More than a strongman? In India, coalition politics will be Modi’s third-term test.

Having taken his oath and appointed his Cabinet, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi embarked on his third term in office this week. But all is not the same in Delhi. 

During the recent general elections, Mr. Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party fell 32 seats short of the majority mark in India’s Lok Sabha, the lower house of Parliament, turning two regional parties into kingmakers. After 10 years of Mr. Modi wielding nearly absolute authority, this administration will rely heavily on the support of the Telugu Desam Party and Janata Dal United, whose leaders cosigned the new government but have also made it clear that they don’t agree with everything the BJP stands for. 

The coalition dynamics will test Mr. Modi’s political acumen as he navigates the diverse demands of his allies and party. The future of his government hinges on this balance, with major implications for Indian democracy. 

The BJP still holds significant power, but Zoya Hasan, professor emerita at the Centre for Political Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, says the election verdict “marks a return to coalition politics.”

She says it will be a challenge for the prime minister to temper his party’s Hindu nationalist agenda, noting the complete lack of Muslim appointees in his new Cabinet, and perhaps more so to let go of its centralized style of governance. 

“Running a coalition requires consensus and compromise by all parties,” she says. “So far, [Mr. Modi’s] had his way. It will not be easy for him to change his strongman leadership style.”

Can Mr. Modi lead a coalition?

Mr. Modi has thrice served as chief minister of India’s Gujarat state and twice as prime minister, all with a clear majority in the state assembly and Lok Sabha, respectively. Armed with a strong mandate, he’s had a leadership style characterized by decisiveness and an ability to push through his agenda with relative ease.

However, this new government requires Mr. Modi to cultivate a spirit of collaboration and negotiation.

Amarjit Singh Dulat, a former Indian spy chief and an adviser to the prime minister during the 2000-04 BJP government, says that India has seen several coalitions fail due to differences between parties. Back in 1998, the BJP formed a coalition government that lasted only a year before allies withdrew support.

Experts say it sometimes comes down to personality.

“The question here is, How much is Modi going to adjust?” says Mr. Dulat. “Temperamentally, he is not a coalition man.” 

That said, there are areas that experts are watching closely for signs of stress, including the government’s attitude toward religious minorities and caste.

In the lead-up to elections, BJP leaders delivered fiery Hindu nationalist speeches and objected to the reservation of education and government jobs for Muslims, India’s largest religious minority. Mr. Modi pledged to eliminate “religion-based reservations” if reelected. But since then, Telugu Desam Party leaders have doubled down on advocating for such quotas, insisting that they serve a social justice purpose. At the same time, Janata Dal United spokesperson K.C. Tyagi said the party would pursue a nationwide caste census, something the BJP has worked hard to avoid.

Neerja Chowdhury, author of “How Prime Ministers Decide,” expects Mr. Modi to avoid polarizing issues and focus on things like jobs and cost of living. 

“The mood in the country has shifted. The [parties allied to the BJP] have Muslims as their vote base, and [the BJP] will worry about this,” she says. “Modi will stick to governance issues.”

Opposition bides its time 

The opposition has accepted the election results but has not conceded defeat, seeing the BJP’s losses as a rejection of the Modi brand of leadership. 

Congress party President Mallikarjun Kharge, representing a coalition of over two dozen opposition parties known as I.N.D.I.A., has stated that the alliance will take “appropriate steps at the appropriate time” to fulfill the people’s desire for change.

Shazi Ilmi, a national spokesperson for the BJP, insists her party is not shaken. The BJP won more seats than any other party in the Lok Sabha and retained all major Cabinet positions, including defense, internal security, finance, and foreign affairs.

“The government has been formed, but Congress still can’t digest it,” she says, adding that the BJP will collaborate effectively with its allied parties. Ms. Ilmi emphasizes the shared goal of making India the world’s third-largest economy, and of addressing rural distress. 

Yet some experts believe the opposition’s wait-and-see policy could bear fruit.

Sudheendra Kulkarni, a former adviser to the prime minister during the 1999-2004 BJP government, does not believe the current government will last the full five-year term, and predicts that the country’s political landscape will shift dramatically in the next couple of years.

“In the next two years, the BJP is going to lose several state elections, which will further weaken the ruling party,” he says. “For a government to last its full term, it must have the support of the people – support of the people at the center, and support of the people in the states. It will weaken the hands of the prime minister, and that will set in motion new political developments.”

A more vibrant democracy

To some extent, India’s political landscape has already changed. Not only will the BJP need to sacrifice a degree of control in this new era, but it must also do so while facing a strengthened opposition. 

Over six weeks and 642 million votes, I.N.D.I.A. managed to secure 234 seats in the Lok Sabha, falling short of the majority mark but still becoming a formidable voting bloc.

In the past, Mr. Modi has frequently been accused of suppressing dissent. At one point last year, the government had suspended nearly two-thirds of opposition parliamentarians, leaving the BJP almost oppositionless. One suspended member called it a “betrayal of parliamentary democracy.”

But with the opposition alliance holding nearly half of the Lok Sabha, experts say that sort of suppression will be far more difficult. Ms. Chowdhury, the author, says that in a democracy, the opposition should be strong and vibrant – and for arguably the first time in years, it is.

“The government will not be able to ram through legislation without a discussion,” she says. “They will not be able to throw out parliamentarians or suspend them. So opposition will make life difficult for the government.”

Editor's note: This story has been updated to correct the spelling of Janata Dal United.