Five years after India stripped it of statehood, Kashmir prepares for elections

For the first time after a decade of political upheaval and disempowerment, 8.7 million voters in the north Indian region of Jammu and Kashmir have the chance to elect their next government. 

The opportunity follows profound changes in the region since the last state elections in 2014, including the removal of the region’s statehood in 2019. The revocation of Article 370, which had granted Jammu and Kashmir special autonomy, led to the region’s division into two federal territories – Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh – and placed both under Delhi’s direct control.

Authorities repeatedly postponed elections, citing security concerns. Indeed, some wondered if they ever would come.

Yet at the urging of the Supreme Court, the Election Commission of India stated on Friday that local assembly elections will be held next month, with polling dates set for Sept. 18, Sept. 25, and Oct. 1, and results expected shortly after. It will be one of the region’s fastest assembly elections, and Delhi is planning to deploy tens of thousands of troops to prevent violence. 

The announcement has raised hopes for more local representation in an administration currently controlled by bureaucrats. Although the new government will have reduced legislative powers compared with previous state assemblies, experts view this as a crucial step toward greater political empowerment – and possibly restoration of statehood.

Rekha Chowdhary, who taught political science at the University of Jammu, says elections will help bridge the gap between the people and their government.

“There has been a severe political vacuum in Jammu and Kashmir, and people have been missing the electoral process,” she says. “Having elections after 10 years is certainly the beginning of change.”

Kashmir’s long fight for agency

The disputed, majority-Muslim Himalayan region has been the subject of multiple wars between India and Pakistan, and when Jammu and Kashmir accepted Indian rule 70 years ago, it was on the condition that the state would retain its special autonomy and right to self-determination. But the conflict has beat on, with Indian forces flooding the region to combat separatist insurgencies, and Delhi deciding five years ago to unilaterally revoke Article 370 in the name of further integrating the region. 

That decision was followed by a monthslong communication blackout, and the arrest of major political leaders and other critics of Indian rule, some of whom remain behind bars today. Along with their absence, most anti-Indian parties (which typically called to boycott elections anyway) have been banned or dissolved, leaving only mainstream, pro-Indian parties to participate in the upcoming race.

But Kashmiris still have a choice. India’s 2024 general elections saw record-high turnout throughout the Kashmir Valley, where multiple parliamentary districts voted against proxies of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, and for local parties they perceived as more independent or critical of Delhi’s approach to Kashmir. 

Former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah, who was among those imprisoned in 2019, expects similar results come October. He believes the primary task of the newly elected assembly should be to demonstrate to India and the world that the people of Jammu and Kashmir reject the decisions made on Aug. 5, 2019. 

“Then we start undoing what was done to us,” he told reporters Friday evening in Srinagar, in response to the elections announcement. “It is going to be a fight to restore statehood. Nothing is going to come to us easily. Even these elections did not come to us easily.”

A chance to “get things done”

Noor Muhammad Baba, a political analyst, is more skeptical, noting that the 90-seat assembly will still be operating within a framework where significant powers remain with the Delhi-appointed lieutenant governor. 

But “at the very least, [these elections will] provide people with representatives to address their concerns, which is currently lacking,” he says. “Access to higher bureaucracy and the lieutenant governor is challenging for ordinary citizens.”

It’s a welcome change for Ubair Shah, who runs a cold storage business in south Kashmir’s Pulwama District and is feeling hopeful about the upcoming elections. 

“Right now, our only access [to the government] is through the bureaucracy,” he says. “While there have been some investment-friendly policies, it’s not always easy for bureaucrats to fully understand our issues. With elected representatives, it would be easier to communicate our needs and get things done.”

Arif Akhoon, a Srinagar-based fellow at New Delhi’s Institute of Company Secretaries of India, agrees that the elections could help ease the daily struggles faced by residents of Jammu and Kashmir. 

“Being stopped multiple times on the highway, facing hurdles in obtaining security clearances for government jobs or passports, and witnessing our natural resources deteriorate – these are the areas that need attention,” says Mr. Akhoon. “If elections can address these issues, it would signify meaningful change.”