, as election machinery is so big,” he says. “It has become an unimaginative trend and habit to paint everything rigged.”

Yet Indian voters’ trust in the elections has also declined over the past five years, according to a prepoll survey conducted by the Lokniti program at the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) in Delhi. It found that ahead of the 2019 elections, 51% of participants trusted the ECI to a “great extent,” but now that number has dwindled to 28%. 

Sudheendra Kulkarni, former adviser to the prime minister during the 1999-2004 BJP government, says this is the first time in Indian electoral history that the credibility of the ECI has been called into question.

“The commission appears to be exhibiting bias,” he says, noting its failure to stop the BJP’s use of polarizing topics, such as religion, to garner votes – something that is prohibited in the ECI’s campaign guidelines. 

Mr. Kulkarni further highlights changes to the ECI appointment process. The selection committee previously comprised the sitting prime minister, a Cabinet minister, a leader from the opposition, and the nation’s chief justice. The latter was removed by a new law last December, creating suspicion about the process by giving a majority to the ruling party. 

There’s concern brewing around the use of voting machines as well, with 45% of the CSDS-Lokniti survey respondents saying that manipulation of EVMs by the ruling party is “somewhat” or “highly” likely. 

The importance of trust

India swapped paper ballots for EVMs in 2004 for logistical ease and to prevent voter fraud.

But a coalition of over two dozen opposition political parties, known as I.N.D.I.A., has been questioning the authenticity of the machines throughout its campaign.

India National Congress party’s Rahul Gandhi, the de facto leader of I.N.D.I.A., stated that Mr. Modi can’t win without EVMs. 

“We requested the Election Commission to show us the EVMs and allow our experts to examine them, but they refused,” Mr. Gandhi said during a public rally last month.

The Supreme Court of India is currently deliberating on the matter, entertaining petitions advocating for the cross-verification of all votes cast on EVMs with paper slips generated through the voter-verified paper audit trail system. Currently, paper verification is mandatory only in five randomly selected polling stations per constituency. 

Acknowledging the paramount importance of voter trust and the integrity of the electoral mechanism, the court deliberated on potential remedies and the need for stringent punitive measures to stop any fraud. The court reserved its judgment on Thursday, but did note that every year, “the percentage of people who have been voting has grown,” suggesting that concerns about the election process are not hindering political participation. 

On the ground in the Udhampur constituency, that appears to hold true.

First-time voter Sumaiya Bano Mir, who teaches at a seminary in Chanderkote village, was jubilant after casting her first ballot.

“I want people’s needs to be fulfilled. We live in a village without a road. Even though the BJP has been doing well, our family always votes for the Congress party, so I did the same,” says Ms. Mir, while expressing her faith in the election process. “We are hopeful that our votes will help Congress come in power.”

Sore loser phenomenon

Experts note that allegations of voter fraud – credible or otherwise – often come from the losing party. This was the case in Pakistan, and in the United States, when former President Donald Trump refused to accept the results of the 2020 election, leading to the Jan. 6 riot.  

But in India, Mr. Modi – a populist leader who could easily mobilize supporters in protest of an election result – is extremely popular, and broadly expected to win a third term. His backers, including Billo Devi in Dhalwas village, aren’t concerned about EVMs or ECI conduct. 

“We have got everything because of the BJP,” says Ms. Devi, who walked 90 minutes to cast her vote. “My family received 120,000 rupees [$1,438] for construction of our house with the help of Modi’s [welfare] schemes. We are now hoping to get free ration too.”